tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-59425682772331094222024-03-17T02:49:56.976+08:00單親爸爸撞牆記@懶系投資法失去生命中最重要的一半後,與女兒相依為命,即使頻頻撞牆,仍是要繼續生活,繼續懶系投資法。風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comBlogger197125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-6164906268406451892024-03-16T20:00:00.001+08:002024-03-16T20:00:00.140+08:00 2023年度IB股息稅詳情<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 開始之前,如果你未看過「</span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/2022/04/blog-post_22.html" style="text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">投資美國市場必知的稅務懶人包</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">」一文,建議先去閱讀,有助你全面了解各類不同美國投資物的稅率處理,以理解接下來的講解。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-6407cfc7-7fff-5e4d-8061-354f828dc7a8"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 每年1至2月,是IBKR和各證券商退稅的月份。完成退稅後,IBKR在3月份就會釋出一份「股息報告」,這份報告總結計算了所有預繳稅項和退稅金額,得出去年度每一檔標的在每一個月份的實質派息金額和實質收取的股息金額。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 相對去年,今年IBKR的2023年度股息報告較去年稍遲才釋出,幾天前出現在「業績與報告」-「稅務文件內」。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事實上,IBKR的退稅詳細資料是放在1月份和2月份的活動報表內,你也可以找出來再自行人手計算(詳見「</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/62582435" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">如何自行計算IB的退稅</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">」),但需要利用Excel做一系列「資料按摩」(Data Massage),相當繁複,股息報告就是幫你做了這件事。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">各證券商在退稅處理上並不相同</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 美國稅務,是全世界最複雜的東西之一,每家證券商處理退稅都不盡相同,有的甚至幹脆不退,要求你自行向美國國稅局申請退稅。就算是同一券商,不同時間的處理方式可能都有所不同。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以往傳統券商大都以保守姿態處理,寧願多收也不願少收,近年隨著投資人對美股投資的認識不斷深入和廣泛,情況其實已改善了不少。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 作為投資平台龍頭的Interactive Brokers (IBKR),一般的做法,是除了債券、ETD和不需繳交股息稅的優先股外,其他類型標的就會在派息(或稱配息)時先預先扣取30%股息稅(稱為預繳股息稅),然後在隔年1月或2月依照一定原則退回部份或全部已繳的股息稅。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 從2022年10月開始,IBKR對於一般免稅市政債券CEF(例如NEA、NZF),在派息時已不再扣取任何預繳股息稅,只在第二年的退稅月份(1月與2月)作出一點點調整(多數市政債券CEF的配息是有極少數的應稅項目),這方面是效法競爭對手嘉信證券(Charles Schwab)的做法。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,對市政債券CEF不收取預繳稅的做法似乎只限於免稅市政債券CEF,應稅市政債券CEF類別的,例如BBN,仍是沿用以往一貫做法,即先收取30%股息稅,在第二年退回。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 2023年度在IBKR投資BBN實質股息稅為0.12%,NEA實質股息稅為0.16%,NZF實質股息稅為0.03%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,有一些券商可能連甚麼是應稅市政債券(Taxable Municipal Bond)都不懂(詳見「</span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post_22.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">你可能不知道的固定收益資產–美國應稅市政債券</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">」),見到「Taxable」的字樣就以「寧可錯過,不可放過」的態度處理,可能沒有任何退稅。其實所謂Taxable指的是美國稅務居民收入計稅,不是外國適用的股息稅。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">如何取得IBKR股息報告</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 進入IBKR的網頁版帳戶管理主頁,在主選單選擇「業績與報告」-「稅務文件」,就可以見到最新年度(2023年)的股息報告:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT7MzlvMiQlKIzU0oC3b299DEafZN67H2Oyghgc2YK6BcGNiDQY3GgT85Jt9iN7us3iiS5Q87aw6GSCFHoHCWw4JU2XrEMs6-tt8iv3hR5Bl4IDLrxSxEv1fKF0H4ZEODegpfJH8Aj1iQnBPvpUYvUqfGghMY-734_WmrvandF3hPY4mB_wQ5Dd839YWBF/s1175/20240315%20-%202023%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6IB%E8%82%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%A8%85%E8%A9%B3%E6%83%85-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="585" data-original-width="1175" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT7MzlvMiQlKIzU0oC3b299DEafZN67H2Oyghgc2YK6BcGNiDQY3GgT85Jt9iN7us3iiS5Q87aw6GSCFHoHCWw4JU2XrEMs6-tt8iv3hR5Bl4IDLrxSxEv1fKF0H4ZEODegpfJH8Aj1iQnBPvpUYvUqfGghMY-734_WmrvandF3hPY4mB_wQ5Dd839YWBF/w400-h199/20240315%20-%202023%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6IB%E8%82%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%A8%85%E8%A9%B3%E6%83%85-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們可以下載為HTML檔或CSV檔,前者方便直接閱讀,後者方便利用Excel或其他工具進行進一步分析統計。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 當我們以HTML格式打開股息報告,會發現報告為五個部份:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp-GuKLlTCRIGp9_ghmndjC0vDVSsmTKctrbKhVKbxNhDMh6DKjPC-iCfouxBqYge9W3KkgbQqun0YpQtLqv9XwP92M29l3C7VqGwDkaaZu4MHasvooYYDoLhKR5QGUOXkvx30zHm0FCamHvmHvv3P8BGsV-NQQctUf0HuIUpHXhMGLukT0KgR1R0WYvmN/s931/20240315%20-%202023%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6IB%E8%82%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%A8%85%E8%A9%B3%E6%83%85-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="931" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp-GuKLlTCRIGp9_ghmndjC0vDVSsmTKctrbKhVKbxNhDMh6DKjPC-iCfouxBqYge9W3KkgbQqun0YpQtLqv9XwP92M29l3C7VqGwDkaaZu4MHasvooYYDoLhKR5QGUOXkvx30zHm0FCamHvmHvv3P8BGsV-NQQctUf0HuIUpHXhMGLukT0KgR1R0WYvmN/w400-h296/20240315%20-%202023%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6IB%E8%82%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%A8%85%E8%A9%B3%E6%83%85-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Account Information: 你的IBKR戶口資料;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Dividend Detail:每一次派息的具體資料,包括標的編號(Symbol)、國家(Country)、報告日期(Report Date)、除息日期(Ex Date)、持有股數(Shares)、股息類別(Revenue Type)、股息金額(Gross in USD)與實稅繳納的股息(Withhold in USD),請留意,股息金額已是計算退稅後的實質收取金額;</span></p></li></ol><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ1NfUI5WzUcYqfJFGaAhqBhlcRp6GxGwq1wZ2eWwSFgiZw7bSZv-E9QFFCF3VKBWjZF6FdGP0V9cGY-3MVEH7njS9g8mfpe8i9ThKFJVPAEZqMwV9R4ADU4bq7wHnc2O8PFJ2fn8BgU-jcwbdvgvfb-1zGabq6IhGGYUN_RM2GPR7blawMLhy-p0-s5oB/s1172/20240315%20-%202023%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6IB%E8%82%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%A8%85%E8%A9%B3%E6%83%85-4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="83" data-original-width="1172" height="29" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ1NfUI5WzUcYqfJFGaAhqBhlcRp6GxGwq1wZ2eWwSFgiZw7bSZv-E9QFFCF3VKBWjZF6FdGP0V9cGY-3MVEH7njS9g8mfpe8i9ThKFJVPAEZqMwV9R4ADU4bq7wHnc2O8PFJ2fn8BgU-jcwbdvgvfb-1zGabq6IhGGYUN_RM2GPR7blawMLhy-p0-s5oB/w400-h29/20240315%20-%202023%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6IB%E8%82%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%A8%85%E8%A9%B3%E6%83%85-4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><ol start="3" style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Payment in Lieu Detail:與Dividend Detail沒有分別,都是用於描述向賬戶支付的現金股息;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Dividend Revenue Summary:依股息類別的股息總數統計。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Dividend Summary by Country:依國家統計的股息總數。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> Dividend(普通股息)和Payment in Lieu(代替股息支付)兩者的分別是,前者針對直接從發行人或其代理人收到的付款,後者則是指從發行人或發行代理人以外的地方收到的付款。對投資者而言,兩者無實質分別,相加就是總共收到的現金股息/利息。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> Payment in Lieu發生的其中一個原因,是你參加了IBKR的Stock Yield Enhancement Program,證券商可以將你的標的質押或借出給另一客戶作沽空用途。如果你擁有的標的在支付股息時,剛好被IBKR質押或借出,為不影響你的權益,IBKR會代發行人或發行代理人派出相同金額的股息,這類股息就會被歸類於Payment in Lieu。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 雖然HTML格式的股息報表已提供了一些小計和總計,但如果我們想進一步統計每檔標的全年總派息金額、股息稅率等等,還需自行計算,這時我們可以下載CSV格式的股息報告,然後在Excel(或其他試算軟件)內進行統計分析。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">2023年度股息稅率總結</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 根據我的IB組合內的股息報告,2023年IBKR大致的股息處理情況如下:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">所有美國普通股和股票ETF,例如AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL、NVDA、QQQ之類,一如既往收取30%股息稅率;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">加拿大SSF和REITs,一如既往收取15%股息稅率;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">所有美國國債,直接不用繳交股息稅;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">所有公司債券,包括美國和非美國的,直接不用繳交股息稅;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">ETD、非美國優先股及特殊類型的優先股(例如C-N、DDT),直接不用繳交股息稅;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">所有新加坡REITs與Business Trust,直接不用繳交股息稅;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">香港股票,不用繳交股息稅,但如果是持有香港的H股(例如中資銀行股),派息金額已扣繳10%股息稅率;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">免稅市政債券CEF,從2022年10月開始直接不用繳交股息稅,但在隔年1至2月會有調整,視派息類別會補扣一點點股息稅。2023年度,NEA的實際股息稅率約0.16%,NZF的實際股息稅率約0.03%;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">應稅市政債券CEF,每次派息先被扣取30%股息稅,在隔年1至2月退回接近大部份。2023年度,BBN的退稅比率約99.6%,實際股息稅率約0.12%;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">債券CEF,每次派息會先被扣取30%股息稅,在隔年1至2月退回部份。2023年度,GOF的實際股息稅率約1.51%,PTY的實際股息稅率約18.91%;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">美國REITs CEF,每次派息會先被扣取30%股息稅,在隔年1至2月退回部份。2023年度,RQI的實際股息稅率約16.89%;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">美國高級貸款CEF,每次派息會先被扣取30%股息稅,在隔年1至2月視情況可能退回一小部份。2023年度,VVR的實際股息稅率約28.61%。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">美國國債ETF,我雖然不持有,但據我所知,已直接不用繳交股息稅。</span></p></li></ol><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">派息的收入類型</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在IBKR股息報告中,每一次的派息收入都包含一個或以上的收入類型(Revenue Type),不同的收入類型可以是免稅或應稅項目。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們知道,可免稅的項目有以下這幾個類型:,</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Foreign source income:國外來源收入;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Return of capital (ROC):配發本金;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Qualified Interest Income (QII):合格利息(例如國債、市政債券);</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Short-term capital gain:短期資本利得(一年以內);</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Long-term capital gain:長期資本利得(一年以上)。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,以上只是屬於一般的免稅分類,具體來說,以下是IBKR可能出現的收入類型包括但不限於:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Ordinary Dividend:普通的股票派息,屬於應稅項目,依不同國家的稅率為準則;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Return of Capital:就是我們在基金類派息中常見的ROC,以本金配發的股息,屬於免稅項目;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Bond Interest:指債券派出的利息,屬於免稅項目;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Interest-Related Dividends from a RIC:通過投資公司收到的利息轉成的股息,例如通過投資高收益債券CEF/ETF或國債CEF/ETF收取到的債券利息,再經由基金公司派發成為股息,屬於免稅項目;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Interest:指ETD或債券關聯的優先票據派出的利息,屬於免稅項目;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Federal Tax Exempt:特指聯邦政府免稅的收入,通常見於免稅市政債券CEF/ETF的派息,屬於免稅項目;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Long Term Capital Gain:持有一年以上的長期資本利得,屬於免稅項目;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Section 897 Capital Gain:根據1980年美國國會頒布的《外國投資不動產稅法》(FIRPTA)第897條,外國投資者投資美國房產所產生的資本利得收益需要納稅,通常見於房地產投資信託基金或相關ETF/CEF,屬於應稅項目。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Section 897 Not Qualified Dividend:根據1980年美國國會頒布的《外國投資不動產稅法》(FIRPTA)第897條,外國投資者投資美國房產所產生的收益,包括股息都需要納稅,通常見於房地產投資信託基金或相關ETF/CEF,屬於應稅項目。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-left: 24pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">......</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註1:每月我定期在Patreon公開自己的真實投資組合變化,其中包括美股、台股、國債、公司債、市政債、ETD、優先股、CEF、SSF、REITs等等,並有詳細的市況分析與預測,歡迎加入Patreon一起討論。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註2:投以上提及的公司及標的沒有任何投資建議成份。投資是個人行為,敬請自行研究並自負盈虧與責任。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註3:以上資訊純屬個人分享,資訊不保證準確,如有疑問,請諮詢你的稅務顧問。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">會員</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-35769087177556627402024-02-22T20:00:00.003+08:002024-02-22T20:00:00.143+08:00 全面評價美國房地產投資信託基金CEF<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 今天我們來聊一聊近年備受市場唾棄的板塊——房地產投資信託基金(REITs)。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-1dbdb3c4-7fff-59f7-79d1-7da74ecfc44e"><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">REITs的走勢</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 2022年美國聯儲局開始加息週期,由於利率的瘋狂上升使借貸與資本成本也大幅上升,減緩了房地產領域的收購與開發。另一方面,在利率CP值的比較下,市場資金流向收益率更高、風險更低的國債和高評級公司債,以及話題性極強的科技股,全球房地產投資信託基金價格皆遭受了沉重打擊。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 人的記憶是短暫的,大家可能早已忘記REITs也曾叱咤一時,在2022年之前,房地產投資信託基金擁有超過15年的光輝歲月。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">就以Cohen & Steers Qlty Inc Realty Fund Inc (RQI)這檔美國REITs CEF為例,從RQI創立的2002年至2021年底20年間,儘管經歷過金融海潚的大跌浪,RQI的年化回報率接近11%,跑贏美股SPY指數。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNbxl_6zPiiMdzGiICkwXDJGFXtMT2O8ot_au9P-1BOZmXaZDwIpW9D2EljOJO59lFYUJ3WbcKpfFkPoQHCqsj4SlaRUDqjQhG2rFHaKFVPJ8rHe1Px25B7cON7XdjFtTKJgjNQ91TL1R39m43Fbz0NpM3aECCuvn_jh6F4iPWSezTJs9ZfwKki0W3hgBo/s841/20240220%20-%20%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E8%A9%95%E5%83%B9%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BF%A1%E8%A8%97%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91CEF-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="365" data-original-width="841" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNbxl_6zPiiMdzGiICkwXDJGFXtMT2O8ot_au9P-1BOZmXaZDwIpW9D2EljOJO59lFYUJ3WbcKpfFkPoQHCqsj4SlaRUDqjQhG2rFHaKFVPJ8rHe1Px25B7cON7XdjFtTKJgjNQ91TL1R39m43Fbz0NpM3aECCuvn_jh6F4iPWSezTJs9ZfwKki0W3hgBo/w400-h174/20240220%20-%20%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E8%A9%95%E5%83%B9%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BF%A1%E8%A8%97%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91CEF-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 由於眾所週知的原因,REITs的頹勢是從2022年開始的,2022年至現在RQI的總回報是-22.76%,同期SPY指數上漲了7.89%。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiabX_TF0jOSjMhE7kwOBVqlcTdV6GkziJ0gCi-J5XZpsxRsxiJcR8pycqvxuBiqcISlF38ClgfsILkQcTlG06bAijvUtEmPQH9T8xAmZZWFv0lP-crRcXvwdY1OzG8cw6tbM_UuqhgvcqyHds9hDaB9lTd5AHXHLgPwcO6MpLsyW2YfhP9Pj-lw5KG3bt2/s836/20240220%20-%20%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E8%A9%95%E5%83%B9%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BF%A1%E8%A8%97%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91CEF-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="836" height="171" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiabX_TF0jOSjMhE7kwOBVqlcTdV6GkziJ0gCi-J5XZpsxRsxiJcR8pycqvxuBiqcISlF38ClgfsILkQcTlG06bAijvUtEmPQH9T8xAmZZWFv0lP-crRcXvwdY1OzG8cw6tbM_UuqhgvcqyHds9hDaB9lTd5AHXHLgPwcO6MpLsyW2YfhP9Pj-lw5KG3bt2/w400-h171/20240220%20-%20%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E8%A9%95%E5%83%B9%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BF%A1%E8%A8%97%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91CEF-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 基本上我們可以得出一個結論,房地產投資信託基金也是一個週期性板塊,很受加減息週期的影響。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 也是由於眾所週知的原因,現時的加息週期大概率已經完結,今年下半年或明年聯儲局大概率會開始減息,這對房地產投資信託基金的短期表現很重要。市場已經注意到這一點,整個領域的房地產投資信託基金已從10月的低點大幅反彈。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">現在的價格合理嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 短期而言,由於聯儲局並未真正降息,但REITs的價格已率先反彈,在數字上是超前反映。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我們還是以RQI為例,過去10年RQI股息率與10年期國債的息差,較低大約是2021年的3.75%,較高大約是2020年的6.81%,平均大約為5.23%。假設RQI每年0.96美元的配息不變,我們可以算一下RQI的公允值。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">截至執筆之日,10年期國債收益率為4.3%,以5.23%的10年期國債平均息差來計算,RQI的公允值應該在10.07美元左右(0.96 / 9.53%)。但現時RQI的股價為11.63美元,代表著13%的下跌空間。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">這代表RQI股價將會下跌13%嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">不是的,那只是在反映風險而已。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">因為市場永遠都在超前預期,只要預期減息的憧憬仍然存在,這息差溢價就會存在。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">RQI現時的股價,是在預期10年期國債收益率會降至3.02%附近,長期而言這是合理的,因為過去20年,10年期國債的平均收益率只在2.5%左右。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">那我們應該怎麼看待現在的價格。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">大部份人會認為,既然已偏離公允值,就不是買入的時機,當然要等到價格跌到公允值10元以下才好入手。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">理論上,這樣想是正確的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">現實上,這樣想是不實際的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">現實很可能是,在持續的減息預期下,我們等不到價格跌到10元以下的一天,等到減息真的發生,就更不會實現。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">除非,聯儲局不但沒有減息,還掉頭加息,那就是另一回事了,屬於黑天鵝事件。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我們應該這樣衡量,13%的下跌,是至現時為止最可能的風險和波幅,如果你能夠接受這樣的風險,收益率又符合期望(例如RQI現時提供的8.25%),就不必再等,甚至不必用甚麼分段入市的策略。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">因為,現金流投資講求的是現金流效率,一日不入市,你會損失一日的現金流,你等待的時候,其實是在付出很高的成本。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">這也是我一直強調的懶系投資精髓,我們以現金流效率作判斷的基準,價格的高低,那是用來衡量是否符合自己風險承受能力的依據。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">請注意,我沒有建議買或不買,每一個人的情況都不同,同一個動作,對每一個人都代表不同的意義。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">為何不直接投資REITs?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我個人是不大喜歡直接投資美國REIT股票。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">首先,美國REITs的股息率並不高,還要扣除30%的股息稅,現金流效率很低。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 其次,投資REITs的難度遠比投資直債複雜,從總體經濟走向、資產質素、資產報酬率、股利政策、市盈率、股價淨值比、負債水平、管理層架構以至營業利潤成長率等等,投資者都要了解和預測。也就是說, REITs的難度相等於股票,所以一般人更注重的是REITs的成長性,俗稱賺價差。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> REIT企業和一般上市企業最大的不同,是法律規定必須將收入的90%拿來派息,但其實REIT公司在需要時,是可以申請轉變成為一般的上市公司以擺脫這個規範,The GEO Group Inc (GEO)就是這樣做擺脫了REIT的身份。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對我來說,投資債券,直接投資往往比投資ETF/CEF優勝;投資股票,大部份時候ETF/CEF比直接投資優勝。REITs屬於後者,尤其當投資的目的是賺取現金流的時候。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> REITs ETF方面,規模最大的是Vanguard公司發行的Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ),追縱MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index指數。Vanguard公司發行的ETF有一共同特色,是基金內扣費很低,VNQ的基金內扣總開銷只有0.12%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你想投資全球性的REITs ETF,iShares Global REIT ETF (REET)是另一選擇,該ETF追蹤FTSE EPRA Nareit Global REITS Net Total Return Index指數,涵蓋已開發市場和新興市場上市的房地產投資信託基金,基金內扣總開銷只有0.14%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,VNQ和REET的股息率太低,分別只有4.16%和3.4%,扣除股息稅後幾乎所剩無幾。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">如果追求現金流效率,又可以承受相當風險,更好的選擇是房地產投資信託基金有關的CEF,例如之前提過的RQI。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">房地產投資信託基金CEF</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 根據</span><a href="https://cefdata.com/index/details/455/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">CEFDATA網站</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">的資訊,在美股上市、90 天平均交易流動性超過 50 萬美元的房地產投資信託基金相關CEF總共有9檔,股息率由8.18%至14.12%不等:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">abrdn Glbl Prmr Prop Fd (AWP)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">CBRE Clr Glbl Rel-Est Incm Fd (IGR)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Nuv Rel-Ast Incm & Gwth Fd (JRI)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Nuv Rel-Est Incm Fd (JRS)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">NB Rel-Est Sec Incm Fd</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="text-wrap: nowrap;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;"> (NRO)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">C&S Tot Rtn Rty Fd (RFI)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">C&S Rel-Est Opp & Incm Fd</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="text-wrap: nowrap;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">(RLTY)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">C&S REIT & Pref Incm Fd (RNP)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">C&S Qlty Incm Rty Fd (RQI)</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 另有一檔Principal Real Estate Income Fund (PGZ),投資以MBS為主,不在討論之列。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">AWP、IGR屬於全球型的房地產投資CEF,大約60%投資在美國本土,其次是10%的日本,其餘多投資在新加坡、澳洲、歐洲、香港、墨西哥等地。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">JRI與JRS是由著名基金公司Nuveen發行(也就是發行NZF、NEA、NMZ等市政債券CEF的那一家),投資組合同屬全球房地產投資的性質,美國本土資產只佔6成多。JRI和JRS兩者的分別是,後者的資產主要以REITs股票和優先股為主,前者則是股票和固定收益資產的混合體,同時持有股票、優先股、公司債、可轉換證券、MBS、貸款等不同類型資產。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> NRO、RFI、RLTY、RNP和RQI的投資組合,皆以美國和北美市場為主。其中RFI、RLTY、RNP和RQI是由同一家Cohen & Steers Inc基金公司發行,這家公司從1986年創立以來,就一直專注於房地產投資信託基金行業,旗下的基金也是同組別中表現相對出色的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> RLTY創立於去年2月24日,未滿一年,缺乏往績可循,沒有討論價值。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">接下來我們主要討論RFI、RNP和RQI這三檔,也是同組別中長期表現最好、近12個月Return of Capital (ROC)比例最低的三檔CEF。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">RQI、RFI與RNP</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 三檔CEF中,規模最大、流通量最佳、也最出名的是RQI,其主要投資於美國房地產行業的股票和優先股,並持續使用28%-30%的槓桿。RQI的投資組合中,排名前十的都是美國最著名或大型的REIT企業,前十位就佔了組合超過50%比例,其中包括擁有約 225,000個手機訊號塔和通訊站點的American Tower Corporation (AMT)、物流房地產領域的全球領導者Prologis Inc (PLD)、全球最大的零售房地產投資信託基金之一Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)等等。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 由於用上了槓桿,RQI也是三檔CEF中最受利率影響、波幅最高的標的。我的意思是,順風時RQI升得最多,逆風時也跌得也最多,即所謂升得高、跌得痛。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">2021年RQI的一年總回報超過60%,但到了2022年,RQI的一年總回報低於-30%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 可是,不論價格如何波動,RQI的派息一向穩定,每月配息0.08美元,現價與NAV有5.52%的折價,股息率為8.26%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 另一檔RFI,其投資組合和RQI極為相似,分別只在於槓桿。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你可以將RFI看成是不願使用槓桿的RQI,也因為這個理由,令RFI的波幅較低,雖然仍難以避免利率影響下的整體行業價格下跌。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我們具體以2022年的跌幅來舉例,RQI跌幅是三成,RFI跌幅是兩成多一點。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 雖然沒有用上槓桿增加回報,但RFI的長期整體表現與派息並不比RQI遜色多少,現時的股價比NAV有2.54%的溢價,股息率為8.21%,只比RQI略低,這可能與其派息中有少量的ROC (19.46%)有關。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最後一檔RNP,則是比較特別的存在,是房地產股票、REITs與優先股的混合體。RNP的投資組合中,只有不到一半是股票和REIT資產,其餘是美國和非美國公司發行的優先股。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> RNP這種配置,原意是以不同的資產類型配置來減低波幅,2020年之前,此策略是有效的。無奈在2021年之後,REITs與優先股同樣受利率影響極高,加上RNP也用上超過30%的槓桿,導致其近幾年波幅雖低於RQI,也與RFI相差無幾。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> RNP的中長期回報和RQI、RFI相近,現價只有極少的折價,股息率為8.18%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> RQI、RFI、RNP各有各的特色,沒有誰比誰更好,只視乎投資者的投資取向。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最後還有一點要提醒大家,就是股息稅的考慮。投資RQI、RFI和RNP,大部份證券商(包括IB)過往幾年都有退稅,退稅後的實際稅率大約在10%-21%之間,每年不一。如果我們以20%的實際股息稅計算,現時三檔的實際股息率大約是6.5%-6.6%。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">總結</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 個人認為,雖然降息週期利好房地產投資信託基金,但要恢復2009-2019那10年的榮景(那10年RQI、RFI這些標的可是一直在跑贏美股SPY),機率並不高。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為時代已經改變了,就算沒有中國的房地產爆雷風波,在經歷疫情的磨練以及AI等新科技的發展,全球房地產的</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">尋租</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">」模式已經漸漸褪色,尤其在住宅、零售商場和商業辦公室幾個方面。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不過,房地產始終是衣、食、住、行的必需品之一,永遠都會有需求,即使增長性不再像以前那樣強,也是具有穩定現金流的價值。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">而且房地產行業是多方面的,並不是只有住宅、商場和辦公室,還有工業物流、酒店、醫療健康、數據中心、基礎設施等等。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 作為現金流派別的資產配置,REITs可能是不可缺少的一塊。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註1:以上只是一部份的分析摘要,會員文章有附上更詳細全面的研究工作表,總結和分析所有9檔上市的REITs相關CEF以及VNQ的資訊,包括股價、折溢價、收益率、市值、流通量、槓桿率、ROC比例、基金費用、波幅、過往表現等等多方面的比較,這些資訊僅限會員參考)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註2:文章純屬個人分享,沒有任何投資建議成份。投資是個人行為,敬請自行研究並自負盈虧與責任。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有會員文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-1715064667730060112024-02-09T17:00:00.001+08:002024-02-09T17:00:00.144+08:00 你是左側交易者或是右側交易者?<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 除夕夜,台股已封盤,大家大吃大喝之餘不妨活動一下腦筋,這裡聊一點學術性的東西,反思一些投資策略,為龍年開紅盤做好準備。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-9b3e2916-7fff-9d4c-0361-233d11047afa"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 相信有一點投資經驗的人,大概都聽過兩個詞彙:「左側交易」和「右側交易」。然而許多投資者表面上看似瞭解,在實際的投資實踐中卻經常隨波逐流,混淆和混用「左側交易」和「右側交易」的邏輯或方法,導致投資效能的低下。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">何謂左側和右側交易?</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1wabtKzSo_3Hq5hJsjyuHbH5guCyQ2wS3yskCYpDIqZ5pg9L7JtyZi8fuRGiL16FrUXvGrfxxhu9j0fr8pTjLCwmA8ZFR12a0-CSPIDF6JqI5S2oZHUyt7viW71eCk-XkJ_AM4ODwFn8YiiEapOGdA853_rFdSjMRpLcfcepKPL22ihTq-JDWMAyA4ZeJ/s825/20231128%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E6%98%AF%E5%B7%A6%E5%81%B4%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E8%80%85%E9%82%84%E6%98%AF%E5%8F%B3%E5%81%B4%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E8%80%85%EF%BC%9F-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="825" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1wabtKzSo_3Hq5hJsjyuHbH5guCyQ2wS3yskCYpDIqZ5pg9L7JtyZi8fuRGiL16FrUXvGrfxxhu9j0fr8pTjLCwmA8ZFR12a0-CSPIDF6JqI5S2oZHUyt7viW71eCk-XkJ_AM4ODwFn8YiiEapOGdA853_rFdSjMRpLcfcepKPL22ihTq-JDWMAyA4ZeJ/w400-h213/20231128%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E6%98%AF%E5%B7%A6%E5%81%B4%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E8%80%85%E9%82%84%E6%98%AF%E5%8F%B3%E5%81%B4%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E8%80%85%EF%BC%9F-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 所謂左側交易,模式是:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">資產價格在下跌後反彈的過程中,以「底部」為界,底部左邊的的交易行為,屬於左側交易。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">資產價格在上漲後回跌的過程中,以「頂部」為界,頂部左邊的的交易行為,屬於左側交易。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-left: 24pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">所謂右側交易,模式是:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">資產價格在下跌後反彈的過程中,以「底部」為界,底部右邊的的交易行為,屬於右側交易。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">資產價格在上漲後回跌的過程中,以「頂部」為界,頂部右邊的的交易行為,屬於右側交易。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 或者簡單來說,假如我們想買入一檔標的,習慣在見底前愈跌愈買的人,屬於左側交易者;習慣見底後才買的人,屬於右側投資者。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 同樣,假如我們想沽出一檔標的,習慣在見頂前愈升愈沽的人,屬於左側交易者;習慣見頂後才沽的人,屬於右側投資者。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">左側和右側投資的特性</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 左側交易者在資產價格下跌時,即使不知道底部什麼時候出現,如果覺得價格已到了合理的範圍,就會開始分批買進,價格下跌得愈多買得愈多,屬於逆勢操作。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 大部份價值投資者或長期投資者都是左側投資者,代表人物有巴菲特,他的名言是「別人恐懼時我貪婪,別人貪婪時我恐懼」、「跌愈多,我買愈多」。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 左側交易的優點是獲利空間較大,勝率較右側投資高。缺點是個人主觀成份大,時間成本多,承擔的波動風險比右側投資高,很需要具備相當高的資金與很強的心理素質。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 相對於左側交易者的逆勢而為,右側交易者是在資產價格下跌的底部出現、呈現上漲趨勢後才開始買入,當資產價格上漲頂部出現、呈現下跌趨勢後開始賣出。他們不預測未來,就是跟著市場的趨勢走,屬於順勢操作。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 大多數技術型投資者都是右側投資者,代表人物有創立江恩理論(一種用來預測市場走勢的技術分析方法)的威廉.江恩,與及著名對沖基金經理喬治.索羅斯。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 右側投資的優點是,由於選擇在有突破訊號時才開始布局,可把握大趨勢並避開大崩盤,波動風險較低,而且時間成本較少,資金週轉率較高,適合短線交易和波段操作。缺點是市場趨勢經常有轉折,會導致獲利空間相對低,很容易高買低沽,「左一巴右一巴」,所以一般勝率較低,甚至低至2至3成的取勝率也是很常見的。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAgpHaHdra9hNIJgNMPD24dVgHJIf1b7-9Nk6TNsp9zUy_a4diN0jzerJQaB52jAZ0WR4ZzLjQIUnRHh7bxrUkNMxIfOzOy2zYPb5KC85LoJ2u1LwxdHWb9Mr3CxUgDC-qt01zBEqc2oU8iDLsUYA9L5DIEuOZOc-Gl6VMKoIxE06FbAwuJczZAOuEF4Kv/s977/20231128%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E6%98%AF%E5%B7%A6%E5%81%B4%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E8%80%85%E9%82%84%E6%98%AF%E5%8F%B3%E5%81%B4%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E8%80%85%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="977" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAgpHaHdra9hNIJgNMPD24dVgHJIf1b7-9Nk6TNsp9zUy_a4diN0jzerJQaB52jAZ0WR4ZzLjQIUnRHh7bxrUkNMxIfOzOy2zYPb5KC85LoJ2u1LwxdHWb9Mr3CxUgDC-qt01zBEqc2oU8iDLsUYA9L5DIEuOZOc-Gl6VMKoIxE06FbAwuJczZAOuEF4Kv/w400-h325/20231128%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E6%98%AF%E5%B7%A6%E5%81%B4%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E8%80%85%E9%82%84%E6%98%AF%E5%8F%B3%E5%81%B4%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E8%80%85%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">左右側交易的錯配</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以上的論述,屬於教課書的知識,按照這種定義,我們可以想像無論是現金流派或價值投資派,都應該屬於左側投資者。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 尤其是現金流派,包括懶系投資法,看的是資產的現金流效率,當收益率符合期望就可以分段買入,理論上並沒有價值投資派最怕的向下愈買愈低、再也起不來那種事,除非遇上違約。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 可是我看到的是,很多自稱價值投資或現金流投資的人,真正在做的行為,比較接近右側投資者。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 他們往往在資產價格下跌時不敢出手,總說要等到跌夠了、見到底部才出手,換句話說,他們實際上不以資產的價值或現金流效率為投資依據。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 更糟糕的是,當價格見底回升初期,他們也是不敢出手的,因為怕一買就跌回去。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 他們甚麼時候會出手?就是當全世界一面倒看好,自己感到極度FOMO(Fear of missing out)的時候,而那時往往就是資產價格已升到不合理地步、即將出現轉折的時候。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 韭菜,就是這樣誕生的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事實上,左側和右側交易沒有對錯好壞之分,只有是否適合自己的分別。不同的市場和環境,也適用不同的策略,例如右側交易的動能策略在波動不大的市場表現較差,反之在動能很明確的市場會表現較好。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 再說一次,交易策略沒有好壞之分,只視乎有否符合自己的性格。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 左側交易,是傾向保守的交易策略,較適合腳踏實地、注重風險控制、追求長期穩定和保守回報的人。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 右側交易,是傾向進取的交易策略,較適合自信、喜歡刺激、追求高回報、有信心可以抓住市場波動的人。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但現實中我們會發現很多錯配,有時愈保守的人,愈是三心兩意,做法反而愈接近右側投資者。他們總是想摸頂抄底,同時又缺乏停損和紀律這兩種右側投資者最需要的品質,結果自然一敗塗地。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 其中一個原因是,左側交易實際上是違反人性的,需要相當強的心理素質。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資初心者,最容易作出失敗性的右側投資行為,不是因為他們保守或進取,而是因為他們不了解投資是一個對抗人性的過程。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">辨清自己是何種交易者</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 大部份人的實質交易,是左側交易和右側交易混雜,有時是愈跌愈買,有時是看到了低點才買,有時是聽消息入市,更多時候根本就是依直覺入場。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事實上,投資本就是一門藝術,沒有公式可言,我們大可不必硬性規範自己一定要用左側交易或是右側交易。最常見的是基本因素混雜技術指標,以基本因素作出買入的決定,以技術指標決定入市的時機,這並沒有錯。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 假設現在的價格已過了最低點,難道價值投資者或現金流投資者就不可以出手嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那麼為甚麼我們還要清晰區別左側交易和右側交易?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 理由是,成功的投資需要擁有一個基本條件——知行合一。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 區別左側交易和右側交易,可以幫助我們達到知行合一。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在投資實務中,最常見的是投資者根本未能理解其採用的交易策略本質,造成策略間的混淆與衝突。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一些自稱價值投資者的人,明明應該逢低買進,他們卻設定了止蝕點(停損點),這就不是左側交易,因為只有右側交易才會設立止蝕點。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 同樣,一些人明明是想順勢交易,卻在趨勢反轉之前就過早止賺,這就不是右側交易,因為只有左側交易才會設立止賺點(當價格高於價值時)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這種衝突,源自於投資者對於左側交易與右側交易的基本區別未能明確理解——左側交易強調價值投資,注重逢低買進,而右側交易則以順勢交易為主,強調趨勢發展中的持續性。止蝕、紀律等詞彙通常是右側交易者的用語,而逢低買進、愈跌愈買通常是左側交易者的用語。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果投資者不能理解自己的投資策略本質,會導致策略和方法相互矛盾,知行不能合一,他們將同時得到左側和右側交易的缺點,又同時失去左側和右側交易的優點。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 想一想,你在投資時,有沒有使用了與自己交易策略相互衝突的方法? </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">你的交易策略符合你的性格嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一般的說法是這樣的:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 左側交易呈現較高的勝率與較高的利潤空間,然而,也伴隨著相對較高的波動風險,因此長期投資者往往偏好左側的策略。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 相對的,右側交易具有較低的勝率與平均較低的利潤空間(雖然某些涉及大波段的時候也會大賺,但多次小獲利和止蝕的機會更高),不過承受的波動風險相對較低,短線波段交易的投資者通常更傾向於右側。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 所以,長期投資,有承受風險能力的人可以使用左側交易;短線投資,缺乏風險承擔能力可以使用右側交易。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 盡信書不如無書,我不認為以上說法完全正確。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 例如,現金流投資者一樣可以使用右側投資,只要滿足到你的收益率要求。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 或者,你可能會從左側轉到右側,因為想降低波動風險;或從右側轉到左側,因為不想那麼累,不想或無法做到隨時看盤、隨時追價。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們始終是人,不是AI,投資沒有要求你一成不變,或從一而終。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 關鍵點是,你的做法需要與你的策略、性格契合,還要對抗你的個人情緒。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 左側交易著眼於風險控制和保守的資金管理,不急於追逐市場的熱點,而是更注重穩定的長期收益,這與謹慎者的心性相得益彰。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但左側交易同時要求投資者擁有出色的情緒管理能力,不容許情感左右理性的判斷,懂得在市場的噪音中保持冷靜。同時也需要投資者具備有足夠的耐心和毅力,不會時時著眼於即時回報。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在適當時候,即使是現金流或價值投資者,也不代表要捨棄右側交易。有時,市場波動的同時也代表了高報酬的投資機會,適當的右側交易,可以根據市場的變化及時調整風險,快速調整投資組合,尤其適合喜歡在市場中保持靈活性的投資者。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 左右側交易的取捨,並無標準答案,但無論你實行何種策略,每次交易前必須認清,這次交易是建基於自己的分析、還是建基於情緒和感覺?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 問問自己:這次交易屬於左側還是右側?符合你的策略嗎?符合你的性格嗎?符合你的承受風險能力嗎? </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註:以上所述純屬個人分享,沒有任何投資建議成份。投資是個人行為,敬請自行研究並自負盈虧與責任。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><h1 style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">祝大家<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 春節快樂,身體健康,事事如意,投資得心應手!</span></span></h1><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-34072758793574727022024-01-22T20:00:00.002+08:002024-01-22T20:00:00.249+08:00 你可能不知道的固定收益資產 – 美國應稅市政債券<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 市政債券與市政債券CEF,應該算是近兩年最受唾棄與忽視的資產類別了,這很容易理解,在不斷升息的年代,被稱為「次國債」的市政債券由於年期長、息率低,價格不斷下跌。市政債券CEF就更差,由於使用了高槓桿,升息令借貸息率升高,成本增加使大部份CEF被逼減少派息,形成價格下跌但股息率不升的困境,惡性循環下,價格下跌更重。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-7c307122-7fff-3be6-5cda-62fe3d9552cd"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">不過,現在我們大概率已來到加息末期,或許可以開始重新檢閱這種資產類別。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">市政債券在升息期的表現</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">大家見到市政債券CEF下跌幅度這兩年動輒三至四成,那是由於這些CEF的槓桿都很高,擴大了波幅,事實上在這個升息週期下,相對於國債,市政債券波幅還是相對低的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">以下是2022年升息開始至2023年10月,市政債ETF(iShares National Muni Bond ETF, MUB)與長年期國債ETF(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT)的走勢圖,前者總回報-8.71%,後者總回報-36.48%:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvByxuAnnlBi0wi7xNp87DVN20DcGAEf3GYi59zOuCtqtxn1clfLpcscHjt5tWa-FVGtoqCgTKmnXDri-VZg4FXfdIGHDpB4e7WC6rprTL-YKPbZWcqDAuaZ8Wo2fhYrVFzIGvB_2JuHCptBNgn95CBjBqylwkBRJNrXuFLphnEWwuTWRUaKtiVvIRQ9Mw/s832/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="693" data-original-width="832" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvByxuAnnlBi0wi7xNp87DVN20DcGAEf3GYi59zOuCtqtxn1clfLpcscHjt5tWa-FVGtoqCgTKmnXDri-VZg4FXfdIGHDpB4e7WC6rprTL-YKPbZWcqDAuaZ8Wo2fhYrVFzIGvB_2JuHCptBNgn95CBjBqylwkBRJNrXuFLphnEWwuTWRUaKtiVvIRQ9Mw/w400-h334/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果我們將MUB與較短年期的國債ETF比較,例如IEF與TLH,結果也是相若,大家可以試試自行評估。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">應稅市政債券</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 市政債券市場中,有一小部分類別通常被投資者忽略,那就是應稅市政債券。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 市政債券的大部份投資者是機構投資者或美國居民,對美國稅務居民來說,大多數市政機構支付的利息,都是免徵聯邦和州所得稅的,然而,這不是全部。某些市政債券的利息,仍需繳納聯邦和州所得稅,這些債券被統稱為</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">應稅市政債券</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(Taxable Municipal Bonds)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 免稅市政債券(Tax-exempt Municipal Bonds)和應稅市政債券(Taxable Municipal Bonds)通常由同一發行人發行,因此信用品質沒有差異,例如加州、新澤西州收費公路管理局和密西根大學等發行人,都有同時發行免稅和應稅市政債券。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,由於應稅和免稅市政債券的稅收待遇不同,為了提高對美國人的吸引力,應稅市政債券往往提供了更高的收益率。下圖是應稅市政債券、公司債券與免稅市政債券三類資產的收益率比較:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHrYppgjOPsYK2Wfl4z4j3KeprpDnEpr8cIz0STTZcgxRx-mxezKKWGUPwdpKUi_zUwTjYveL_FnAL9lM60khIvcqERki7c_b9QkPJlSH2l8cAPAd8PhLh53QdkZHfHN9dUfEQGWiUwJyEgHxkevML7KF1RfC4U3h9c7-GSmsnq8I1PVcwdL9UE0U9VOnD/s1170/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="457" data-original-width="1170" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHrYppgjOPsYK2Wfl4z4j3KeprpDnEpr8cIz0STTZcgxRx-mxezKKWGUPwdpKUi_zUwTjYveL_FnAL9lM60khIvcqERki7c_b9QkPJlSH2l8cAPAd8PhLh53QdkZHfHN9dUfEQGWiUwJyEgHxkevML7KF1RfC4U3h9c7-GSmsnq8I1PVcwdL9UE0U9VOnD/w400-h156/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 從上圖我們可以看到,在相同年期和評等的狀況下,應稅市政債券的收益率明顯比免稅市政債券高得多,接近美國投資級別公司債券。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 相對於美國投資級別公司債券,市政債券通常具有更高的信用評級,超過79%的應稅市政債券,評級為AA-級以上。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL-LubMRuOq1vuJ5pM-kM_Z0FeabK5XHztSE9yP8eVN9z-sEUhOeeeEZOpv72psqTXR2Odw54IYbkIoZhgHzSbhFFt2IFKEjkOAodOED_kfwGiKmBgUwvhmjed4vbuTvJXihC95vhNN-xkqDgWQSgWBzh3bnIxbu0etHAmtVNesT301w1F7N4lP5p0vcmz/s897/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="897" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL-LubMRuOq1vuJ5pM-kM_Z0FeabK5XHztSE9yP8eVN9z-sEUhOeeeEZOpv72psqTXR2Odw54IYbkIoZhgHzSbhFFt2IFKEjkOAodOED_kfwGiKmBgUwvhmjed4vbuTvJXihC95vhNN-xkqDgWQSgWBzh3bnIxbu0etHAmtVNesT301w1F7N4lP5p0vcmz/w400-h259/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">在違約率方面,從1970年至2021年,投資等級的市政債券10年內累計違約率只有0.09%,投資等級公司債券的累計違約率則是2.17%,這很容易理解,因為市政債券的發行者,相當於壟斷的公共企業。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg8qbOLPemgvO_q1fxr0q-eUjIv7ycvKn7MltcNm-P6nkVqmKDvG1Jy2ik_Ru3N84EPI9W0qTYlKOVKXLbyqUMsqYeHb78AQeoRIEB8uIn1HAoA_y4WuWJvVIN7smbgisnGy2XDEucvU_xzWnPtXiHVB53sn-_J3ysUFlJIsFYfRhlxjqHkSg_YqUwzspN/s1092/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="392" data-original-width="1092" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg8qbOLPemgvO_q1fxr0q-eUjIv7ycvKn7MltcNm-P6nkVqmKDvG1Jy2ik_Ru3N84EPI9W0qTYlKOVKXLbyqUMsqYeHb78AQeoRIEB8uIn1HAoA_y4WuWJvVIN7smbgisnGy2XDEucvU_xzWnPtXiHVB53sn-_J3ysUFlJIsFYfRhlxjqHkSg_YqUwzspN/w400-h144/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 也就是說,應稅市政債券由於某些稅務理由,提供了比免稅市政債券更高的收益率,接近違約率較高的公司債券。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,這種稅務差別只是對美國稅務居民而言的,對我們這些非美國稅務居民來說,無論是應稅市政債券或是免稅市政債券,在稅務上兩者並無分別,兩者都是免股息稅的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 大家大概懂我的意思吧。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 應稅市政債券和免稅市政債券之間的息差,也不是一直都處於高水平。從2010 年1月以來,應稅市政債券的平均收益率比免稅市政債券只高出0.9%,在2020年 3月的一段短暫時間內,由於武漢病毒疫情危機的爆發,市場波動出現錯價,應稅市政債券的收益率一度甚至低於免稅市政債券。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是現在,兩者平均息差大約是2%,已接近2010年1月以來的最高點。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtRZKJc7V4vlNpF7LC-gOuZnBnon3NE09QRh_T4d00_4HCiCzABRsgwJUPfqxTJRLycyB43b8Wp-msBrtIMq8G2uzvKcII5YIeDvT2sDBSR7I7kzPEbGEV4rA28DeQX0aboBlb4jzoWSmsdt4tjgF1ydmEpVH-kpHzGnTODkGZkqawobFbafDl4f6vRIe6/s980/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-5.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="570" data-original-width="980" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtRZKJc7V4vlNpF7LC-gOuZnBnon3NE09QRh_T4d00_4HCiCzABRsgwJUPfqxTJRLycyB43b8Wp-msBrtIMq8G2uzvKcII5YIeDvT2sDBSR7I7kzPEbGEV4rA28DeQX0aboBlb4jzoWSmsdt4tjgF1ydmEpVH-kpHzGnTODkGZkqawobFbafDl4f6vRIe6/w400-h233/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-5.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有愈來愈多人發現了這件事,所以非美國投資者,已成為應稅市政債券市場中需求增長速度最快的組別。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">應稅市政債券ETF</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 大家都知道,市政債券是由美國各州發行,數目雖多但流通性較差,交易量相當低。應稅市政債券的市場則更甚,體量只有免稅市政債券市場的大約26%,我們多數只能以ETF或CEF的形式持有。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQbkZ7y9ze9i8sEgHZMMoTP_h3a_mvXK867r92td2_vX1fRX1he8O8oSqCEiL6ttDnxdbhMRficRg0iEth6kT8rnFcxUzvBXs0qPSxvKooUMh0j3DifSL2TS9HAIyRoiIupmxA-IWCUWhupi-XY3M6NxFGDbq5USTZBvyOhnbGejWIhgZ00mCA6Ezu9nW6/s902/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-6.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="902" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQbkZ7y9ze9i8sEgHZMMoTP_h3a_mvXK867r92td2_vX1fRX1he8O8oSqCEiL6ttDnxdbhMRficRg0iEth6kT8rnFcxUzvBXs0qPSxvKooUMh0j3DifSL2TS9HAIyRoiIupmxA-IWCUWhupi-XY3M6NxFGDbq5USTZBvyOhnbGejWIhgZ00mCA6Ezu9nW6/w400-h236/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-6.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在ETF方面,美股市場有多達25檔免稅市政債券ETF(參見</span><a href="https://etfdb.com/etfs/bond/municipal-bond/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://etfdb.com/etfs/bond/municipal-bond/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">),其中市值最高的是iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 至於應稅市政債券ETF,只有一檔,就是Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF (BAB)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> MUB市值超過34B美元,BAB市值不到1.5B美元,雖然也不算低,流通性還好,體量仍是難望MUB項背。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在收益率方面,兩檔皆是每月派息,MUB過去12個月的股息率約為2.63%,BAB過去12個月的股息率為3.78%。不過,BAB很明顯有增加派息的趨勢,股價不變的話,未來收益率大概率在4%以上。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> BAB成立於2009年11月,從成立至今的表現來看,BAB是明顯跑贏MUB,可是在近一年半的升息期間,BAB的跌幅也是明顯高於MUB。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">其中一個原因,是應稅市政債券指數比免稅市政債券指數具有更長的到期年期(12.88年vs 7.75年),使應稅市政債券對利率變化更加敏感,也就是承擔了更高的利率風險。當然,這種特性同時也可以令其在降息期間獲益更高。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPTItqD_XEjvw2YUhiWbvl1kJfnoNbDAWnOhbUvDFL1_5k31XaBPOaiNsuk452DYyhUmEeA0FgVQCmt-WUHNoL4jy9PT-Ul7xy9ZYKP5wsWtsHPa3lLokPnkXeUSedoKlpJlE-YlUIKJVs1QWUynJtAh0nOje_zuNmIqNHzL1O7MkTVG-tDIlDb7DFfNEd/s896/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-7.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="896" height="339" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPTItqD_XEjvw2YUhiWbvl1kJfnoNbDAWnOhbUvDFL1_5k31XaBPOaiNsuk452DYyhUmEeA0FgVQCmt-WUHNoL4jy9PT-Ul7xy9ZYKP5wsWtsHPa3lLokPnkXeUSedoKlpJlE-YlUIKJVs1QWUynJtAh0nOje_zuNmIqNHzL1O7MkTVG-tDIlDb7DFfNEd/w400-h339/20231016%20-%20%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%87%89%E7%A8%85%E5%B8%82%E6%94%BF%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-7.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">應稅市政債券CEF</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在CEF方面,相對免稅市政債券的選擇多不勝數,應稅市政債券的選擇很少,大概就只有以下三檔:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">BlackRock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust (BBN):成立於2010年8月,市值約942M美元,是最大的應稅市政債券CEF。現價有約8.35%折價,現行收益率約7.31%。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Bond & Investment Grade Debt Trust (GBAB): 成立於2010年11月,市值約359M美元。嚴格意義來講,這並不是一檔市政債券基金而是混合基金,投資組合只有57.1%放在應稅市政債券上,其餘是其他的固定收益資產,也令其股息率較高。現價有約3.83%溢價,現行收益率約9.76%。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income Fund (NBB):成立於2010年4月,市值約422M美元,由最大市政債券CEF發行商Nuveen發行。現價有約10.65%折價,現行收益率約5.69%。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">三檔應稅市政債券CEF的發行時間接近,以發行日至今的表現來看,BBN的表現最佳,其次是GBAB,兩者的長期表現皆明顯勝於指數ETF(也就是BAB)。NBB的長期表現則較遜,與指數ETF相若。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">但是不出意外的,由於三者皆用上了槓桿,在2022年至今的升息期間,三者跌幅全部高於指數ETF。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">投資組合方面,BBN和NBB有超過9成的資產投放於應稅市政債券基金,投資級別資產的比例在90%附近;GBAB則屬混合基金,應稅市政債券基金的比例約6成,其餘是公司債券、CEF、Senior Loan、ABS、優先股等等,總體投資級別資產的比例約76%。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">總結</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 相對於一般的免稅市政債券,應稅市政債券由於稅務考量,提供了更高的收益率。但對於外國投資者來說,兩者質素相等且稅務沒有分別,更高的收益率就代表更高的CP值,兩者的息差,更已接近2010年1月以來的最高位。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 市政債券的缺陷,是市場比其他固定收益市場小得多,流通性低,投資者多數需要利用ETF或CEF來投資,但ETF與CEF的選擇其實也不多。此外,有約三分之一的應稅市政債券屬於小額發行,可能無法納入ETF或CEF,令基金的分散性有所限制。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 應稅市政債券的平均年期通常比免稅市政債券更長,使其對利率變化更為敏感,投資者可能承擔較高的利率風險,這也是應稅市政債券指數ETF在近年升息週期的表現不如免稅市政債券指數ETF的主要原因。但相對的,如果是在降息週期以至低息期,應稅市政債券的表現卻會較佳。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 現在我們大概率處於升息期的末端,如果你覺得現時息率理想且有欲望鎖定息率,應稅市政債券是不錯的資產,可以考慮開始佈局。但是,正如我之前文章所述,長期息率受太多因素影響,短期不可預測,如果利率上升超出我們的預期,應稅市政債券的總回報可能更差。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因此,如果真要投入資金的話,我建議還是要從收息效率與資產配置的角度去考慮,並使用分段吸納的方式去投資。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註:以上所有資料來自CEFDATA與Morningstar網站,只截至2023年10月,不保證準確和更新。提及的公司及標的沒有任何投資建議成份。投資是個人行為,敬請自行研究並自負盈虧與責任。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-57332256172518705332024-01-07T20:00:00.001+08:002024-01-07T20:00:00.249+08:00 中國風險<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 2020年,我將香港股票和基金幾乎全數沽清,把這些資金轉移到台股,同時在Patreon寫下了不少看好台股前景的文章(第一篇是2020年9月的《</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/42177696" style="text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">不負責任之預測(台股篇)</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》),然後從2021年開始分享自己的台股組合(第一篇是2021年2月的《</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/47189359" style="text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我的台股組合(一)</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》)。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-976a6986-7fff-200b-0b54-4249469a1a58"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 三年來,我每月都在Patreon分享自己的台股組合變化,整體回報幸不辱命,2023年的一年回報也超過了30%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對於台股的樂觀及對港股的悲觀,我是基於分析,並不是政治立場決定的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span> 但是,一聊到中國經濟,總有人認為我是在黑中國,可能因為我總是從政策風險的角度來分析中國經濟。<p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">但沒辦法呀,投資中國的最大風險,就是政策風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最近的例子,中國國家新聞出版署網站發布「網路遊戲管理辦法(草案徵求意見稿)」,擬規定網路遊戲不得設定每日登入、首次儲值、連續儲值等誘導性獎勵,所有網路遊戲須設定用戶儲值限額,消息一出立刻重挫遊戲股股價,網易與騰訊為首的遊戲股股價暴跌,分別重挫逾25%和12%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 當然,總有人認為中國政府做甚麼都是對的,都是為了人民好。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">好吧,今天我們不聊政策風險,我們就假設中國股市沒有任何政策風險,或你有信心避開中國的全部政策風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">在此前提下,我們聊聊中國現在的投資價值。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">中國的大環境</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 客觀來說,現在的中港股市還是有優勢的,優勢有兩點:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">價位低,先不理會「低處可以更低」的說法,兩地股市在經過這麼多年的反覆下跌,價位,是真的低;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">如果美國今年開始減息,對中國經濟有舒緩作用。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 其他?沒有了,最多也就是這樣了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這兩點優勢,是否代表我們可以開始投資中國?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那我們需要從中國的大環境開始講起。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 中國現時的大環境,如果要用一個字來形容,就是「卷」!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那種卷,是生活在香港和台灣的人難以想像的,是從高層至基層,從有錢至沒錢,從讀書至工作,大家都在拼了命的卷。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 卷,就是從上至下都在白熱化的競爭,非理性的競爭,大家拼命在爭奪有限的資源。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有點錢的人,拼了命要將資金調離國內,唯恐排隊等著被共同富裕;中產的人,拼了命的加班加點,每天996工作,怕被裁員失去收入;讀書的人,一天16小時拼了命操練試卷,幾千萬名學生爭奪數千個985、211大學學位;畢業的年輕人,每年1.2千萬人拼命爭奪幾千個大企業職位,青年失業率接近50%;基層的人,拼命爭入快遞和外賣行業,那兩行業人數增長了30倍,送一單快遞的單價已低至5-7毛錢收入……</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 套用業內人仕的一句話:「反正你不幹有的是人幹,中國就是不缺便宜的人,更不缺便宜的公司,似乎永遠會有更便宜的報價。」</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們外人可能覺得,這麼卷這麼苦的日子,中國廣大老百姓如何過得下去?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不!如果你親身接觸過中國人,他們有自己的感受。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 苦不苦,關鍵是有沒有結婚生子。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不計農村人口,如果我們只看中國一二線城市的居民,只要沒結婚,在萬物通縮內卷的中國,一天收入100元人民幣以上,或月入三千,可以根本花不完。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為中國的房地產價格已經降下來了,現在中國要租個不講究條件的房間,實際價格其實並不高。一般北京馬駒橋十平米的房子,一個月需要1000左右,如果只要一個床鋪,那300就夠了;吃飯的話,只要不理會成份或製造或攝入地溝油甚麼的,沙縣小吃、蘭州牛肉麵、各式預製菜,要多少有多少,要多便宜有多便宜;娛樂的話,大眾標配的刷視頻、看直播、追劇集、誑網購,幾乎就不需要成本。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 縱使一天工作12小時,沒有夢想,小日子也可以過得很爽,但前提是——沒結婚。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一旦結婚生子組成家庭,那麼房貸、育子、養家的各種巨額花費立即就接踵而來,壓力山大了!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 所以,現在的中國年輕人,是幾乎完全放棄了結婚生孩子的欲望。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這種極端內卷環境,註定了民眾只能顧守好自己眼前的一畝三分地,只能理會短期利益。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這種極端內卷環境,中國股市自然不能倖免於難,成為資方搶奪錢財的梁山、收割韭菜的屠場。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 很多長期投資中國股市的投資者,是對中國的資本市場有基本的誤解,致使他們連年受挫。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">中國股市的本質</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 中國股市的本質,是「融資」,不是「投資」。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 中國的資本市場,只有不到40年的歷史,本身就是不成熟的,再加上中國人一些天性,造就了中國股市與西方股市有本質上的的差異。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我直接說吧,中國的股市,只是一些有資源的企業,在銀行貸款這個主要融資管道之外開闢的另一個低成本融資的金融市場。中國股市配套的法律既不健全,參與者又大部分都是不專業的散戶,融資是客氣的說法,真正意思是,中國的金融市場只是某些人的提款機。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這些人做生意,是早在一級市場、甚至一級市場之前的桌面下,都談好了,在二級市場,他們只是去提款。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 巴菲特如果處於這種金融市場,也是成不了股神的,也是要輸錢的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 中國的股市,有的只是內幕交易、壟斷、顛覆和各種忽悠小股東的手段,西方資本市場的投資理論,甚麼道氏理論、江恩理論、艾略特波浪理論或圖表技術指標分析等等,在這裡非但一點用處也沒有,還是一個個大坑、一劑劑喂給投資者的毒藥。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 中國金融市場,規則上不對稱,資訊上不對稱,道德風險上不對稱,風險收益上不對稱,上市公司和投資者的利益也不對稱。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在西方國家的證券市場,誰能上市,誰能融資,主要看公司的估值以及潛力,再由機構投資者以專業能力來決定要不要投資給它們。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在中國的證券市場,誰是好企業,誰能上市,誰能融資,沒有透明度,靠的是一些中間人的人為判斷。太多中國企業上市,瞄準的是投資者的資金,他們千方百計壓低投資者的投資收益率,才不管公司上市後經營得好不好。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這也與一般中國企業的治理文化有點關係。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">中國企業的本質</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一般西方的上市公司,架構是股權分離,董事會為股東負責,CEO為營運負責,投資和營運是分開的。西方董事會成員多是一班獨立董事,他們只看賺錢,只要CEO為公司賺到錢,就放手讓CEO去幹,CEO想幹甚麼就幹甚麼;但如果CEO不能為公司賺錢,董事會就會將CEO撤換,換一個上來試試。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 西方董事會做的就只有這件事,他們不會干涉公司實際營運,更不會和CEO爭權。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 股、權分離,能者居之。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 中國公司完全不同,中國企業的股權基本上都是圍繞一個人。那個人或像王健林那樣,個人股份就可以控股;或像馬雲那樣,雖然表面是小股東,但是擁有的投票權與股權之間不是等比例關係。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 中國公司的董事會,事實上是由一個人掌控的,公司CEO,或就是那個人,或相等於那個人的秘書。無論是否上市,中國企業大多是一個人的公司,一個人的董事會,一個人的CEO。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這種本質的企業,會顧慮一個人的利益,還是會顧慮小股東的利益?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在中國較開放、前景較明朗的年代,也許那個人還會思考一下長期收益,自己的利益和小股東的利益,在某些時候還可能同向。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但在極端的內卷環境,他大概率想的是,你死我活,兩個只能活一個。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有些人會說,沒關係,我就是相信那個人!因為我覺得那個人很厲害、很偉大、很有長遠願景、很會為小股東著想,例如李嘉誠、馬雲……</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 可惜,真的有能力又為小股東著想的牛人,在中國的下場往往是不被容許存在,他們做著做著,企業就被偉大的黨接收了……那又是另一個故事,今天我們不去聊。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">2024年中國經濟對全球的影響</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 為應付水深火熱的國內經濟,2024年中國政府大概率仍會不斷推出政策救市,包括發行國債、動用壽險基金投入護盤、將不看好股市視同危害國安等等,在一連串措施下,中國股市可能會有所反彈,可能會出現一些投機機會。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 留意,我這裡說的,是投機機會,不是投資機會。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為中國股市的本質並沒有改變,就算最好的中國企業,生長在這片土壤,也不大存在甚麼投資價值。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果只是這樣,還不算甚麼,最多大家就是避免投資中國,最糟糕的還在後面。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 好幾個月前,我在《</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/89599918" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">華為手機的啟示-更大的災難?</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》一文中已預視過,中國的內卷勢將衝擊全球。很不幸的,這件事已經成為現實,短短半年內,中國企業挾著內卷形成的低廉價格,已佔據了絕對的競爭優勢。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在零售層面,中國的Temu、Shein、電動車等等對全球帶來的衝擊已是有目共睹,而一般人看不到的,是石化、鋼鐵、造紙、太陽能、面板、塑化、機械、紡織、光學等等產業,全部正被中國以低價洗成紅海市場。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 中國將內卷導致的產能過剩產品傾銷到全世界,加上大力補貼,這些低價產品,正摧毀全球既有企業的獲利。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這等於是將中國的內卷擴大至全球,低價幾乎是難以抗拒的,有點像香港人現在的大規模北上消費。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這才是全球正面臨的中國風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 就算不投資中國,我們還是需要留意,有甚麼行業現正被中國內卷的傾銷衝擊。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">香港的前景</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最後,還是要稍為聊一下香港。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 從種種跡象看來,中國政府確實已經放棄了香港的經濟發展,他們一心關注的只有香港的國安問題。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 香港的主政官員,全是揣摩上意之徒,他們向上逢迎唯恐不及,也根本不會去關心香港的經濟復甦。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 香港現仍能維持低失業率,純粹是大批的移民潮未及補充所致,實際的情況,是房價持續下跌,市面一片蕭條。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 缺乏中央的照顧,沒有官員的配合,這本來也不是大問題,只要香港民間還有活力,就有機會重新振作,另尋出路。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 香港人大規模出外消費,幾</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">十</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;">年前就有了,北上追求享受或CP值,十幾年前就有了,這根本不是問題。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 問題是,留在此地的舊香港人,普遍失去了對這片土地的信心,而大量湧入的新香港人,對這片土地沒有歸屬感,只視之為跳板。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 信心崩潰,才是問題!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以前,香港人到內地消費是很有自信的,並不覺得香港比內地差,到外地旅遊購物,對港人來說,只是另類消費的選擇。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 現在,很多香港人是在討厭自己的地方,是一到假期,就想方設法逃離這座城市,想方設法喘一口氣!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 信心,是一切建設的基礎,沒有信心,如何有前景?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(節錄自</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">去年</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon文章)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註:以上純屬個人意見分享,沒有任何投資建議成份。投資是個人行為,敬請自行研究並自負盈虧與責任。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">柳爺,R.I.P.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-28074245365468192462023-12-22T20:00:00.003+08:002023-12-22T20:00:00.137+08:00FED急轉彎,我們回到低息年代了嗎?<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 12月14日,聯儲局FED的利率決策會議震驚了全球金融市場,鮑威爾發表了前所未有的鴿派言論,最近的點陣圖顯示明年底的聯邦基金利率預期中值將調降為4.6%,暗示明年FED將減息0.75%,即降息3碼。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-9b876a8a-7fff-06c3-a66a-b257e5c4f846"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 消息一出,金融市場歡聲雷動,美債價格歡慶大漲,美國國債殖利率也立即跳水。當天2年期國債殖利率下跌28個基點至4.46%,10年期國債殖利率下跌18個基點至4.02%,全數投資級公司債券價格也隨之大漲。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一波大漲後,時間又好像回轉到大半年前,所有金融業者再次全部動起來,拼命向散戶推銷。大家都說這次是真的了,現在就是債市甜蜜點,2024年債券市場將是全年表現最佳的資產類別,投資者再不上車就遲了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 完美到沒有任何門檻,似乎只要你捧錢進場,就肯定賺得盆滿缽滿。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span> 就如一位會員在私訊中如此對我說:<p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「目前市場都普遍認為利率已經到頂,若仍依照你建議的分段入市,之後債券價格應該只會更貴?」</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我從來都不理會市場普遍認為甚麼。但如果你認為市場就是對的,那就去跟吧!」我是這樣回答的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 今天我們就來聊聊這事。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">FED的高速急轉彎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在事情發生之前,有一點事實是早已確定的:聯邦基金利率已經到了頂部,問題只是,利率需要在高位維持多久才開始降?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 而直至12月初,FED還在信誓旦旦地說,目前討論降息過早、FED不會那麼快降息、委員從未討論過任何關於降息的事情……大家還記得嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事隔13天,竟恍若隔世。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這13天,發生了甚麼足以影響利率決策的大事嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 沒有,真的沒有!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 唯一發生的,是前聯儲局主席葉倫在FOMO會議前發聲,她表示不引發高失業率和經濟衰退就無法將通脹恢復正常的說法,沒有堅實基礎,「沒有看到任何理由,足以顯示最後一哩路將是特別艱難的」云云。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 簡單來說,葉倫就是對FED暫不降息的說法開炮。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 葉倫現任財政部長,與拜登同屬民主黨,她這番話後,FED隨即口風急轉彎,很難不令人懷疑,是與拜登為了明年總統大選需要維持民望和股市熱度有關。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後市場慣性地超前預期,一口咬定明年3月開始減息,全年減6次!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAtXJ75K2Spv94BjNNfdou0AXa6S8uTtVGsei7NOYOR7M4LjccMV28aNuFpTAEYq6RoV5tsnDW65IwdT5gnSX3MPFZckpSM0L03583yMX1VuXIa_kNhpIcJE4Lp1S0afWcqEnTD71xUQBoGldNukDr3y2Dhx1LhRos3BwrfRW-c_zH7hZi0DtVxRCqx9DD/s635/20231220%20-%20FED%E6%80%A5%E8%BD%89%E5%BD%8E%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E5%80%91%E5%9B%9E%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%8E%E6%81%AF%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%86%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="305" data-original-width="635" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAtXJ75K2Spv94BjNNfdou0AXa6S8uTtVGsei7NOYOR7M4LjccMV28aNuFpTAEYq6RoV5tsnDW65IwdT5gnSX3MPFZckpSM0L03583yMX1VuXIa_kNhpIcJE4Lp1S0afWcqEnTD71xUQBoGldNukDr3y2Dhx1LhRos3BwrfRW-c_zH7hZi0DtVxRCqx9DD/w400-h193/20231220%20-%20FED%E6%80%A5%E8%BD%89%E5%BD%8E%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E5%80%91%E5%9B%9E%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%8E%E6%81%AF%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%86%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(</span><a href="https://cn.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://cn.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">) </span></div><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那麼利率是否一去不回頭了?是否真如大部份人認為的,很快我們就會回到低息時代了?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">可以有幾套劇本?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 無可否認,FED的言論對市場有舉足輕重的影響力,一言一行都足以對市場造成打擊。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,影響力,並不等於預知能力。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 讓我們先認知幾件事實:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">點陣圖只是代表FED官員在這一刻的預估,但以往的歷史告訴我們,點陣圖一直在變,不代表一定成為未來,最多只能拿來當參考;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">鮑威爾的言論,也一直在變,有時更會出錯,例如他曾經揚言通脹只是暫時性的;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">FED會議的每次利率決定,都是依照最新的通脹趨勢走。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-left: 24pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">如果第三點成立,我們可以思考以下幾個問題:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">11月美國核心CPI數字為4%,FED的目標為2%,明年真的可以降到2%以下?</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">假設真如市場預期,早至明年3月開始降息,大概率將會令美國股市再創新高。歐美股市齊升,財富效應就會顯現,這樣對降低通脹有利?</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">截至2023年12月8日,美國失業率為3.7%,在明年總統大選的氣氛下,拜登政府大概率不能讓失業率大幅上升。失業率低,物價就難以下降,這樣對降低通脹有利?</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">在過去20年,FED的每一次降息不是發生在股市大跌後,就是在預見金融流動性出現危機時,這次會例外嗎?</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">高利率,同時也是對付強國的手段之一,在美中貿易戰如火如荼時,降息同時也在緩解強國的壓力,對美國真的好嗎?</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">別誤會我的意思,和之前的文章一樣,我不是預測利率,建議投資或不投資,我只是在提醒風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">你現在跟著人家捧錢進場,因為你覺得明年鐵定只有一套劇本:通脹真的降至2%以下,不管美國經濟是否真的衰退,FED都會降息,這時長期債券的價格會再次飛漲,你能夠很快賺得盆滿缽滿。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">你是這樣想的,對嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">有沒有想過,也許可以有另一套劇本?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">因為關於利率的預測,連華爾街最專業的人對FED接下來的利率走向看法也往往兩極。甚至連FED這班人,也可以今天的我打倒昨天的自己。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">你怎麼可以肯定,他們明天不會打倒今天的自己?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">會不會有一種可能,明年的通脹在下降過程中就停止了,降不下去也升不上去,這時FED又出來大喊可能還要升息?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">別忘了在世界另一邊,兩場戰爭還未結束呢!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">你今天買入的超長期債券或TLT之類的,有沒有可能再次價格下跌,再次被套牢,就像半年前那樣? </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">是否還有另一種可能性,就是美國10年國債殖利率一直維持在4%左右,而你就是在這裡All in了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">在這樣的情況下,債券價格是回穩了,但回穩的另一層意思就是代表短期內不會有明顯的價差套利。這時,你就只能每年穩穩地領4%利息等待,你真的滿足於4%利息? </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">或者,大家真的覺得FED此時放鴿,暗示明年降息三次,然後搭配金融體系一起帶風向,讓大家一齊買美債,是向全球韭菜歡送聖誕大利是?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">別忘了,美國財政部明年將淨發債2兆美元,其中長天期債券比例更將會增多。你確定現在這一系列行動,不是一個大套路?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">真正的劇本,會否是引導眾多投資者參與美債市場,然後迫使他們只能依賴利息收益熬時間,以這種方式共同支持美國,持續維護美元的主導地位?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">市場的超前預期</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我一直主張分段入市,因為我從來不相信市場一面倒的說法,也自認沒有能力去預測利率。如果真要我亂猜的話,我會覺得現在的金融環境,並不支持明年3月就開始降息,最快也要在明年下半年。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">而我們都知道,預期愈高,波動愈大,只要市場預期和實際出現一點誤差,就會再次造成長債價格的大波瀾。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">有些人肯定會抬槓,說減息是鐵板釘釘的事,遲早會發生,我也不怕波動,現在All-in,最多守一守,最終還是能賺到價差!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">首先,很多人的認知還停留在之前的零息時代,他們將那時接近零的基準利率環境當成了標準。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">事實上,如果我們將歷史再拉闊,那十數年的零息時代是被扭曲的利率環境,並不是正常的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">正常的利率環境,基準利率是在3%以上,那才接近歷史的平均值。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">其次,讓我們再看看美國10年期國債殖利率 vs 美國基準利率走勢圖:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXUJzE4JXtv_iMaAh5dd8JYjmtNiPd4h38aTsOkL0-L1IJCvKeTUQ3NB31ZIoUOKptD9UI9zPTfCUVQG6ZbXP94lEedh8rmdkOoocCPEOxvqnNHQTp-_pOR4A2A-a5L_VjFktmRTpqq0xJQy96mbqBKhJ6feqom8gpOnqSEoNh9qFORXG_VK68B1gkgwY7/s1275/20231220%20-%20FED%E6%80%A5%E8%BD%89%E5%BD%8E%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E5%80%91%E5%9B%9E%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%8E%E6%81%AF%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%86%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="1275" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXUJzE4JXtv_iMaAh5dd8JYjmtNiPd4h38aTsOkL0-L1IJCvKeTUQ3NB31ZIoUOKptD9UI9zPTfCUVQG6ZbXP94lEedh8rmdkOoocCPEOxvqnNHQTp-_pOR4A2A-a5L_VjFktmRTpqq0xJQy96mbqBKhJ6feqom8gpOnqSEoNh9qFORXG_VK68B1gkgwY7/w400-h203/20231220%20-%20FED%E6%80%A5%E8%BD%89%E5%BD%8E%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E5%80%91%E5%9B%9E%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%8E%E6%81%AF%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%86%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">(</span><a href="https://www.macromicro.me/charts/6149/mei-guo-10-nian-qi-gong-zhai-zhi-li-lv-vs-ji-zhun-li-lv" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.macromicro.me/charts/6149/mei-guo-10-nian-qi-gong-zhai-zhi-li-lv-vs-ji-zhun-li-lv</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">)</span></div></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 執筆之時,10年期國債殖利率為3.93%,而基準利率為5.33%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 由圖中可以見到,在過去40年的大多數時間裡,基準利率普遍都低於美國10年期國債殖利率,但現在,基準利率明顯高於10年期國債殖利率。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">這和債息倒掛有關,同時也是市場對基準利率調降超前預期的結果。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們就假設,在合理情況下,基準利率會調降至與10年期國債殖利率相等。假設至明年底,FED真的如市場預期減息3碼,代表基準利率將由5.33%降至4.58%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">調降後的基準利率4.58%,仍是明顯高於10年期國債殖利率的3.93%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">假設10年期國債殖利率不變,要讓兩者利率相等,基準利率就必須減5-6碼。除非,10年期國債殖利率調頭上升。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 換句話說,現在的債券價格,已預期了FED將減息5-6碼!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 當然,在市場氣氛熾熱下,超前可以再超前,價格創高後也可以再高,我只是將這部份的現實數據講出來,怎麼解讀是投資者自己的事。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">總結</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 猶記得兩個月前,FED主席鮑威爾還在發表鷹派言論,說美國經濟表現堅韌,不排除進一步升息,言論令市場震驚,10年期國債一舉升破5%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 兩個月後,同一個人發表鴿派言論,說不能等到通脹來到2%才降息,暗示明年降息三次,言論令市場震驚,10年期國債一舉跌破4%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你怎麼知道,下一次這傢伙又會說甚麼?!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 每一次,散戶都會被傳媒帶動,認為這次肯定錯不了,無腦賺錢的時機到了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後,就被套牢。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但不用等多久,類似事件再次重覆上演,奇妙的是,散戶會完全忘記之前發生的事,依舊全心全意相信主流傳媒所帶的風向,相信文首所言的「市場普遍認為」。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後,又被套牢了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 循環不休,如無間地獄。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 每一次,是每一次,散戶每一次都不會汲取哪怕是一丁點的教訓。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我一直很奇怪,他們的記憶是和金魚一樣嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 確實,現時利率已到頂部,減息是遲早的事,但是只憑這一條連你鄰居家的那條狗也知道的所謂資訊就可以賺到錢,會不會好像太完美了一點?一盤不會賠錢的生意,何時會輪得到我們散戶?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 而債券這類東西,本來是拿來收息的,當你覺得收益率夠高就投進去,不然就是分批入場長坐收息,為何一定要拿穩定見長的東西來賺價差?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 當你手裡拿著錘子,眼中滿世界就都是釘子?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">以上沒有任何投資建議成份。投資是個人行為,敬請自行研究並自負盈虧與責任。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-27749614080047481732023-12-07T20:00:00.015+08:002023-12-09T18:19:50.768+08:00何去何從的台灣總統大選<p><span face="新細明體, serif" style="text-align: justify;"> 以下是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-align: justify;">2023</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="text-align: justify;">年全球表現最好的股市:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBX_PW0o-t64wr-VnrbWurE-XMQdXoGBVHL3WCdwBwZFfY918_nx5hAopOqv9ydL-NRG5RItddFPldIw62SHxJyuMawVaA4_n7uvMF3pOjCX7WBzLnSvcFngZ2acHcrY7X8ya4d-M-BcSG_UcOP9DiXvO6zvjbQ-EHVmh89SxC7z6YVeeHxtEDsL21lXQV/s541/20231207%20-%20%E4%BD%95%E5%8E%BB%E4%BD%95%E5%BE%9E%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="541" data-original-width="172" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBX_PW0o-t64wr-VnrbWurE-XMQdXoGBVHL3WCdwBwZFfY918_nx5hAopOqv9ydL-NRG5RItddFPldIw62SHxJyuMawVaA4_n7uvMF3pOjCX7WBzLnSvcFngZ2acHcrY7X8ya4d-M-BcSG_UcOP9DiXvO6zvjbQ-EHVmh89SxC7z6YVeeHxtEDsL21lXQV/w203-h640/20231207%20-%20%E4%BD%95%E5%8E%BB%E4%BD%95%E5%BE%9E%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8-1.jpg" width="203" /></a><span><a name='more'></a></span></div><p></p><p style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以下是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年全球表現最差的股市:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGqBwuDUJfGae6Em9nKYvafLFJfeSElCCdZbZCa28vToHpYItwnKgK60TM0DhHcXFCQYDhLkgafEmQdRF0YP5WZRCVCri3s8VDn183ABqHm5Tgag6L_eVqv9BWiMaB6WRv6X-ge2NdwoIzZVU99PVI6urQg-b17VAUMr9ZyG_F62-CbziyYcfCw0hJTZ9w/s528/20231207%20-%20%E4%BD%95%E5%8E%BB%E4%BD%95%E5%BE%9E%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="166" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGqBwuDUJfGae6Em9nKYvafLFJfeSElCCdZbZCa28vToHpYItwnKgK60TM0DhHcXFCQYDhLkgafEmQdRF0YP5WZRCVCri3s8VDn183ABqHm5Tgag6L_eVqv9BWiMaB6WRv6X-ge2NdwoIzZVU99PVI6urQg-b17VAUMr9ZyG_F62-CbziyYcfCw0hJTZ9w/w202-h640/20231207%20-%20%E4%BD%95%E5%8E%BB%E4%BD%95%E5%BE%9E%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8-2.jpg" width="202" /></a></div><span face="新細明體, serif"><p style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="text-indent: 22pt;">我們且撇除一些小型和未成熟國家的股市,如阿根廷、委內瑞拉、埃及、巴基斯坦甚麼的,只看主要國家股市,有沒有發現甚麼傾向?</span></p></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 很明顯,美國或與美國交好,即所謂「親美」的國家,包括美國自己的納斯達克、日本、台灣、韓國等等,今年(以及過去幾年)的股市幾乎都處於最佳、向上增長、正數的一邊;相對的,中國或所謂「親中」國家,例如上海、泰國、香港等等,今年(以及過去幾年)的股市幾乎都處於最差、向下萎縮、負數的一邊。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 即使是飽受俄烏戰爭困擾的歐洲國家,今年的股市也是全數呈現正增長,除了與中國背靠背的俄羅斯。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtbEq8Ius14CHVZQAr_aKEwupsLXuT24vN_NyzYg-VwHujxBT9w0wx6A5pKVM18euCcfSuMbzjxxeanzCdcl-EnYcm87EMXlDpJMkZDYeDZktIEqGKp_adnlADiLKv0pZ51eORwEpr_pgJLBtl2gCjAXPkx-O63WlMUc1DoHSFp3NvUw2PjM2AK-XFPo1a/s687/20231207%20-%20%E4%BD%95%E5%8E%BB%E4%BD%95%E5%BE%9E%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="387" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtbEq8Ius14CHVZQAr_aKEwupsLXuT24vN_NyzYg-VwHujxBT9w0wx6A5pKVM18euCcfSuMbzjxxeanzCdcl-EnYcm87EMXlDpJMkZDYeDZktIEqGKp_adnlADiLKv0pZ51eORwEpr_pgJLBtl2gCjAXPkx-O63WlMUc1DoHSFp3NvUw2PjM2AK-XFPo1a/w360-h640/20231207%20-%20%E4%BD%95%E5%8E%BB%E4%BD%95%E5%BE%9E%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8-3.jpg" width="360" /></a></div><span face="新細明體, serif"><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span> 世界再次分化為東西兩大陣營的趨勢早已確立,有些人天真地以為習拜會緩和了中美關係,不,那只是大趨勢中的波幅,並不影響大局。</span></p></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 選擇站在哪一邊?是美歐日韓聯盟或中俄朝鮮聯盟?這對未來幾十年的國運將是最大的關鍵。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2024</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月的台灣中華民國總統大選,就是台灣選擇站在哪一邊的選擇。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><u><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">東升西降?</span></u><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">11</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">28</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日下午</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點,香港恒生指數和台灣加權指數終於出現了黃金交叉。不止如此,今年以來台股在全亞洲的漲幅僅次於日本,緊隨著的是印度和韓國;至於上海和香港恒生指數,則勇奪全球股市表現最差的第一和第三名。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 亞洲區表現最佳的日本終於擺脫了失落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">30</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,這與日本在美中貿易戰中站對邊有直接關係,表現次佳的台灣與韓國也如此。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 「東升西降」,某位小學生說得很有道理。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 中國股市的墮落,除了美中貿易戰與晶片戰的影響外,關鍵點還在於中共在疫情以來一連串令人大開眼界的騷操作,直接導致中國經濟全方位的崩潰與內憂外患。至於香港,我們更是親眼見證這個曾經最自由的金融殿堂,如何崩塌成國際金融中心遺址。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black;">「</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">眼看他起朱樓,眼看他宴賓客,眼看他樓塌了。這青苔碧瓦堆,俺曾睡風流覺,將五十年興亡看飽。</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black;">」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 台灣,則因為和中國保持距離,在國際晶片戰中取得關鍵地位,相關資金陸續回流,產業同時跟著進步。截至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年前三季,台灣企業(全體上市櫃公司)淨利已達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2.25</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">兆台幣,別忘了,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2004-2015</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年國民黨馬英九執政期間,台灣企業全年獲利只在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">1.2-1.5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">兆台幣之間。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 這個時候,有台灣總統候選人的政綱,竟是要立即重啟與中國之間的服貿關係?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 這就是將台灣經濟與奄奄一息的中國經濟綁在一起,他們真的懂經濟和台灣產業嗎?他們到底是在幫誰?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 胡說八道也就罷了,許多台灣投資人卻真的相信和支持開放服貿,他們就像精神分裂一邊,一邊希望手中的台股上漲,一邊卻說台灣經濟差必須依靠中國。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 在連穆迪也在下調中國與香港的評級展望至「負面」的時候,這些人就算晒黑了也不能掩蓋他們是白痴的事實。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 我們不說歷史,只需睜一睜眼睛看看中國最近發生的事,隨手拈來包括:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 房地產泡沫爆破、去槓桿化、高失業率、地方財政困難、人口老齡化、國家養老金告急、年輕人失業率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">46.5%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、內外資倉皇出逃、民企被共同富裕</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">……<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">90</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年後</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">1.75</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">億人口有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">86.6%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">負債、平均每人負債</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">12</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬人民幣、恒大負債</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2.44</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">兆人民(接近俄羅斯和阿根廷)、房企優等生碧桂園違約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2250</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬美元債</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">……<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 躺平式開放大規模死亡、秦剛下台、李尚福丟官、火箭軍整肅、李克強被心臟病猝逝、除夕夜取消放假、蛋炒飯被消失</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">……<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 還有,失業率高得要蓋牌,年輕人相約集體自殺,爛尾樓房貸白領變貧民,外長與防長隨時失蹤,退休半年的總理突然死亡</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">……<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 22pt;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這個國家的荒謬絕倫之處,全球電影電視都不敢這麼拍。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 還在相信中國經濟有救?相信台灣可以依靠中國?這種人的智商和喜馬拉雅山的氧氣一樣——稀薄。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><u><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">三組台灣總統候選人</span></u><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 不管中共如何暗中全力介入台灣大選,尋求</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black;">「共」識,</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「藍白合」最終淪為笑話。</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black;">「五漢廢言」</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">後,三組台灣總統候選人正式開跑。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 第一組,國民黨侯友宜和趙少康組合。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 自侯友宜找來「戰鬥藍」趙少康做搭檔後,似乎國民黨真的不再演了,索性舔共路線一條路走到底。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 作為中天電視台政論節目的中流砥柱,趙少康幾乎等於中共在台的傳聲筒,無論是多年以前宣稱陳水扁當選台北市長中華民國將會毀滅,或最近堅決反對台灣延長兵役、堅決抵制台灣軍購案。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 國民黨不分區立委候選人的首位赫然是韓國瑜,以藍營的鐵票,代表此人鐵定進入議會,而且是不可罷免的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 再看看國民黨的參選政綱,大量開放中國學生來台就讀和就業、快速重啟中國服貿協議,令人嘆為觀止,先不論國安問題,這政綱根本就是為了解決中國失業率、挽救中國經濟而設立的嘛。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 民進黨宣稱國民黨的政綱「親中」,我認為錯了,完全不對,那政綱不是親中,那根本就是中國化政策!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 第二組,民眾黨柯文哲和吳欣盈組合。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 一直以來,柯文哲都以中立、敢言、超越藍綠自居,吸引了大批柯粉。但這麼久以來以他的行為,我只見到一個不折不扣的投機者,實事不見他做到,最喜歡酸言酸語放冷箭,聞著就是一股人渣味。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 柯文哲最大的本事是臉皮夠厚,敢用行為一一推翻自己以往的言論:自稱「超越藍綠」,轉頭卻去和藍營攪混在一起搞藍白合(最後破局只因政治分贓不均);自稱「遠離財團、絕對中立」,轉頭卻去找最具代表性的財團千金吳欣盈做競選拍擋,明擺官商勾結</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">……<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 我不敢斷定柯文哲是否已被中共收買,但如果說國民黨是中共在台代理人,柯就是百份百的見風轉舵投機者。這樣說吧,假設有一天中共真的打來台灣,內應必定是國民黨,而第一個投降者兼帶路者必定是柯。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 柯文哲的搭檔,新光財團富三代吳欣盈,人稱「草包公主」,過往最為人所知的事是專權無能與愛好權鬥,幾年前在攪亂父親的新光集團後被踢出董事會。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 柯文哲找吳欣盈做搭檔,有沒有可能是看上吳的政治能力?真對不起,吳除了在去年底靠背景關係遞補為立法委員外,在政治履歷上一無所有。作為總統的第一後備人選,竟然可以毫無政治經歷,我也是服了,難道真是人如其名,「無心贏」?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 第三組,民進黨賴清德和蕭美琴。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 賴清德有豐富政治履歷,蕭美琴在駐美大使任內表現卓越,促成良好台美關係,曾被紐約時報稱讚為華府最有影響力的大使。但這一組也不是沒有缺點的,我覺得他們的選舉策略太保守了,或許是出自於選舉策略,他們好像覺得只要守住基本盤、少做少錯就行。我見不到他們有甚麼出色的政綱,拿出來的東西四平八穩、老調重彈。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 尤其賴清德身為蔡英文執政時期的副總統,卻沒有對蔡政府在過去執政</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">8</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年期間的不足之處(例如很多台灣民眾對台灣經濟增長無感)作出任何反省與檢討,令人失望。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 但是,這組已是唯一看上去比較正常的總統候選人,其他兩組,真的就是兩坨大便、兩坨狗屎!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 差點忘了,本來還有第三坨狗屎的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 那個本想參選的郭姓富商,之前煞有介事、「係威係勢」自誇有能力與中共談判,搞定和平宣言,結果中共只是出手查一查稅,郭立即潛水,吭也不敢吭一聲,然後認輸、退選、換取輕罰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 同為富商,姓郭的和姓黎的,竟可以一地一天,風骨相差何止十萬八千里。龜孫子之輩,以郭為最。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><u><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">政黨輪替的迷思</span></u><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 很多台灣人有一個迷思,覺得民主就一定要政黨輪替,不能一個政黨做太久。事實上,這想法在民主國家也很常見,人總有</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black;">「燈下黑」的傾向,</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">無論哪個政黨上台,民望都會下跌,美歐日台皆然。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 根據民調,支持藍或白的台灣選民佔了選民總數</span><span style="text-align: left;">5成以上,也代表反對民進黨繼續執政是主流民意。</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 不少攻擊民進黨的論點是出自於對岸的認知作戰,例如高端炒股圖利、進口雞蛋吃壞人之類的,這些抹黑,如果叫他們拿實質證據出來,他們是拿不出來的。但無可否認,民進黨本身確有許多不足之處,包括遲遲沒有通過中共代理人法案,或某些民進黨人的行為(柯建銘的關說事件、趙天麟的中國籍婚外情事件等等),民進黨內部大概率也有中共的滲透,這是中共的強項。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 所以,我極之贊成不管是執政黨或是在野黨,該查的就要查,該罰的就要罰。我也不想每次投票都只能選民進黨候選人,我也想有正常的第三勢力制衡。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 如果你真的厭惡民進黨,總統選票外,我們可以考慮如何分配另外兩張選票,一張區域立委票,一張政黨票。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 但是,台灣絕對、絕對、絕對要避免那些想讓中共統治台灣,或不介意中共統治台灣的人和政黨!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 民進黨執政會啟動戰爭的那些謬論,我之前已聊得太多了,這次不再討論。政黨輪替是民主的一個機制,但不代表必然發生,尤其在其他在野黨太爛的情況下。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 台灣的現實好像是,當你覺得端著的這碗飯不好吃,想替換時,替換的另一選擇是吃狗屎。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 甚至一旦選擇錯誤,很可能這就是最後一次選擇了,很可能從此大家被逼要永遠吃狗屎了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 因此,只有分清輕重緩急,先阻擋那些賣國的狗屎,先守住得來不易的民主體制,我們才有培育本土力量、扶植第三勢力、鞭策執政黨的機會。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 否則,我們就沒有未來了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2024</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">13</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日,天佑台灣!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">參考條目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/2024%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8-%E7%AB%8B%E5%A7%94%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%87%B6%E4%BA%BA%E5%8C%85-%E4%B8%8D%E5%88%86%E5%8D%80%E7%AB%8B%E5%A7%94-%E6%94%BF%E9%BB%A8%E7%A5%A8-013030507.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://tw.news.yahoo.com/2024%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8-%E7%AB%8B%E5%A7%94%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%87%B6%E4%BA%BA%E5%8C%85-%E4%B8%8D%E5%88%86%E5%8D%80%E7%AB%8B%E5%A7%94-%E6%94%BF%E9%BB%A8%E7%A5%A8-013030507.html</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.stockq.org/market/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://www.stockq.org/market/</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUHo2Sdo9n8" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUHo2Sdo9n8</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E5%90%B3%E6%AC%A3%E7%9B%88" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E5%90%B3%E6%AC%A3%E7%9B%88</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E8%B3%B4%E6%B8%85%E5%BE%B7" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E8%B3%B4%E6%B8%85%E5%BE%B7</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E8%95%AD%E7%BE%8E%E7%90%B4" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E8%95%AD%E7%BE%8E%E7%90%B4</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E6%9F%AF%E5%BB%BA%E9%8A%98" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E6%9F%AF%E5%BB%BA%E9%8A%98</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E8%B6%99%E5%B0%91%E5%BA%B7" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E8%B6%99%E5%B0%91%E5%BA%B7</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.cna.com.tw/news/asoc/202103220036.aspx" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://www.cna.com.tw/news/asoc/202103220036.aspx</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E8%B3%B4%E6%B8%85%E5%BE%B7%E6%8F%90%E5%9C%8B%E6%94%BF%E5%A4%A7%E7%B6%B1-%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%82%BA%E5%85%B1%E8%AD%98-044437691.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E8%B3%B4%E6%B8%85%E5%BE%B7%E6%8F%90%E5%9C%8B%E6%94%BF%E5%A4%A7%E7%B6%B1-%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%82%BA%E5%85%B1%E8%AD%98-044437691.html</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E9%A6%AC%E6%96%87%E5%90%9B%E8%BC%B8%E4%BA%86-%E8%B6%99%E5%A4%A9%E9%BA%9F-%E8%A6%AA%E4%B8%AD%E8%88%94%E5%85%B1-%E8%81%B2%E9%87%8F%E5%A5%AA%E5%86%A0-053400151.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E9%A6%AC%E6%96%87%E5%90%9B%E8%BC%B8%E4%BA%86-%E8%B6%99%E5%A4%A9%E9%BA%9F-%E8%A6%AA%E4%B8%AD%E8%88%94%E5%85%B1-%E8%81%B2%E9%87%8F%E5%A5%AA%E5%86%A0-053400151.html</span></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-62363432558912831072023-11-22T21:00:00.005+08:002023-11-22T21:00:00.150+08:00 投資者的靈魂拷問<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我要好好學習使用IB,學會投資,就不用再做這份工作了!」</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-4801ce21-7fff-a0d3-29b9-bf85b4c5d931"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 很多人不是想學投資,而是想逃避工作。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我要好好學習投資」,這句話不少朋友對我說過,不例外地,凡是經常說這句話的人,往往就是最不願意動手的人。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我真的很忙呀!下個禮拜,下個禮拜開始!」他們總是這樣說。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後,就沒有然後了。聽君一席話,如說一席話。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 今天,我們來好好聊聊這事。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">第一步:努力工作</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對於全職投資者而言,賺100次1萬元是他們的工作,可惜,成功的全職投資者萬中無一,那是一份極違反人性的工作,不是一般人可以做到的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對一般人而言,短時間賺到幾千或幾萬元的一次性價差獲利,沒有意思,因為那不是持續性的。除非你可以時時找到這種機會且勝率很高,否則努力的方向應該是可以每年得到穩定的現金流,最終達到在不工作的狀況下仍可以維持生活。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 可是,如果你的投資本金是由零開始累積,這個過程將非常漫長,快的話也許10年有點小成,慢的話20年、30年都有可能,沒有一定的興趣、堅持與信仰很難走到最後,這也是大部份人最後放棄投資的原因。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在大多數情況下,投資的前10年,靠本業認真上班賺的錢,會遠高於投資的獲利。因此,我們不是靠投資就不用努力工作,而是必須更努力工作,才有錢去投資。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">第二步:培養興趣</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一些人以為,懶系投資,就是研究後投入一筆錢,然後甚麼也不用理會。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不,懶系投資法和其他投資法都一樣,都是長期不間斷的堅持。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如何才能長期不間斷地堅持?不能純靠自律,是需要將投資和生活完全融合。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 成功的投資者,他們的電視或Youtube頻道,大部份是新聞和財經頻道;走入書店,不自覺會自動走到經濟和投資書籍分類區;打開報紙,首先會閱讀經濟版;購買物品,必然下意識地計算回報率……他們從不將「學習投資」當成一項Task去做,投資在他們的世界無處不在,理財意識已滲入血液,融入身體。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這必然需要一種東西:興趣。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 人性,是很難靠自律長期堅持的,尤其投資,不會有人逼著你去做,大部份人要做到長期堅持,除非自身有動力。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 動力如何產生?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 興趣。只有興趣,才能產生長期堅持的動力。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這種興趣,我們往俗了說,就是:貪錢!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 要很愛錢,極度愛錢!!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你可能會說:錢,誰會不愛?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 還真不是!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 真正愛錢的人,是喜歡金錢流入的狀態,而大多數人,只是喜歡金錢流出的狀態——他們享受花錢,不是享受賺錢。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這中間是有分別的,你仔細想想。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 是不是有些人,只要自覺有一點錢,就會買東西不看價格?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 是不是有些人,為了減壓,胡亂花錢?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 真正愛錢的人,無論多麼有錢,用每一分錢都會計算計算再計算,他們不是不花錢,而是盡量將錢花在刀口上。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對金錢不敏感、甚至潛意識討厭金錢的人,是不可能成為一位成功投資者的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 長期讀者可能知道,我其實不喜歡數字,很討厭閱讀財報,我本質上是個文人,但我同時又是一個對數字很敏感的人。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為我並不是真的喜歡投資和閱讀財報,我只是愛錢,瘋狂的愛錢,我喜歡錢進來,不喜歡錢出去。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我從小到大都不能理解,為何有些人可以通過花錢來減壓。花錢對我來說只會帶來壓力,是很討厭的事,因為那是一種金錢流出的狀態。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 除非,花錢能換來相應或更高的價值流入,那就類同於投資。例如,花錢請朋友吃飯,是在投資人際關係;花錢去旅遊,是為了拓闊眼界尋找新的機會。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">第三步:了解自己</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我很討厭別人以「忙」為藉口,不去理財。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 很忙而不去做某件事,代表那件事沒有足夠的份量,俗稱不重要。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不重要,你才會沒有時間去理會,如果你真的很重視那件事,你一定不會沒有時間的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 工作很忙,回家很累,沒有時間研究投資?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 說這話的人,空閒時間通常是在追劇、打遊戲、唱KTV、掃臉書、看抖音……</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 每過60秒,就有一分鐘過去了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你覺得自己很忙,沒有時間去做這件事,只有三種可能性:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">你覺得這件事不重要、不緊急,可以無限期延後;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">你壓根就沒興趣去做這件事,你根本不想做,你是在逃避;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">二者皆是。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你討厭金錢、討厭理財,這事本身沒有對錯,錯的是你不去正視。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你不去正視,可是投資理財這回事,無論你怎麼逃避,都繞不過去的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 只有正視,正視自己就是這樣的人,正視自己根本沒興趣去學習投資,你才會明白為何自己總是亂聽消息炒股,總是低沽高買,總是做韭菜。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你才會明白,你過往的所謂投資,只是賭博,想不勞而獲。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你是這樣的人,一是改變自己,一是放棄投資,賺錢還是有其他方法的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 相信我,如果你對錢沒有興趣,學習投資會比你上班更辛苦。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 現在,我們聊聊投資工具。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 很多人都覺得IB介面非常複雜,望而生畏,事實上,就算是我,對IB TWS功能的認識,也還不到百份之一。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但那又怎樣?這並不會阻止我使用IB平台去投資,因為IB幾乎是全球最全面最方便的投資平台了。我不需要完全熟悉IB介面,我只需要懂得使用那幾個必要功能就夠了,其他的,等真的需要再去摸索好了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這世界沒有百份百完善的東西,堪用就行。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有些人,他們的投資只限於股票、ETD和優先股,他們心內也知道國債和公司債的好處,但他們就堅持只投資在股票市場上市的東西,因為他們只持有本地銀行或複委託的美股帳戶。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 他們會說很多美國網上券商的致命傷,甚麼倒閉風險啦、遺產稅風險啦、缺乏支援啦,呱啦呱啦一大堆,無論你如何拼命向他們澄清那些所謂致命傷只是誤解,他們也不會聽得進去。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為那些只是藉口,他們是懼怕,懼怕英文介面、懼怕重新學習、懼怕不懂和外國人溝通、懼怕錢出了國外不懂處理、懼怕踏出投資舒適圈……</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 還有很多香港本地投資者,無論港股如何不濟、如何沒有前景,他們堅持留在港股市場,然後色厲內荏的說,港股現在很便宜,沒有再跌的餘地,別人恐懼我貪婪。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這些人也是懼怕,懼怕去一個全新的投資世界,懼怕踏出自己的投資舒適圈……</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 懼怕,是人之常情,但請誠實面對自己,欺騙別人不要緊,千萬不要騙著騙著,連自己都欺騙了!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">第四步:動手</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 小時候,遇上難以解決的事,我會天真地想,等我長大成人了,有足夠能力了,問題自然可以迎刃而解。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 長大之後我才知道,根本沒有自動生成能力解決問題這回事,相反,隨著年齡的增長,問題層出不窮,綿延向前根本沒有盡頭。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 想要解決問題,唯一方法,就是動手。只有動手,才有足夠能力解決問題。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 就像熟讀一百遍教授游泳的書籍,你不下水,也永遠不懂游泳。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資這回事,沒有萬事俱備只欠東風的,沒有所謂你找到一個好師傅,學習一會兒,然後就成為老手的,沒有。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但很多人不相信,他們的思想還停留在小時候的學校上課考試,堅持想找一種公式,跟著做就賺到錢。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後社會上真的出現了非常多這種東西,他們告訴你,只要學會我這種秘技公式或投資某項商品,你就可以日賺三千、或5年內由零至千萬,從此達成財富自由。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你如果相信,花費巨額金錢去上課或將錢投資在他們的推介商品,最終的結局,一定是他們靠你達成財富自由,而不是你靠他們達成財富自由。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 每個人都是不一樣的,包括年紀、性格、背景、家庭負擔、風險承受能力等等,不可能一條公式就適合所有人。例如,不可能所有30歲的人都適合70-30的股債比例,更遑論內裡的股債成份。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 每個人,都應該有只屬於自己的、適合自己的投資策略,而且隨著環境和能力變化不斷作出調整。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如何才知道甚麼是適合自己的投資策略?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 別想了,去做,去實戰!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們每一個人,都不可能擁有先知的智慧,是不可能單憑想像就可以做出判斷的。想知道現實是如何運轉,最直截了當且實用的方法,就是親身去體驗,當你親自去感受之後,這個世界將以回饋方式呈現給你。即便你頭腦中擁有千百個想法、萬千個方案,親身體驗往往能夠快速淘汰其中的大部分,你將清楚地了解哪些想法是無效的,哪些想法實際上並非真正的想法,而僅僅是單純的錯誤。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這大概就是世界運行的規律,你一開始怎麼想,根本不重要。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">成功投資者的條件</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 甚麼樣的人可以成為成功的投資者?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 總是忘記繳付帳單、從不去看信用卡月結單、不清楚每月收入花去了哪裡、購買東西但憑喜好不看價錢、一出門就犯懶隨手招計程車……這樣的人,一定不會是成功的投資者。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為這種人其實不喜歡錢。你不喜歡錢,錢就不會向你飛來。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 日常理財一塌糊塗,投資卻能得心應手,千金散盡還復來,這種爽事,只可能出現在電視的爽劇中,是給你看爽的,不可能出現在現實中。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資理財,投資理財,投資看似是理財的一部份,兩者其實是同一回事。投資和理財都是生活、思想、性格,不懂理財,就不懂投資。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這只是第一步,你還要培養興趣,賺錢的興趣,投資的興趣,自主學習的興趣。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後,才是投資能力。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">所謂投資能力,核心在於對自己的了解,並建立一套屬於自己的投資思維體系。普遍而言,大部分投資者在投資過程中最常遭遇的問題是,他們難以確定所選目標資產是否真的具有投資價值,同時也難以判斷最佳的買入時機。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">當良好的投資機會降臨時,一般投資者可能感到迷茫,不確定應該投入多少資金,更加無法清晰地界定何時應該出場或在何種情況下立即脫手。如果這些問題難以解答,那麼無論投資者在牛市中經歷過多少成功,賺取了多少利潤,最終都可能在熊市中遭遇慘敗。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">投資的成功與否不僅取決於順風順水時的表現,更關鍵的是在逆境中的應對能力。一位投資者,其成功與否很大程度上取決於能否在每一次交易中吸取教訓,從而不斷積累經驗和技能,而這是任何人都無法替代的 </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 再完美的理論和策略,不經過實戰,那也就是零,等於空氣。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 再怎麼刻苦學習理論,都只是起步點,關鍵在你的經驗和技能。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 經驗和技能,只能通過實戰取得,一步步打怪拿到經驗值,別無他法。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這個世界,只有那些能實際付諸行動的人,才有成功的機會。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-20762799857204949152023-11-07T20:30:00.000+08:002023-11-07T20:30:00.158+08:00 如何對沖匯率風險?<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以下是一位會員的私訊:</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-4c6c9fec-7fff-2a69-9a0e-fbd56619be57"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「風兄你好。我見到IB上面借日元的息率很低,只有1厘多,我正研究借日元換美金,然後買美債。 </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">假設我是買一年期美國國債,想請教你有甚麼方法可以鎖定日元匯率一年後可以和現在一樣?除了IB的借錢利息之外,我想最大風險就是匯率。所以想看看有沒有方法可以減低這個匯率風險。」<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 當時我不假思索地回覆如下:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我直說吧,沒有!有的話人人都會像你這樣做。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 確實有一系列外匯工具來管理或對沖風險,包括遠期合約、期貨、外匯交換交易(又稱外匯掉期,Foreign Exchange Swaps)和期權。但那些多是企業用來對沖商業風險的,可能是收入在1千500萬美元到3億美元之間的企業。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 散戶要以外匯工具對沖,難度和成本都很高,多數得不償失。」</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我的回答,其實是一下子跳到了結論。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 結論是,散戶想完全避開匯率風險地安全賺取息差,是沒有可能的。但如果是已持有外匯現金或資產,想對沖匯率風險,倒確實有不少工具可以做到。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">這篇文章就聊聊這些。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">外匯遠期交易</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 想對沖匯率波動風險,就不能不先了解何謂</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">外匯遠期交易</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 外匯遠期交易(FX Forward),是一種合約,買賣雙方先約定一個匯率,約定在未來的某個特定時間進行用此匯率交易外匯。合約內會訂明買賣幣別、交易日期、交易匯率(又稱為遠期匯率)、交易金額等等,在約定的交易日期時,無論當時的市場匯率是什麼,都必須根據契約進行交易。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事先鎖定匯率在某一時間點,以規避這段時間內的匯率波動風險,是所有對沖匯率工具的基礎。或者這樣說,所有對沖匯率的工具,都是外匯遠期交易的一種表現方式。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 可是,外匯遠期交易是有成本的,假設手續費為零,成本就是合約內訂立的遠期匯率(Forward Rate,亦即交易匯率)與訂立合約時的即期匯率(Spot Rate,亦即市場匯率)之間的差額,稱為換匯點數(Swap Points)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 說回人話,就是你簽這一張合約,鎖定了未來某個時間點的匯率,但這個未來的鎖定匯率,一定差過現在的匯率,中間的差價,就是你規避這段時間的匯率風險的成本。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 現在明白了嗎?如果你想賺取兩種外匯之間的息差,又想要沒有匯率風險,就要付出這個成本,這個成本必須低於息差,你才能夠賺到。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 根據市場有效論,一般散戶是很難做到的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 外匯遠期交易,一般企業會透過商業銀行進行,主要適用於收入是外幣的公司,例如那些將產品銷售至海外的廠商,他們有必要規避匯率風險,以維持公司收入的穩定。這些公司會根據自己的貿易合約,與銀行進行客製化的外匯遠期交易合約。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 至於一般散戶,通常是通過外匯交易商(包括IB)提供的工具進行外匯遠期交易,這些工具包括外匯期貨(FX Futures)、外匯期權(FX Options)和差價合約(CFD)等等。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這些外匯工具,都屬於高槓桿的保證金交易,由於槓桿高,多數外匯交易早脫離了規避風險的本意,都是在投機。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">IB外匯工具的選擇</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在IB,每一種外匯有不同數量的投資工具,流通性亦有很大差別,交易所往往也超過一個。有的相關工具很齊全,期貨、期權、差價合約和其他結構性產品皆備,交易量卻較低(例如英鎊);有的只提供期貨和期權,交易量卻較高(例如日元)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以英鎊為例,你在IB的Watch List內輸入「GBP」並按Enter鍵,會出現相關的外匯工具選擇:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh3Cz6C7pqFVwRO6o8a-DloVEvMiKrSJWjjTon-8PtUfcHcqGXpwhc_YjbsejsscRpEMNvWMb-4MzqqpA_DNzg1jxbwUJqyn6pCrIQWvBDLMqKBUW9mWUUdd9ZcOkwCORl5-w9ZLLo35l4N4TBvjasMPWQIw9Txq83TZ3OLiF8ft9CAHYyz881Vk2KfVRd/s360/20230928%20-%20%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%B0%8D%E6%B2%96%E5%8C%AF%E7%8E%87%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="266" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh3Cz6C7pqFVwRO6o8a-DloVEvMiKrSJWjjTon-8PtUfcHcqGXpwhc_YjbsejsscRpEMNvWMb-4MzqqpA_DNzg1jxbwUJqyn6pCrIQWvBDLMqKBUW9mWUUdd9ZcOkwCORl5-w9ZLLo35l4N4TBvjasMPWQIw9Txq83TZ3OLiF8ft9CAHYyz881Vk2KfVRd/w295-h400/20230928%20-%20%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%B0%8D%E6%B2%96%E5%8C%AF%E7%8E%87%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-1.jpg" width="295" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們即時可以看到英鎊的幾種外匯工具:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">外匯:就是換匯,將英鎊與其他貨幣兌換。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">期貨(Futures):產品代號6B,最常見的外匯遠期合約,底層證券是英鎊對美元,有不同的到期日選擇,一張期貨合約價值62500英鎊,。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">期貨(M6B):產品代號M6B,較小型的外匯遠期合約,底層證券也是英鎊對美元,合約價值比6B期貨合約低,一張小型英鎊期貨合約價值6250英鎊。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">期貨(MP):產品代號MP,其實和6B期貨是一樣的,只是在不同的交易所發行和交易。6B的交易所為芝加哥商品交易所CME,MP的交易所為美國洲際交易所ICEUS。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">期貨期權(Options):更複雜的外匯期權合約,有Call、Put、行使價與到期日選擇,無論Call或Put,投資者都可以選擇做付出期權金的買方、或收取期權金的賣方。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">差價合約(CFD):和期貨非常相似,但並沒有實際商品,主要是「買賣合約」。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">期貨(PJY):英鎊對日元的期貨,一張期貨合約價值125000英鎊。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">期貨(PSF):英鎊對瑞士法郎的期貨,一張期貨合約價值125000英鎊。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你看不懂上述工具的說明不要緊,炒賣外匯是一門專業,不是三言兩語就可以學會的,這裡暫時知道一下就好了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最簡單對沖貨幣(或投機貨幣)的工具,是期貨,接下來我會以日元來說明,如何在IB以交易日元期貨的方式,對沖日元上升的風險。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">如何交易日元期貨</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 假設你想借入日元買入美元,為期一年,現時IB日元的借貸利率為1.5%,美元的活期利率為4.83%,代表你可以借空手入白刃賺到一年3.33%的息差。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,日元兌美元的匯價波動每年等閒在16%以上,如果日元大升,年底兌回日元償還貸款時,將有很高匯率損失。這時,你會想到利用日元期貨去對沖日元升值的風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 日元期貨,一般指日元對美元的期貨,產品代號6J,在芝加哥商品交易所CME交易,一張合約價值1,250萬日元(約8.37萬美元)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 日元對美元還有一種小型期貨,代號J7,一張合約價值625萬日元(約4.18萬美元),算是低門檻的選擇。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">其他日元相關的期貨商品,常見的有歐元對日元期貨(RY)與澳元對日元期貨(AJ),合約價值分別為125,000歐元與200,000澳幣。另外還有英鎊對日元、加幣對日元、澳幣對日元、瑞士法郎對日元等等的期貨,只是交易量都很低,流動性較差。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 假設你在今年9月借入1,250萬日元轉為美元,可能用來做美元活存、美元定存或買美國國債,預計明年9月歸還,那麼同時買入一張明年9月到期的日元期貨,就屬於完全對沖。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在IB的Watch List中,輸入</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">jpy</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">,然後選擇</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">「期貨」。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN25wIMbq-RKUt9jpuMgCVbw6dokQik7A7v5kXB9MeYlrpoqRIP7ZN6sqn2PNNYkCnkLXQUqopDhCXQlxv-IjeIBs3Pk8UIFPYELmP3sEFZtuNvrvv_rNNvw8qgVe5vhgNZ729auQVyp1wEMoue18N8nFgkS_4c4FIBJy55VOvwffeMJUoNWgcMYik3Rmy/s265/20230928%20-%20%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%B0%8D%E6%B2%96%E5%8C%AF%E7%8E%87%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="182" data-original-width="265" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN25wIMbq-RKUt9jpuMgCVbw6dokQik7A7v5kXB9MeYlrpoqRIP7ZN6sqn2PNNYkCnkLXQUqopDhCXQlxv-IjeIBs3Pk8UIFPYELmP3sEFZtuNvrvv_rNNvw8qgVe5vhgNZ729auQVyp1wEMoue18N8nFgkS_4c4FIBJy55VOvwffeMJUoNWgcMYik3Rmy/w400-h275/20230928%20-%20%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%B0%8D%E6%B2%96%E5%8C%AF%E7%8E%87%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 選擇到期月202409,即可調出JPY Sep16’24 @CME這張期貨合約,合約代號是6JU4。你亦可直接輸入6JU4,免卻以上選擇步驟。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigX4GCPnjGYL41VbsxzdHFG3kHBgf7I-jBcAGynjaBB2ugYhuSCrYOpWcMaN5pdtRvy0n3aHKUFHkw8Rut4UHLaf_1mzHoD-PwCVjMRSbclkxBxomjZ1rWagAXndjnulZxJpuo_5WjyZEtsr0sn6jCbOiWLO7vVrmaRvHF4nNqE2aVFW99WopuKzu2HF7m/s886/20230928%20-%20%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%B0%8D%E6%B2%96%E5%8C%AF%E7%8E%87%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="886" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigX4GCPnjGYL41VbsxzdHFG3kHBgf7I-jBcAGynjaBB2ugYhuSCrYOpWcMaN5pdtRvy0n3aHKUFHkw8Rut4UHLaf_1mzHoD-PwCVjMRSbclkxBxomjZ1rWagAXndjnulZxJpuo_5WjyZEtsr0sn6jCbOiWLO7vVrmaRvHF4nNqE2aVFW99WopuKzu2HF7m/w400-h223/20230928%20-%20%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%B0%8D%E6%B2%96%E5%8C%AF%E7%8E%87%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 截至2023年9月28日,這檔日元期貨的最後成交價為0.00708點,買入一張,價值就是88,500美元(0.00708 * 12,500,000),但只需付出初始保證金約7,000多美元,維持保證金最低更可至3,000美元,槓桿達到29倍!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">由於日元對美元的匯率差,這張期貨合約的交易數值很小,每變動0.00005點,一張日元期貨合約(1250萬日元)的變動價值就是625美元。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">完美情況下,這張期貨合約的跳動,與1250萬日元對美元現貨的跳動是完全同步的,意思是,日元升,合約價值升,日元跌,合約價值跌。當你借入日元而日元升值引致匯率損失,就可以從這張合約中賺回來,但相反如果日元貶值,你也會因為合約的虧損而不能賺到匯率。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 期貨合約的最後成交價0.00708,代表匯價為141.24(1 / 0.00708),也就是你鎖定的交易匯價。同時,日元對美元的即期匯率約149.4,中間相差的匯價點數8.16,就是你要付出的成本。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 也就是說,你的對沖成本大約是5.78%(8.16 / 141.24),未計投資期貨的手續費。3.33%的IB活期存款息差,明顯並不夠彌補成本,即使購買現時收益率達5.5%的一年期美債,息差也只有4%,也不夠彌補,除非你額外負上信用風險去投資更高收益率的美元產品。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這就是我一開始的意思,散戶是不大可能做到完全避開匯率風險去賺取息差的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 當然,如果你已持有外匯資產,怕匯率浮動太高而致匯損太大,是可以用這個方法對沖。而且大多數時間,你不一定要完全對沖,可以是部份金額對沖,或部份時間對沖。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我的看法</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 無論股市對沖還是外匯對沖,我都很少提及,不是不懂,而是我不鼓勵一般人隨隨便便去做。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對沖,是易學難精的策略,一般人很容易了解其中的原理,但真的去做,往往很難去拿捏。理論成立,並不代表現實就會成功,因為理論成立就鼓勵別人去做,是很不負責任的做法。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們經常聽到甚麼甚麼企業,因為對沖匯率失誤而招致巨大損失,擁有獨立專業財務部門的大型企業尚且如此,更何況一般投資者?可能我見識少吧,至現時為止,我還沒見過一個散戶可以成功地長期做對沖呢。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 較遠期的對沖(例如超過一年),流通性通常很低,這使對沖策略往往比較適合短期。當你非常害怕的時候,適量的對沖也許可以減低一點心理壓力,但是,短期對沖同時很容易淪為投機,這是人性使然。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我一向認為,投資之道,七分心態,三分技術。想端正心態,處變不驚,投資策略和投資產品,應該是愈簡單愈好。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 由於對沖有很高成本,很少人是完全對沖的,甚麼時候對沖、對沖多少比例、長期對沖還是分段對沖等等,這些都成為需要深思熟慮的事,這就令投資的複雜性大大提高。當我們不斷地尋求和研究對沖策略,不斷去追求與計算,反而容易失去投資初衷,心態上也很難保持平衡冷靜,這亦是人性使然。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 而且,想要規避匯率風險,不一定需要對沖。如果你持有的是強勢外幣或將來的生活貨幣(本幣),並長期投資,其實已規避了部份匯率風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一個國家如果能長期保持國力,其幣值的最大匯率損失,就會有一個限度,這就是所謂強勢外幣,美元是其中之一。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 舉個例子,我住在台灣,參考過去一段時期,台幣兌換美元的匯率大約在27.5-33之間,也就是20%左右的波動,那就是極端狀況下美元可能的最大匯率損失。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後,我投資到期收益率6%的20年期某家美國公司債券,20年後,如果公司沒有倒閉,我可以獲得總共120%的利息(假設利息沒有再投入),屆時將美元換回台幣,就算遭遇到最大的匯率損失20%,依然可以得到100%的利息。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以資產配置的方式,也可以規避部份匯率風險,例如歐元與黃金,這兩者皆與美元指數呈負相關。在資產組合中加入一點歐元資產或買一點黃金,也可以有效平衡匯率風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最後,如果你仍要做期貨,請務必控制好風險,並且不要過度槓桿。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">註:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">以上沒有任何投資建議成份。投資是個人行為,敬請自行研究並自負盈虧與責任。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></div>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-11692749176155284402023-10-22T20:00:00.003+08:002023-11-02T11:47:57.381+08:00預測利率變化?<p> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以下節錄自10月初發表在Patreon上的文章,現在仍有參考價值,留意數字已過時。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-a50c1219-7fff-5895-e9b0-e8a8b51cdab0"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 執筆時,美國20年國債率是5.16%,為2007年以來的新高,前幾天又有會員來問是否值得鎖定這一個回報率去獲取穩定的現金流。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我的答覆是,只有神才可能準確預測現在是否處於息率頂部,現金流投資,應視乎個人對收益率的需求。不意外地,此答案受到了反擊,他認為現金流投資者在買入債券等保本產品的時候仍然需要Time the market,因為一年半前低息環境買入和現在買入,所面對的風險和回報已經截然不同。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 嗯,他是對的。事情是這樣的,如果你有信心又有能力準確去Time the Market,當然要Time,不但要Time,還要全Time,押上全部身家去Time,借盡錢加大槓桿地Time,不必來問我。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">事實就是,大量投資人從去年開始就跟著市場風向看好美國今年會降息,買入了大量TLT這類長年期國債ETF,以為可以躺著穩賺,今天下場如何,大家心中有數。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">散戶多數都眼高手低,以為Time the Market是很容易的事,我自己也是散戶之一,與其他人的唯一分別可能只是我會承認這一點,所以你問我,我肯定令你失望,明白了嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">好吧,我現在預測,FED最多只會加一次息或不再加息,聯邦基金目標利率區間就在5%-5.75%之間維持一段長時期,明年第三或第四季緩慢降息,但已回不去一年半前的低息環境。之後一段長時期,聯邦基礎利率大概率都會維持在3%以上。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">但這又如何?有用嗎?別說以上只是猜想,就算真的預測準確,那也只是影響短期利率,並不代表長年期債券息率的走勢。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">因為美債實在有太多變數,包括市場避險、美元走勢、油價波動、中國因素,還有哈馬斯突襲以色列發動戰爭、眾議院議長突然被罷免這類黑天鵝事件……金融市場的變化,也不總是直接與事件的發生相匹配,市場氣氛、人們的情感和即時反應起著最關鍵作用。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">合理推測,未來數年,全球不穩定因素會愈來愈多,過去十幾年不斷下降的利率或超低利率環境大概率已一去不返,利率很可能長時間高企,金融市場不再是容易獲得貸款的環境,這意味著投資者需要重新考慮他們的投資組合和策略。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">高息也許最終會在通脹得到控制後回調,你的預測也許最終是正確的,但即便如此,過程中市場的波幅卻不是理性的,利率可以先大幅飆升然後才下跌,一般人是否真的有需要去負擔這種風險?又是否具備足夠的心理質素撐過去?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">長年期國債的走勢</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我在</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">《</span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">破障除迷思:投資長債一定賺?</span></a><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》一文中,分享過長年期公司債的利率已將降息效應提前實現了,聰明的你們應該知道,我文中指的不止是長年期公司債,也是指長年期國債。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 下圖是10年期美國國債收益率相對聯邦基金利率(Federal Funds Rate)息差的20年的走勢圖:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEvki14ryiiC_mwZhEjdnApwEG4dIYKc6eG9ba4Z_iFY7c9ge10kGmHS5YtcUVu0bViwYVln6PKEmgxbf-vMRF4zmKUuTEYzxqcO6hu2Quu0wFvzZUOu6dj6Bzq5zgg4omeDAJdiFMkXaAqNEWymjA-Ey1KMj3jzvi5f32LwwOqPvdec8EykR85cgIJZbO/s1662/20231011%20-%20%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E8%AE%8A%E5%8C%96%EF%BC%9F-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="1662" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEvki14ryiiC_mwZhEjdnApwEG4dIYKc6eG9ba4Z_iFY7c9ge10kGmHS5YtcUVu0bViwYVln6PKEmgxbf-vMRF4zmKUuTEYzxqcO6hu2Quu0wFvzZUOu6dj6Bzq5zgg4omeDAJdiFMkXaAqNEWymjA-Ey1KMj3jzvi5f32LwwOqPvdec8EykR85cgIJZbO/w400-h178/20231011%20-%20%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E8%AE%8A%E5%8C%96%EF%BC%9F-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 從上圖可以看到,在過去20年,絕大部份時間10年期國債收益率都是高於聯邦基金利率,偶爾低於聯邦基金利率,也很快補回缺口。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">這一刻,10年期國債收益率明顯遠低於聯邦基金利率,並不是正常狀況,所以正在極速補回,這也導致現時聯邦基金利率不變,長年期國債利率有上升的狀況。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">另一個因素是債息倒掛。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">債息倒掛也不是一個正常現象,遲早都會修正過來。要修正債息倒掛,可以是短息下降、或長息上升、或兩者同時出現。聯邦基金利率主導了短息,但即使開始減息,聯邦基金利率最多也只是緩慢下降,債息倒掛修正的壓力就抑制了長期息率的下跌。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不過,如果出現了經濟衰退,避險情緒又會令情況大為不同,屆時將更加混亂。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">利率的不穩定因素</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 美國國債雖被視為無風險資產,但不代表不受市場多種因素和情緒影響,尤其是長年期的,這裡隨便舉一些風險因素:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">市場對美債的疑慮:美國國債孳息率一向被定義為無風險利率,過往事實也確是如此。但是,近期市場正在質疑這個宗教。隨著惠譽下調美國債信評等,投資者開始對美債的風險開始感到擔憂,進而懷疑美國國債風險溢價的水平。不管你認為這種憂慮是多麼無稽,事實就是這樣。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">通脹的反撲:很多因素都可能引致通脹的反撲,例如地緣政治就是最難預測的變數之一。其中油價對通脹影響極大,政治和戰爭又與能源價格息息相關,皆令通脹的不確定性增加。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">政府債務的增加:美國政府債務負擔的上升正成為越來越令人擔憂的問題,美國政府在今年第3季透過出售債券籌集了超過1兆美元,並持續到 2024 年擴大規模。政府借貸增加意味著債券市場上的債券供應增加,導致債券價格下降,債券利率就有可能高於投資人的預期。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">外國減少持有美債:典型的例子是經濟正不斷在爆雷的中國,面臨著中美利率差擴大導致的人民幣匯率疲軟。中國必然只能減美債換美元再沽美元,以避免人民幣匯率過度波動。同時,日本政府也一直在拋售美債來支撐疲軟的日圓。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 留意,我不是在反對投資長債,我仍是在提醒風險,提醒那些想一次過將所有資金All-in 20年國債鎖定息率,然後覺得安枕無憂的人。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這是缺乏投資經驗的人的想法,只要有一點投資經驗,你就知道只要一天有投資,就一天不會安枕無憂!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 長線投資,不代表要一次過像賭博那樣</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">「晒</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">冷</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">」,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">投資是一個持續的、細水長流的過程,沒得懶的。如果你腦中出現可以安心投資、一勞永逸的念頭,代表你應該是忽視了一些重要的東西。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 例如,你忽視了20年長期債券的價格波動通常很高,一般人很可能無法承擔這種長達20年的風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們看回歷史,事實上在90年代之前以及90年代大部分時間裡,10 年期美國國債的收益率都在 5% 以上,執筆之時,10年期美國國債收益率是4.62%,相對當年一點也不高。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRDb2uQl-q5ePfAO-ipxHqRAlmu-YdICSXfz9rC5knDgjbzw4Y803KBeLmxadTOOjnO77jz-fKpnfl2Cbi6s2TwTM4cTwCJ5csi-USsTpF1TuWdxLT0_3Wvrle1LBMTAR-yNrV_Q-zVRQSWfkfQ-bC1BKbIDAMLYxklGjdUFw2cTPzFGBMTirHqzngQIzn/s1271/20231011%20-%20%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E8%AE%8A%E5%8C%96%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="602" data-original-width="1271" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRDb2uQl-q5ePfAO-ipxHqRAlmu-YdICSXfz9rC5knDgjbzw4Y803KBeLmxadTOOjnO77jz-fKpnfl2Cbi6s2TwTM4cTwCJ5csi-USsTpF1TuWdxLT0_3Wvrle1LBMTAR-yNrV_Q-zVRQSWfkfQ-bC1BKbIDAMLYxklGjdUFw2cTPzFGBMTirHqzngQIzn/w400-h190/20231011%20-%20%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E8%AE%8A%E5%8C%96%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我們之所以覺得現在利率高,是由於聯儲局在經歷2008年金融海嘯後,實施量化寬鬆(QE)增加流動性,在2008-2014、2020-2022 年間購買了數兆美元的債券來助長需求和刺激經濟,造成2008-2020年長期維持低利率,直到 2022 年才開始透過被動的方式(到期後不再購買)縮減資產負債表(量化緊縮,QT)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">現在QT行動只是一個開始,可能5%利率範圍在未來才是新常態,投資者可能需要適應這個新常態。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你說你抱持著信念,就是要鎖定現在20年長債YTM 5%回報,不管以後常態如何。那麼也許可以思考一下,這20年間,你的Current Yield是多少?你有沒有犧牲了20年的現金流?20載後,又是否一定可以收回本金?始終這個世界沒有百分百肯定的事。如果超長期完全失去投資的靈活度和自主性,這表面上不錯的5%回報又是否合理?你真的能忍受價格的20年波動?……</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">現金流投資者的做法</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 長期跟進我投資組合文章的會員應該會發現,在利率不斷下降和零息時代,我買入的債券大多是非投資級別債券,且大多都是B級公司債,以不同年期來守住風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 去年年初加息週期開始,新投資的債券級別轉為BA級以上,然後隨著FED的加息進程,新加入的債券也逐漸提升至BAA級和A級。當聯邦基金息率加至5%左右的時候,我終於開始持有美國國債。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為不同的利率時期,市場都有不同的風險以及應對手法。低利率年代,企業容易借錢,高負債公司較易生存,債券回報率雖低,但我們也可以使用槓桿去增加回報;利率高的年代,企業的借貸成本高,高負債公司面對的挑戰也大,低級別債券的風險隨之升高,槓桿也不再適用。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 只要我們的債券投資策略是採用債券梯的邏輯,隨著低級別的債券逐漸到期,再依據時間分批照當時的利率環境買進,這樣的設計就規避了利率風險。也就是說,無論我們如何預測利率走向,也不會有太大影響。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 利率和股價的變動,大多數人都是猜不到的,那就像彈珠台上彈珠的蹤跡一樣難以預測。當然你可以隨意猜測,但如果想在複雜的投資遊戲中生存,絕對不能只依靠猜測,是需要一套堅實的策略和投資邏輯。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資是細水長流的遊戲,十上十落的打法、一注獨贏的傾向、一勞永逸的想法,是大多數人投資失敗的源頭,那是賭博,不是策略。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> ******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; 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font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-41694339802634972422023-10-06T20:00:00.004+08:002023-10-06T20:00:00.143+08:00 【案例分享】如何避開投資陷阱<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以下問題來自一位高級會員的私訊,原文照錄,只稍以書面文潤飾,並隱去實際金額以保障個人私隱:</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-91b0fc5c-7fff-08bb-7a56-4763757a3637"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我建倉應該是從今年2月開始,至5月完成,大約分散60% 債券,25% ETD,15% REITs,基本上已滿倉但沒有用槓桿,這組合波幅令我持倉非常舒服,再一次感謝風兄的分享。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我的組合目標回報9%。但暫時5個月回報大約2.5%,有點不像預期。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我覺得有幾個可能性,但不肯定,所以想向你請教。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我翻查紀錄,未實現盈利我加減後是負數,主因是LUMN這檔債券拖累。還是因為我開倉還未滿一年,數字都不能作準?我再去檢查報表,股息我知道是REITs那類型的派發,應計利息或利息是債息,但是仍未找到原因。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我現在感覺是舒服的,相比以前炒賣股票,但我暫時這個回報,可能定期與國債已可以做到。因為我年底會有新資金,我有很高機會是用來分段買債,所以想了解更多。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我知道投資不應該問這些數字的東西,我純粹是想不明白投資不達預期的原因,所以想風兄幫忙拆解我的問題。但怎樣都好,多謝風兄鼓勵我進入這個投資模式!」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 首先澄清一點技術上的數字定義,股息由股票類資產派發,利息由債券類資產派發,這點沒錯。但唯有ETD,本質上雖屬於債券也不用繳30%股息稅,卻由於在股票市場上買賣,IB報表是將ETD派出的利息歸到了股息和應計股息那邊,而不是利息那邊。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 好,說回這位會員的問題。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我覺得這位會員的問題,比較是心態上出現偏差,多於數字上的計算。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 第一件事,我曾無數次強調現金流投資的第一要義,是現金流流入的穩定性和持續性,並非資產本身價格的波動。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們甚麼時候才去留意資產價格?就是懷疑該資產出現了不能再帶來穩定現金流的危險的時候,並不是價格大跌的時候。雖然,價格大跌經常會出現在現金流出現危機後,但兩者在本質上還是不同的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 價格跌,可以有很多原因,可以是相關企業真的出了問題,也可以純是因為一則謠言,或市場氣氛不佳。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這位會員的組合目標回報是9%,他指的到底是現金流相對本金的回報,還是連未實現盈利/虧損在內的所謂「總回報」?後者,一定會因資產價格的升跌而有變動。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我不是說總回報不重要,因為資產價格背後也時常代表一些意義,完全不看可能會遺漏了點甚麼東西。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但前提是,我們必須知道,即使在風平浪靜的時候,資產價格也是分分鐘在浮動,作為現金流投資者,對價格太過上心,時時都在觀測計算總回報,沒有意義之餘,更是個非常壞的習慣,是「學壞手勢」。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 第二件事,這位會員對於何謂「風險」,似乎尚未完全明白。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 風險的其中一個表現,是不能達到目標的可能性——風險愈高,達到目標的機會愈低。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我曾說過多次,收益率超過5%的資產,就一定有風險,這位會員的組合目標9%回報,我相信這是他選擇LUMN這種風險性債券的原因。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,大家知道每年9%回報事實上有多難嗎?大家知道S&P指數2000年至今的年化回報才多高嗎?——假設不扣股息稅,股息再投入,S&P指數2000年至今的年化回報率也只有6.52%!</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzU4mem_lt_hjE-2toJQQCCf-I47Zbc9zjkMKVoMpX2jrMHNQamrE2kz-SRcYZvBT4A7ndge1AyOdYo84L2sNUsciW7KJJunUMXid4sL9UKj0w2whmPc-JjcnPyXILXIXgyQCIoQLLgfWvjZ_9FjK1NkNyM9hjAap51wPry7DhHneJJR0baPAyWtaIFh8G/s747/20230925%20-%20%E3%80%90%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E4%BA%AB%E3%80%91%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%81%BF%E9%96%8B%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1%EF%BC%9F.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="747" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzU4mem_lt_hjE-2toJQQCCf-I47Zbc9zjkMKVoMpX2jrMHNQamrE2kz-SRcYZvBT4A7ndge1AyOdYo84L2sNUsciW7KJJunUMXid4sL9UKj0w2whmPc-JjcnPyXILXIXgyQCIoQLLgfWvjZ_9FjK1NkNyM9hjAap51wPry7DhHneJJR0baPAyWtaIFh8G/w400-h366/20230925%20-%20%E3%80%90%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E4%BA%AB%E3%80%91%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%81%BF%E9%96%8B%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1%EF%BC%9F.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 絕大部份股票投資人,長期年化回報都追不上S&P指數,更何況9%。這種程度的回報率,這位會員竟要求第1年的總回報一定要達到,然後每年都必須達到,合理嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 第三件事,這位會員好像也忘記了「學習曲線」這件事。我們尋求最低風險、最高回報,除了時間因素外,個人能力也有極大關係。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 做任何事都有一個學習過程,這位會員不是現金流老手,就有一個交學費的過程,然後慢慢進步。我知道該會員之前炒股票,交了很多學費,但為何覺得轉為現金流投資,可以沒有這個過程,一下子就可以達到自己的最終目標呢?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 何況,他都還沒有虧損,至現在還有6%的年化回報率,也就是連學費都沒交呢,根本就是賺到了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這種急於求成的心態,大概是因為該會員是一位做生意的能手,營商能力非常強,過往在商業方面可以得到相當迅速的回報,可能成為他在投資方面的基準。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這種因其他方面的經驗而帶來的期望失衡,是可以理解的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 另外一種期望失衡,才是最糟糕的,案例是那些JPEX的受害者。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有會員想我聊一聊JPEX這事,JPEX事件在香港很轟動,還是一個流量密碼,幾乎沒有香港KOL不去聊上一嘴的。但也正因為太熱火了,人人都很清楚發生甚麼事,幾乎所有角度、甚麼內情都有人分析過,我找不到特別角度去分享,自己又不是一個追求流量的人,所以一直不去聊。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事件還在不斷發展中,那些「死雞撐飯蓋」的KOL、堅持相信JPEX的狂熱者、一天一聲明與證監及港警的單挑、以及所謂DAO分紅計劃的二次詐騙,都是大大粒的「花生」,我們這些局外人就坐定定看戲好了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一般人不明白的是,為何JPEX受害者會蠢到這種地步?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 即使已有大量證據揭露這就是一個龐氏騙局,仍是有人選擇繼續相信。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一般我們會說,那是因為他們貪心,被貪慾蒙蔽了心智。當人投入了大量金錢後,即使騙局被揭穿,基於人類的自我保護機制,首先的反應也是拒絕相信,從而被二次詐騙。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那麼為何他們會被貪慾蒙蔽了心智?也許,是因為幾乎所有受害人都擁有「藍精靈」的特質。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 何謂「藍精靈」特質?類似於利益薰心。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有些人以為,「黃雨傘」和「藍精靈」的分別,在於後者凡事都撐政權。其實不是的,凡事皆撐政權、凡事皆為政權洗白的那些人,是「小粉紅」,不是「藍精靈」。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 黃雨傘和藍精靈的分別,不在於前者會罵政府,後者不罵。當後者覺得政府動了自己的利益,在安全情況下,也一樣會罵的,包括罵林鄭和李家超。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 黃雨傘和藍精靈的主要分別,在於前者會追求一些後者眼中虛無漂渺、無關利益的價值,例如民主、自由、公義、道德、守信等等。後者則凡事以利益為主軸,而且是只限己身的利益。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 坦白說,為人現實、著重利益,是幾乎所有香港人的品質,這是香港多年的環境和文化所造成的。黃雨傘的特質,是除了生活上的利益,通常還會注重一些價值觀上的東西,體現在關心公眾事務、政治體制或公義道德上。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 藍精靈的特質,則是認為世界所有事情都是圍繞自身利益,所以他們不會明白怎麼可能有人肯犧牲自身利益,寧願坐牢也要追求那些看不到、捉不著的東西?那些又不能當飯吃!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 所以他們一口咬定,一定有外國勢力,黃雨傘一定是收了錢做事。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 黃雨傘也不是沒有缺點的,如果一昧追求理想,很容易忽視了現實的殘酷。追求理想的人多數性格帶有一點浪漫、敏感的特性,對人性有太多的幻想,反而容易缺乏彈性,一旦期望不符預期,很容易灰心沮喪。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 藍精靈的缺陷則是,由於太注重自身利益,目光只集中在眼前的一畝三分地,代表性名言是「我的訴求就是想上班!」,令眼界狹隘,導致判斷失衡。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 例如,輕易相信那超過20%的回報率。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> JPEX的手段之一,在於鋪天蓋地的宣傳。包括出名KOL的推介、港鐵巴士街道上的廣告、電視內的代言人,加上有意識地與日本交易所集團JPX、國際發卡組織VISA、中國上市公司等拉上關係,營造一個國際大型金融機構的形象。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這樣,大家就不會去主動Google一下,這些是不是誤導。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> JPEX的手段之二,是所謂「環型交易套利」。為讓你相信躺著就可以贏錢, JPEX用上最熱門、最看上去高大上的詞語,例如「人工智能交易」、「日本東京大學精算學系」、「澳大利亞團隊」、「全天侯監控」、「全球交易所」等等,去形容一種很簡單的差價套利行為。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5o5PBVf7XllVpbs4G4gMOliEkEO_x0HD-RlPGmFaQxFoeT-CMKZvC_jQHp0pRhkENpoADG1zWBCTakeFp0LgmtUC-RV6-Tv45lYJxf9bKK79ryn-Pucxky6-Rh2WK-HQGilYl_HPVzjnVaDFQVPCDzO5mCrL-1O2yKXcdTfxmeNC36d7mH_Df-leLpeqt/s1095/20230925%20-%20%E3%80%90%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E4%BA%AB%E3%80%91%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%81%BF%E9%96%8B%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="1095" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5o5PBVf7XllVpbs4G4gMOliEkEO_x0HD-RlPGmFaQxFoeT-CMKZvC_jQHp0pRhkENpoADG1zWBCTakeFp0LgmtUC-RV6-Tv45lYJxf9bKK79ryn-Pucxky6-Rh2WK-HQGilYl_HPVzjnVaDFQVPCDzO5mCrL-1O2yKXcdTfxmeNC36d7mH_Df-leLpeqt/w400-h224/20230925%20-%20%E3%80%90%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E4%BA%AB%E3%80%91%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%81%BF%E9%96%8B%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這樣,大家就不會去深究,這種差價套利是否真的可以成立?真的有那麼好賺?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不勞而獲,人人都想要,但現實,不是這樣運行的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 別人和你說,現在獲得20%的回報率很容易,只要抓住這個機會就行了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 他還說,很多人已經這樣踏上了財富自由的道路,機會不等人,你再不上車就來不及了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 說的那個人很出名,甚至是你偶像。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你很想相信他的話,因為太吸引人了!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那又怎樣?So What?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你有沒有先掂量一下自己?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你是誰?你擁有甚麼?你憑甚麼可以不努力就有收獲?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我在《</span><a href="http://laxinvest.blogspot.com/2023/02/blog-post.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">一命二運三風水</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》這篇文章中分享過,除了極少數人命中注定運數大起大落外,大多數人基礎的運數是很恒定的。有些人一出生有70分基礎運數,就算在大運期最多也就增加到80分;另一些人出生有90分基礎運數,就算在逆運期最多也就減至80分。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 所以,有些人一出生的起點,就是你的終點。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你呢?多年來,你只能靠努力上班賺薪水勉強過活,與面朝黃土背朝天的農民沒任何區別,為何你會覺得可以突然不用付出成本,就可以得到收獲?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你說,你有孤注一擲的決心,有冒險的精神,有決斷的勇氣,所以值得獲得高收益。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對不起,那不是代價,那是賭性!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 代價,甚至不等於努力,你努力,但不能創造出和別人不一樣的價值,也是沒有回報的,何況你只有比屎還不如的賭性?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如何避免投資陷阱,很簡單,掂量一下自己。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我反對一些有錢理財、沒錢賭博的言論,這種言論鼓勵年輕人或窮人進行高風險投資,認為反正沒甚麼資產,損失了,可以再重來。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你相信,下場大概率是,你一直在RESET重來、一直在RESET重來,一直RESET到晚年,一無所有!</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (節錄自上月Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; 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vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-41582973041784102252023-09-21T20:00:00.003+08:002023-09-21T20:00:00.138+08:00 黃金的價值<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 時不時有會員詢問我對黃金的看法,坦白說,對不帶來任何現金流的資產,我興趣缺缺,既興趣不大,也就不會太深入去研究,不敢說有甚麼獨家心得。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-f73ee4a1-7fff-f21d-10b0-f22cf44e4a51"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,黃金又很特別,特別在於很多人有明顯認知上的偏差。這篇文章,不止是徇眾要求,也想聊聊關於黃金的幾項常見謬誤。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">黃金是避險資產?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最多人視為理所當然的是,黃金可以作為避險資產,是資金避風港。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 避險,通常指的是股市風險。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這是否事實,其實不必爭辯,我們就用歷史數據去說話,例如比較美股和黃金的相對走勢。我們用美股來做例子,是因為美股為全球最大的股市,美股不好,全球股市都不會好到那裡去。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這裡我們以SPDR黃金ETF (GLD),代表黃金指數,SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), 代表美股指數,下圖是兩者的10年走勢圖:</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO3vcSSZMrXKggNKW8gfs2azvEWAF3m_0Sq8w1LwcOvhV3ixliZYcgbT45YhyyFncGwkC8K-jDdeITPSWlDRcsFIqHbVcFbcJGVZLkbyWzQ25kBuQZiQCZCBsK-qbiPJczZCl3boAYBYLMQmRDj1MmPht7E3f3WXqZyhguEMUN9ZCjkfMEN78860lZ73Tg/s1015/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="1015" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO3vcSSZMrXKggNKW8gfs2azvEWAF3m_0Sq8w1LwcOvhV3ixliZYcgbT45YhyyFncGwkC8K-jDdeITPSWlDRcsFIqHbVcFbcJGVZLkbyWzQ25kBuQZiQCZCBsK-qbiPJczZCl3boAYBYLMQmRDj1MmPht7E3f3WXqZyhguEMUN9ZCjkfMEN78860lZ73Tg/w400-h250/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 近10年,SPY升幅有215.8%,GLD只有32.02%。這不重要,重要的是,從圖表來看,兩者沒有相抗的特性,相反,還有0.05的正相關性。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 0.05這數字,最多意味著兩者在價格變化上並不是很密切相關,但絕對不是負相關。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你覺得10年期太短,不能證明甚麼,那麼讓我們將時光倒流至2007-2009年的金融海嘯時期。那段時期,絕對稱得上是股市風險最高,最需要黃金作「避風港」的時候。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 下圖是2005至2011年GLD和SPY的走勢圖,藍線是黃金指數GLD,紅線是美股指數SPY:</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvDTPisH8Brf0X3-qTnceyRjzopRfR6A-VplfOyHgmUcc2aj8COlIH4KOBYmRRQb6YdTZ791Hdsh6baoe8N0rqtZOTPJn9LHCewMSb0GHWibEWlDr0f0BOHdEoK_p9GzzhllFTnMeqIAudHn2ZERX6DTwuUOL2n2Q1ZHhuDIWzl3dwfwqvFWZDs_k5nFix/s627/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="611" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvDTPisH8Brf0X3-qTnceyRjzopRfR6A-VplfOyHgmUcc2aj8COlIH4KOBYmRRQb6YdTZ791Hdsh6baoe8N0rqtZOTPJn9LHCewMSb0GHWibEWlDr0f0BOHdEoK_p9GzzhllFTnMeqIAudHn2ZERX6DTwuUOL2n2Q1ZHhuDIWzl3dwfwqvFWZDs_k5nFix/w390-h400/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-2.jpg" width="390" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這段時期,GLD確是跑贏了SPY。S&P指數在 2007 年 10 月見頂後,至 2008 年2-3月大約下跌 了300 點,同時期黃金維持升幅,走勢與股市相反,似乎真的證明了黃金有「避險」作用。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 可是很快,當SPY反彈了一點又繼續下跌,而且跌幅愈來愈高時,黃金同樣在2008年2月見到了頂位,然後竟與股市同步大幅下跌,跌幅同樣巨大。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 2008年2月至10月,是股市下跌最多、最恐慌的時間,但黃金的走勢和股市是相同的,並不存在所謂「避風港」作用。最終,黃金先於股市三四個月見底開始上漲,然後兩者一起上漲。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 10多年後,2020年1-3月全球出現疫情大恐慌,美股再度大跌,但很快隨後又迎來3-8月報復性大反彈。這段期間,黃金再度展現了與股市同步上落的特性,此處不贅,大家可以自己找圖來看看。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 當你了解這些歷史,就會明白,股市跌,黃金不一定會升,相反亦然,兩者大多數時候甚至是同向的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你還相信黃金是市場波動的避風港嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 可是,每一次,是每一次,當市場出現波動時,主流媒體都會不斷強調這種荒謬的說法——他們要不是對市場歷史一無所知,就是存心欺騙大眾。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有人會說,每次股市突然大跌,金價似乎都有所反應呀。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對,但那是主流媒體截取很短的日子給你看,是典型的斷章取義。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 股市初跌時,金價可能有所反應,你因為這樣而跟隨「避險」,大概率將在最高位追入,成為韭菜——隨著股市的進一步下跌,金價很可能轉而跟隨下跌,事實上你根本避不了險。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 金價的即時反應,緣於資金輪動。我們必須知道,在黃金交易市場混飯吃的,絕大多數不是避險投資者而是想賺價差的投機者,他們甚至與股市投機者可能是同一班人,這班人,才是黃金價格主導者。當市場進一步恐慌,他們可能離場或做空,導致金價的下跌。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 黃金價格,是由市場情緒推動的,黃金是非常投機性和波幅大的投資工具,不是甚麼資金避風港!</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">黃金可以抗通脹?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 很多人認為,黃金是抗通脹資產,又是真的嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 表面上,黃金好像確有長期上漲的趨勢(雖然近10年總共只升了32.02%),但事實上,基於貨幣貶值的特性,幾乎所有商品和資產,超長期來看都有上漲的趨勢,包括股票、房地產、能源、糧食、廁紙......</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 是不是廣義來說,除了電器和3C產品,所有商品都可以抗通脹?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不是的,抗通脹的定義,不是指長期趨勢,而是能否與通脹同步上落。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們還是來看看歷史。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 1980至2000年,已發展國家每年通脹平均大約5%,並在1980-1983年維持在10%或以上。黃金,則由1979年約800美元水平,一直下跌至2000 年約300美元,20年間貶值了60%。想用黃金來抗通脹的投資者,怕是要非常失望了。</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWAuPFYLzfei1Bz4sJcb0YE--4X5pyqV7Lx02oDtpytOzsfTFwqKSERI-rj7U_rlI3tYxl7fn1de2-QrgZAL9kDWnvWbO9qB_DE2dqGqV6SMFQpNy27WVq1fj4qgvMr4G7bLm6gvHv3jPUTW6vkPgixL6j6mNFFTvCBapzXd3pKIkLE_gsJbd4Ls_MWvnV/s491/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="381" data-original-width="491" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWAuPFYLzfei1Bz4sJcb0YE--4X5pyqV7Lx02oDtpytOzsfTFwqKSERI-rj7U_rlI3tYxl7fn1de2-QrgZAL9kDWnvWbO9qB_DE2dqGqV6SMFQpNy27WVq1fj4qgvMr4G7bLm6gvHv3jPUTW6vkPgixL6j6mNFFTvCBapzXd3pKIkLE_gsJbd4Ls_MWvnV/w400-h310/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 2008至2015年,美國實施了三次量寬措施,造成資金大泛濫。但從2011年7月至2015年12月正式啟動加息周期前的4年間,黃金價格由高位1900美元下跌到接近1000美元水平,跌幅接近50%。想用黃金來抗通脹的投資者,怕是要再度非常失望了。</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_nRmXm5ID3tKfl2UsdpJM8MA6BaqaLjG1eDSKY1_hgvTM7_vvwkpsHRKIWGSJ0hzE5ynPEswtskdwbrbwxc1a4WtobZwpKXWNo1_lrcUvPx61OvGviZgvqB4SJ4KDuBMObfZRIz2t7KnU49OhwOhCrfTXZOE8jl7-vFZ3_GfGJRQ2bPuy-L1fabIXpL3e/s477/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="477" height="321" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_nRmXm5ID3tKfl2UsdpJM8MA6BaqaLjG1eDSKY1_hgvTM7_vvwkpsHRKIWGSJ0hzE5ynPEswtskdwbrbwxc1a4WtobZwpKXWNo1_lrcUvPx61OvGviZgvqB4SJ4KDuBMObfZRIz2t7KnU49OhwOhCrfTXZOE8jl7-vFZ3_GfGJRQ2bPuy-L1fabIXpL3e/w400-h321/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 過去兩年,由俄烏戰爭和地緣政治帶來的全球高通脹,從2022年一直持續到今天,黃金價格卻只有波幅沒有升幅。想用黃金來抗通脹的投資者,怕是要再度再度非常失望了。</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizf0S61lk2gG05CTEyWMtyiEfjEoEfEKXiaUhnmJlokVLKeFirbWFNokA4dU3xOWovo85weVhDtNq_BwI2YLvuvUCD7BfWPhX1eqpep1_S0Q08RX3OFkRah_VeKmdt13VfEYLFs5HuobC3v7XrhTGfetMcZi6y2LnU8hpKqQDD8v1LGn88I-ikp9FC81-n/s843/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-5.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="501" data-original-width="843" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizf0S61lk2gG05CTEyWMtyiEfjEoEfEKXiaUhnmJlokVLKeFirbWFNokA4dU3xOWovo85weVhDtNq_BwI2YLvuvUCD7BfWPhX1eqpep1_S0Q08RX3OFkRah_VeKmdt13VfEYLFs5HuobC3v7XrhTGfetMcZi6y2LnU8hpKqQDD8v1LGn88I-ikp9FC81-n/w400-h238/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-5.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 所以,黃金既不是資金避風港,又不能抗通脹,更無任何現金流。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 除了賺價差,黃金對投資者全無價值嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 也不是的,接下來我們來聊聊黃金真正的價值。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="-webkit-text-decoration-skip: none; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="-webkit-text-decoration-skip: none; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">分散美元匯率風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-3e405ca7-7fff-9abd-14fc-1a65e60ecc4e" style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 下圖是2000年至今美元指數與黃金期貨價格的相對趨勢圖:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtfvYpl1TMDOuofzgbMCzNg-V5lUDfjxNyfNe21LNqCkE768-pqoXBL65BXpMh3PSSzSIYO51jLt66b4GsHJiXho8EOTa3ET_5n9E7KVLfz46y7Foqkket2Fm4xy5P6O8hU2XDu_ZImRafccbxWeA---OUu3yDb7_X-Uij0uhOy6nxmFkHHXZibuC-eVM3/s1280/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-6.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="1280" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtfvYpl1TMDOuofzgbMCzNg-V5lUDfjxNyfNe21LNqCkE768-pqoXBL65BXpMh3PSSzSIYO51jLt66b4GsHJiXho8EOTa3ET_5n9E7KVLfz46y7Foqkket2Fm4xy5P6O8hU2XDu_ZImRafccbxWeA---OUu3yDb7_X-Uij0uhOy6nxmFkHHXZibuC-eVM3/w400-h213/20230823%20-%20%E9%BB%83%E9%87%91%E7%9A%84%E5%83%B9%E5%80%BC-6.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們可以看到,美元指數與金價大致呈反比,兩者是負相關的關係。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 原因之一,黃金以美元報價,當美元升值,對於其他貨幣國家來說黃金就變貴了,因為要用更多的貨幣換取美元,導致需求減少,金價減弱。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 原因之二,美元和黃金同屬國際儲備工具,具有一定替代關係,美元走強,會一定程度上減弱黃金需求,反之亦然。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 因此,黃金可以在一定程度上對沖美元匯率風險。就是說,如果美元不是你的本幣,但你持有大量美元或美元資產,適量地配置黃金,是可以減低美元一點走弱的風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 但是請留意,這裡的美元指數或美元走強/走弱,指的是美元相對於其他國家貨幣的強弱,與通脹是兩回事。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="-webkit-text-decoration-skip: none; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="-webkit-text-decoration-skip: none; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">黃金的避險作用</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 黃金是避險資產。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 咦,之前不是才說黃金「不是避險資產」嗎?怎麼現在又說黃金「是避險資產」?我是有思覺失調嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 不,我的意思是,黃金不是資金或股市避難所,但黃金,確是避險資產。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 只不過這裡的「險」,指的是極端性的風險,例如戰爭和大災難時期。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 在極端的戰爭和災難時期,貨幣大概率會失去正常的交易功能,可能是已經作廢,或遭遇到上千倍的通脹,和廢紙沒有兩樣,這時候的黃金,就是唯一可用來交換食物、保住自己性命的財產。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 有一點千萬要記住,可以讓你活下來的黃金,絕對、必須、一定是實金,而不是任何紙黃金,不是那些甚麼黃金ETF或黃金期貨之類的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 因為兵荒馬亂時,交易市場可能早已倒下了,ATM可能早被炸爛了,你甚至可能連網路也連不上,根本無法將紙黃金兌現。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 我們利用黃金來避險,購買的必須是實金,例如金條或金幣,然後藏在家裡牀板下,逃命時再帶著跑。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 不要以為戰爭距離你很遠,現在的中國,經濟和民生千瘡百孔,一旦崩潰,習近平孤注一擲,悍然以武力侵台的方式,務求多拉幾個墊背的陪他一起死,是完全符合他偏執狂的人設的!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 假如台海開戰,全球幾乎沒有國家可以置身事外。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="-webkit-text-decoration-skip: none; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">總結</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 不同時期,黃金與股市的走向會有多種變化,綜合起來看,黃金走勢與股市幾乎沒有關聯,或只有弱正向關聯。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 黃金,不是股市避險所,也不能抗通脹,但有分散匯率風險、躲避極端風險的功能。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 此外,如果你是技術派,利用黃金作為賺價差的工具,我沒有意見。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 但我更想說的是心態。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 很多時候,一些好像理所當然的觀點,主流媒體都在告訴你的東西,未必是正確的。但大部份謬誤,自己動手簡單查一查數據,很容易就能戳穿謊言。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 可惜的是,大部份散戶寧願被傳媒、專家、KOL忽悠,接受市場噪音的洗腦,也不願獨立思考,這是他們成為韭菜的主因之一。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 韭菜中的極致,是那些被JPEX宣傳洗腦的受害者。韭菜中極致的極致,是到現在還不肯面對現實的那班陳姓KOL忠實信徒,他們寧願接受JPEX的二次詐騙。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 我希望,我們大家都能獨立思考,擺脫韭菜的命運。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"></p><span><!--more--></span>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-86203862235245111212023-09-05T20:00:00.001+08:002023-09-05T20:00:00.143+08:00 別把投資當消費!<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我的Patreon有一篇文章《</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/87770999" style="text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">【債券評析】投資級別的浮息ETD</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》,介紹了好幾檔浮動息率的ETD與債券,有一位會員在底下留言,他的大意是,如果投資於某檔低於淨值的浮息CEF,由於「該基金尋求通過投資於可調整利率高級貸款和其他債務工具的投資組合來實現高水平的當期收入,至少 80% 的管理資產將由可調利率貸款組成」(大意),雖然要繳30%稅,但看起來比較安心。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-7a42560a-7fff-8f04-6854-19ae50a42e8c"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這位會員說的CEF,也許是Nuveen Floating Rate Income (JFR),也許是另一檔,那不重要,因為不管那是甚麼,我都不假思索地立即回復:「他們(指CEF)買甚麼,怎麼買,甚麼時候買,槓桿多少,不知道也控制不了,就是一個黑盒,怎麼會比較安心?就因他們會吹?投資,要自己掌握,千萬別太相信所謂專業,有能力就盡量避免假手於人。」<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 會員表示,資訊來自CEF Connect,可能是自己對Property/CasualtyInsurance 與 Major Banks的行業比較不安心,也因為自己最近一直在研究某行業公司財報,總是感覺不大懂,才有買CEF較安心的感受。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 今天就來聊聊這種常見的投資心理,更精確來說,是心理障礙。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">投資可以安心嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 首先,我不相信有太多人可以完全看懂企業財報,尤其是金融和保險這種行業,其複雜性是專業會計師也難以掌握的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 好,就算你看的是業務簡單的企業財報,其實大家都心知肚明,有多少散戶可以消費大量時間去研究財報?又有多少散戶有興趣深入研究那些枯燥的數字?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 好,就算你真的看懂了財報而且研究透徹,財報內的資訊,一定反映了全部的事實嗎?會不會有些東西,被一些人以財技隱藏了起來?或乾脆作假?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 坦白說,除非你就是那家公司的老闆或會計總監,否則幾乎沒有一個散戶可以對一家企業了解透徹的,何況你要研究的可不止一家企業,你的組合可能包括了數十家公司。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 大部份時候,我們投資都是靠估計、預測,說白了就是靠「猜」,以有限的資訊、有限的時間、有限的認知,去猜公司將來的營運、未來的狀況。但事實是,企業的未來,公司老闆自己也是在猜,大家的分別只是猜中的概率不同而已。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資公司債券和公司股票有很大分別,分別在於,前者在猜公司會否在未來一段時間內違約倒閉,後者在猜公司未來在一段時間內的成長率;前者猜中的難度低一些,後者猜中的難度非常高;前者只需要對公司大致了解,後者很需要對公司深入研究。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有人說,對公司研究得深,有助提高勝率——這在理論上沒錯。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是記住,這是理論。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 只要我們有一點點實戰經驗,都會知道我們如何深入研究一家公司,也有一個極限。這源於80/20規則——我們只需要使用20%的精力,就可以了解到公司80%概況,但如想了解剩下的20%具體情況,我們要用上超過80%精力。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後,你消耗了所有精力在一家公司上,並不保證一定會贏錢,因為這世界沒有甚麼東西是有保證的,尤其是在投資市場。行業板塊的一個翻轉,或公司CEO突然發神經要將所有資金拿來做火箭,你之前所有研究都會白費。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資就是概率遊戲,但概率永遠不可能達到100%,你永遠不可能100%安心。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你是投資債券的投資者,卻用上大量時間精力去研究一家公司,天天苦苦思索計算,季季追看財報,實際上根本參與不到公司的成長,這其實是資源錯配。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 多花80%的時間去研究一家企業的營運,將公司成長的預測勝率從80%提升到85%,然後去買債券,有意思嗎?這就是在用投資股票的角度去投資債券。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你不如將這80%時間拿去多認識4家公司,從而分散風險,更具CP值。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 研究再深,終歸也是概率的計算,所以只要是投資,就有風險,就會不安心。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資不安心,才是常態。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們最多做到的,是將風險控制到使自己的不安心程度,處於一個有足夠警覺、但又不致於影響日常生活的狀態——即「吃得下,睡得著,笑得出」。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為,投資是為了賺錢,不是為了心理治療。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">逃避才是最危險</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你說,不對,我現在做投資,就很安心——那糟糕了,代表你正在忽視風險,遲早會被市場教訓。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 散戶最常見的誤解,就是那位會員所認知的,以為可以將投資風險外判,從而令自己安心。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 他們會想,我看不懂財報,但那些專家看得懂。我交一點管理費,將投資交給他們,我少賺一點,換來安心,有甚麼不妥?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 極為不妥!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這是以消費的角度去看待投資,將投資行為當成消費行為了。不客氣地說,這樣想的人,是不帶腦袋,完全不懂投資的本質!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們的消費行為,例如,到餐廳吃個飯,我們付出金錢,得到了烹調好的食物,通常付出的金額愈高,食物的質素愈高(或環境愈好)。我們不用理會廚師如何烹調,大家就是等價交換。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 可是,投資不是等價交換,我們不可能交一點管理費,就去買下投資風險的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你以為你付出昂貴的管理費,對方答應給你的回報率比較低,就表示很安全?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你以為對方名牌大學畢業,有很嚇人的背景,很深的經驗,很高大上的頭銜,租下香港中環IFC一整層做辦公室,就一定比你專業?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你以為對方很懂得Presentation,用很漂亮的話,將投資目標宣傳為「實現低風險高水平的當期收入」,就做得到?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不是的,你要知道華爾街是甚麼地方,對方愈是說得漂亮,愈代表他在忽悠你。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資風險,不是你交出多少管理費決定的,也不是基金標榜回報率多少決定的,更不是基金吹噓自己有多厲害決定的,而是基金最後投資了甚麼而決定的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我知道,人的天性就是逃避,既想得到回報,又不想負上風險,就想用消費的方法將風險買下。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,投資和消費是完全不同的概念,你以為將風險轉嫁了,事實上風險反而是增加了,你只是閉上雙眼,不看、不想、不理,然後感覺很安心。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你今天的安心,只會換來明天的恐慌。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資,就是不能依賴別人,不能!!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">甚麼時候我們才可以買基金?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 八成開放型股票基金,長期績效都是輸於市場平均水平(即股票ETF)。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 剩下的兩成勝者,成員每年都會不同,因為,那大概率是運氣。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那麼,基金(或CEF)就沒有存在的價值嗎?也不是的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在一些時候,你可以將一些投資交給別人代為處理,但前提是,你自己必須是主導,你必須知道人家在做甚麼,你只是在分拆一些不大重要、簡單的工作。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 例子一,你想投資的資產,難以自行買到或流通量太低,但又適合放在投資組合內作配置,你可以利用CEF去投資,例如市政債券和高級貸款。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 例子二,你正在學習階段,未熟悉直接投資原始產品,就先利用CEF作為代客泊車的工具,例如國債和公司債券。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你是例子二,時刻記住,那只是暫時的過渡性質,不能長期依賴。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 長期依賴,你就會失去實戰的機會,不實戰,你看書再多、分析再厲害,你也只是零。沒有實戰的1在前面,你累積再多的零,也是白做工。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有人一定會抬槓說,我去弄清楚基金投的標的是甚麼、有甚麼風險、用甚麼策略、用了多少槓桿等等,這總可以安心了吧?可惜,大多數基金沒有那麼高的透明度,即使投資組合有透明度,投資策略也一定沒有。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 大多數基金,總有你看不懂的東西,如果你完全看得懂,那你不如自己來。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">為何不自己來?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 抬槓的人又會辯解說,不對呀,我自己投資股票,總是很快輸得精光,反而投資股票基金,成績沒那麼差。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那是因為,你的路走錯了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你投資的成績輸給主動基金,最大可能不是你的技術不如基金經理,而是你的心態不行。你擺脫不了散戶普遍的投資心態:偏執判斷、過度自信、從眾心理、損失規避......(詳見《</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/81725752" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">投資心態 - 論散戶的不理性行為</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 股票基金能贏你,不是因為他們比你專業,只是因為他們不是在用自己的錢。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但饒是如此,大多數股票基金長期表現還是輸給大盤指數,那幾乎代表了普遍股票基金最後的成績,並不如你閉上眼睛亂買,或猴子投飛鏢。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因此,如果你明知道自己投資股票擺脫不了散戶心理,明知道自己勝不了大盤指數,應該做的,是去買股票ETF,爭取平均表現,而不是去買更差勁的股票基金。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 與股票基金/CEF不同,不少債券CEF過往的表現,卻可以跑贏債券ETF, 那是為何?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為就算是買垃圾債,贏面也是8成,一般情況下,所有人都可以跑贏債券ETF(詳情參看《</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/41623741" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">為何我不選擇債券ETF?</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》)。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你買入十幾檔投資級別的債券/ETD/優先股,分散在不同行業和年期,目標每年回報5-6%——這幾乎是必贏的,也沒甚麼難度。如果你想追求較高的回報率,那就適量配置高收益債券、REITs等其他標的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 重點是,你很清楚你買的是甚麼,風險的程度有多高。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這就是懶系投資的精髓之一,以最低的資源,達致最高的勝率。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是你說,你不要,你偏要投在一檔債券CEF上,因為那代表一次過投資上千檔債券,分散程度更佳,而且股息率還超過10%。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 後果很可能是,基金或為了吸引眼球、或為了維持高息率、或為了證明自己有在做事、或就是想上下其手謀取私利,然後用上了高槓桿,投資了一堆你完全看不懂的衍生產品,拿你的本金配還給你,還用不同的財技隱瞞ROC……結果基金淨值一直跌、一直跌,你卻根本不知道在跌甚麼,也不知道風險從哪裡來。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 是的,人家確實很專業,很專業地在忽悠你這棵韭菜。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資,一定是愈簡單,愈美麗。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你又可能辯解說,不對呀,一些基金過往的表現很好呀。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你要堅持這麼槓,請自便。不過要記住,基金過去表現不代表未來表現,我現在聊的是風險,大多數情況下,愈遠離原始產品的資產,風險愈高。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不要再將投資當消費!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; 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font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><br />風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-58174407106689100652023-08-21T20:00:00.002+08:002023-08-21T20:00:00.147+08:00 給女兒的話<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不知不覺,你即將16歲了。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-c7651c11-7fff-1615-398c-167c42ba3b59"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我覺得你很出色,遠比我以前出色,不止是因為你很會讀書,更因為你懂得思想,懂得衝量成敗得失,想當年,我在你這年紀的時候,就只是</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">「一舊飯」。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不過,太懂得思考也有不好的一面,我知道你會懼怕失敗、害怕做錯,那是人之常情,以下有一些話,我想和你分享。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果我們</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">怕做錯而不做,那永遠都不會做,永遠都錯。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 無論在學校、生活或職場中都一樣,哪怕是有一個老師或前輩教你、帶著你做,你都有可能做錯或做不好。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那麼我們可以怎麼辦?沒有怎麼辦,只能繼續做,慢慢磨練,沒有那種別人一教就會,你一做就成的事,就算有,那叫「運氣好」。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 人,不可能永遠靠運氣好的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我未創立Patreon前,很多網友喜歡隨便地找我提問,從網友的問題中,我看到有一種人,特別喜歡問、想、然後問、然後想、繼續問、繼續想……問題一個接著一個。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 只要我一針對他的問題回答,他一定會有其他的問題,一個接一個,永無休止。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這其實是很差的學習方法,用提問的形式去學習,永遠也學不懂。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 想要學懂,你一定要自己邊看、邊想、邊做,大膽去試著做,結果可能做成,也可能做不成,不一定的,但也只能邊做邊改,邊改邊學,邊學邊做。也就是說,要真正學懂,你就要真的實做,從實戰經驗中慢慢磨練成長。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在實戰之前,你也許需要先看一些書、讀一些文章、記一些筆記,打一個系統性的理論基礎。但是,理論還理論,有理論基礎絕不等於懂,你不實戰,我肯定,連那一點點理論基礎都會在短時間內忘光光。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 更甚的是,有不少人連基礎也不願打,試也不試,就是指望別人給一個答案。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 學習,並不存在別人給你一個答案,然後你就能怎樣。不,你還是一樣,和之前一樣。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我希望你多問、敢問,更希望你多去嘗試。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 關鍵點是實戰,而不是想像。你做了一大堆猜想,看似有在努力,其實都是在白做工。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們大部份的成年人上班族也是這樣,每天看似很忙,非常忙,然後呢?週而復始,看似忙了很多年,其實還停留在原地。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 然後這些人,不停地抱怨,不斷地抱怨,千錯萬錯都是別人的錯,全世界都欠他一個公道,別人能做成,那都是別人運氣好而已。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 成功的人找方法,失敗的人找藉口,整天空想、刷手機,然後呢?然後就沒有然後了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 你覺得自己不懂嗎?那就做做看呀。別再去想甚麼成敗得失,這世界並沒有所謂成功和失敗,更沒有得失,只要你肯去做,你就是成功了,你就是突破了!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">你有甚麼人生目標?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 幾天前,一位已移居高雄的香港朋友傳了一個「無厘頭」訊息,他問我:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「你有沒有甚麼人生目標?」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「好深的題目。」我回答,外加一個滴汗表情。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我的是健康,週圍去旅行,照顧好家人。」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我的人生目標是,不斷去尋找不同的人生目標。」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這是我最後的回答。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這也是我希望你現時在做的事。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 丟掉那勞什子學習歷程檔案吧,那種垃圾,應付一下教育局就好!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在你這年紀,過早去設定甚麼成敗、得失、目標,只會限制了你自己的潛能。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在你這年紀,就應該像玩大風吹,四處遊蕩、四圍嘗試,並樂在其中。我們所有的突破和進步,總是來自新事物、新環境、新體驗,或來自我們所謂的弱連結(Weak ties),例如朋友的朋友的朋友。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 也許你覺得,做得不好會很丟臉。我告訴你,我在你這種年紀,做盡了無數丟臉的事,但事實上,根本沒人放在心上。我們做得不好,很正常的,就算是現在,我也是樣樣事都做不好,例如煮飯。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 做不好,並不丟臉,當年我和朋友們覺得丟臉的,是那些怯怯懦懦、甚麼也不敢嘗試的人,我們最佩服的,是臉皮厚、到處去冒險嘗試的人。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 未來,無論你是想轉學、轉系、留在國內、還是出國留學,只要你願意,只要你肯試,我都會無限量支持,無論是在精神上,還是在財政上。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不用覺得會做錯決定,做錯就重來吧,你有的是時間可以反悔。青春就是用來燃燒的,做錯也是一種突破、一種成功、一種生命體驗。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 別忘了,你是有靠山的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 萬事不用驚,老爸在大廳!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-71380179689359675532023-08-05T20:00:00.002+08:002023-08-06T00:33:57.884+08:00 投資長債一定賺?<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 美國長期國債和長期投資級公司債價格現在降下來了,表面上是惠譽(Fitch)調降美國信評惹的禍,事實上惠譽降評就只是一個觸發點而已。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-5dc6da49-7fff-3def-6983-8451d71848ac"><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以下是兩個月前的一篇Patreon文章的節錄(數據已過時),文長慎入。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> ******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最近經常收到會員詢問哪檔投資級別的公司債券可以購入,他們的想法是,在升息末期買入長年期債券,然後等待美聯儲局降息,就可以賺價又賺息。也有會員留言,已買入了長年期國債ETF(例如TLT),聯儲局一降息就坐等收錢。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 與此同時,銀行和證券商也在大力推銷投資級別債券,不看尤自可,一看嚇一跳,他們推銷的債券,極高比例是那些你死的那一天也未必能等到本金收回的超長債,有2045年、2060年、2070年到期的,還有無到期日的永續債。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 傳媒、銀行、證券商、理財顧問、KOL給你的說法是:</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">投資等級公司債都是高品質公司發行的,違約風險很低,可以放心買入;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">聯儲局的升息已近尾聲,現在是利率高峰期,持有之後等到降息就可以賺到價差;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">債券的年期愈長,對利率的反應愈靈敏,降息時賺到的價差就愈多;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">現在投資等級公司債的收益率超過5%,是多年來的高位。</span></p></li></ol><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以上說法,是不是聽來非常有道理?這也是現在大部份人的共識——買入高質素的長年期債券,坐著,等,收錢。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 大家都同意這必賺方程式嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你問我,我會笑而不語、不置可否。經驗告訴我,當市場一面倒地偏向某一方、傳媒銀行證券商大肆吹噓、所有人都自以為掌握到真理時,利好因素可能早已被過度反應,不久之後就是韭菜被收割的時候。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 今天我們就來聊聊,現時買入長年期投資級別債券是否穩贏?是否真如大家所說的坐著等收錢?</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">投資級別債券的收益率</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 一向有追看我的Patreon文章的朋友都知道,去年8月之後我曾建議增加投資級別債券(投等債)的比重,並寫了一系列投等債的推介。事實證明,在去年10-11月,確是買入投等債的最佳時機。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 時隔大半年,現在投資等級債券的吸引力還在不在?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 下圖是穆迪Baa評級公司債的收益率走勢圖,截至2023年6月15日,Baa級債券的收益率是5.74%。</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHky-j9CyRpxq6MR7rGersX3kM0teF2cvjLyZDydwtv-yDwUFc8gGcDcwMypz1gE8ckcBL2435z8ABUa9e6qME6zD0BSAjzgVnejMuLNlKyqe72QyJTN_zVztPpVLZYE_NRvAyUdeWcqsFD6cesuvEVVxpjhP38jwNq6qrHJ2JoqNj5XNA8ZQwOXE-k9iI/s1177/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="535" data-original-width="1177" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHky-j9CyRpxq6MR7rGersX3kM0teF2cvjLyZDydwtv-yDwUFc8gGcDcwMypz1gE8ckcBL2435z8ABUa9e6qME6zD0BSAjzgVnejMuLNlKyqe72QyJTN_zVztPpVLZYE_NRvAyUdeWcqsFD6cesuvEVVxpjhP38jwNq6qrHJ2JoqNj5XNA8ZQwOXE-k9iI/w400-h181/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(Source:https://ycharts.com/indicators/moodys_seasoned_baa_corporate_bond_yield)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 下圖是穆迪Aaa評級公司債的收益率走勢圖,截至2023年6月15日,Aaa級債券的收益率是4.63%。</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-ZnwZyaPuvjXoJbdAw--YuggSTl_kSJgK_UM1yTiDjAV36B4S66fwILOXXR2ZG7_ep7SUm9efcEmx6x6lGiOcI_oyXdhHwaUvZDMs5lT2K-JdHPt87keKSAIpkbmHq3xtoIdWWWSEWHVh8jXRLC-sWal9rwupa7VDl57qjp3RVmyI2YiQ10rRdaqQWVgp/s1175/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="1175" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-ZnwZyaPuvjXoJbdAw--YuggSTl_kSJgK_UM1yTiDjAV36B4S66fwILOXXR2ZG7_ep7SUm9efcEmx6x6lGiOcI_oyXdhHwaUvZDMs5lT2K-JdHPt87keKSAIpkbmHq3xtoIdWWWSEWHVh8jXRLC-sWal9rwupa7VDl57qjp3RVmyI2YiQ10rRdaqQWVgp/w400-h181/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/moodys_seasoned_aaa_corporate_bond_yield)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 也就是說,現時一般投資級別債券的收益率,大約落在4.63%-5.74%之間,雖然比去年11月的最高位有所回落,但這一刻的收益率仍處於2011年後的12年高位。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 看到這裡,有人立刻出來說,哈哈,被打臉了吧,事實證明現在的債券收益率仍處於高位,買入後一邊收高息、一邊等待聯儲局降息,價息兩頭賺,根本是必贏的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 別急,除了收益率外,也許我們應該從不同角度再看看。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">公司債券收益率與聯邦基金利率的息差</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 所謂聯邦基金利率(Federal Funds Rate),又稱聯邦基準利率,是由紐約聯邦儲備銀行每日發佈,並緊隨聯邦儲備局(FED)設定的聯邦基金目標利率( Fed Funds Target Rate)。當基準利率偏離目標利率,聯邦儲備局會透過公開市場操作,確保利率維持在此區間內,以此來影響美國經濟的貨幣供應量。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 聯邦基金利率同時又是美國商業銀行之間隔夜拆息的目標利率,因為愈短期的利率,變動因素愈低,就需愈接近基準。所以,聯邦基金利率、基準利率、隔夜拆息目標利率,是三位一體。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 現時聯邦基金目標利率區間為5.0%-5.25%,實質聯邦基金利率為5.07%。</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIHAJUUUEFxMEnlEM-N-DCKjMWIqSq6dUTgQ90UFD2_TvqjLV5I3IWmWOOkZxjVPQWO9XkCNmEvyaWc_fLN_fL2IrmLPfqV1V9tOJn-IHidWTz25Ukqd67u7oGw6PhxqHYjZWnlZ3hgbCzyr15s61ZscaBEBtHMd23LAeBdIrm-sRo18KGoZ7zPa6COa3R/s1278/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="1278" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIHAJUUUEFxMEnlEM-N-DCKjMWIqSq6dUTgQ90UFD2_TvqjLV5I3IWmWOOkZxjVPQWO9XkCNmEvyaWc_fLN_fL2IrmLPfqV1V9tOJn-IHidWTz25Ukqd67u7oGw6PhxqHYjZWnlZ3hgbCzyr15s61ZscaBEBtHMd23LAeBdIrm-sRo18KGoZ7zPa6COa3R/w400-h226/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(Source: https://www.macromicro.me/charts/7160/lian-bang-ji-jin-li-lv)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們每天聽到的「聯儲局降息」,指的是聯儲局降低聯邦基金目標利率的區間。那麼,為何聯邦基金目標利率下降,會使公司債券價格上升?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因為一旦聯儲局降低目標利率,聯邦基金利率就會立即隨之下降,美國國債的利率也不得不跟隨下降。由於美國國債代表無風險利率,公司債券與國債有一定的風險溢價,所以公司債券的收益率也會跟隨國債下降以保持息差。由於債券收益率與價格成反比,收益率下降,代表價格上升。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以上是最淺顯最基本的理論,如果你買債券是為了等降息賺價差,卻不知道這些,我會吐血。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 明白了其中原理,下圖是穆迪Baa評級公司債收益率與聯邦基金利率息差的10年走勢圖:</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU6X0slVdQ5YMaBpbxl8hAtG0dy2Zom3QBcoDjNIh-ewwJrD1Y4GGDcQ0MiF40yH_9SbipVemvAWuLfyHSyuyDmcL7wby-1tj3lNDj-8JGJUetEboSnXvmh2Ij4bCSFTXSKOuQMXE8ot18CKQK7EH6GIaCX6iVCewRvQJpc_v7cEPR8jZEEMePPLdB1dkQ/s1635/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="723" data-original-width="1635" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU6X0slVdQ5YMaBpbxl8hAtG0dy2Zom3QBcoDjNIh-ewwJrD1Y4GGDcQ0MiF40yH_9SbipVemvAWuLfyHSyuyDmcL7wby-1tj3lNDj-8JGJUetEboSnXvmh2Ij4bCSFTXSKOuQMXE8ot18CKQK7EH6GIaCX6iVCewRvQJpc_v7cEPR8jZEEMePPLdB1dkQ/w400-h178/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAAFF)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 過去10年,Baa級別債券的收益率與聯邦基金利率息差平均大約在3.6%左右,而現在的息差為0.67%,幾乎接近零,是1998年後的15年新低。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最高級別的債券息差更恐怖,以下是穆迪Aaa評級公司債收益率與聯邦基金利率息差的10年走勢圖:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMP0_KEBZlTWKcW0v9zTmn3M17ejUOBxEZH9DuGlTqkrtJuS-MCetsNdeE7kFt7cCUiidboeOl5RyObsfwmTSy81L4zfpC9wJmZ64zHVlUCVjIehxrJnAnbP4QqcwQbDOS5279H0ejCqldMnaUdn5-0fp7FDhbvD3_Nm2_di3myZZb247uq1U9JNS3XeYg/s1627/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-5.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="1627" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMP0_KEBZlTWKcW0v9zTmn3M17ejUOBxEZH9DuGlTqkrtJuS-MCetsNdeE7kFt7cCUiidboeOl5RyObsfwmTSy81L4zfpC9wJmZ64zHVlUCVjIehxrJnAnbP4QqcwQbDOS5279H0ejCqldMnaUdn5-0fp7FDhbvD3_Nm2_di3myZZb247uq1U9JNS3XeYg/w400-h156/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-5.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AAAFF)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 過去10年,Aaa級別債券的收益率與聯邦基金利率息差平均大約在2.5%左右,而現在的息差是多少? -0.44%,是負數!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們再拉闊來看歷史,接近這程度的負息差,只曾在1985、1986和1989年短暫出現過,而且是無一例外地在短時間內立刻反彈回復正息差。像今天這種程度的負息差,又可以維持這麼久,可謂史無前例。</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFV4Nvs54tQY6f9Xq1ffa1DLmNtnmV_wrWZ9_hcO9PlxZn2u6ZkJwZzIO35bJGK5lM-rydbPKkm2kwH5rsXXWCCgUPbYurrmwuvBa16w4Dfmz5ODPsvTLp29s9EMQhDhvqBnkSOf-R3jq7fUD3IQxTu0d1L-KazJNRM95w4Cbr7cl1iCNOtTv0BLdaENTv/s1643/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-6.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="1643" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFV4Nvs54tQY6f9Xq1ffa1DLmNtnmV_wrWZ9_hcO9PlxZn2u6ZkJwZzIO35bJGK5lM-rydbPKkm2kwH5rsXXWCCgUPbYurrmwuvBa16w4Dfmz5ODPsvTLp29s9EMQhDhvqBnkSOf-R3jq7fUD3IQxTu0d1L-KazJNRM95w4Cbr7cl1iCNOtTv0BLdaENTv/w400-h166/20230619%20-%20%E7%A0%B4%E9%9A%9C%E9%99%A4%E8%BF%B7%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%95%B7%E5%82%B5%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E8%B3%BA%EF%BC%9F-6.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那麼,零息差和負息差代表了甚麼?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">負息差代表了甚麼?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 代表市場早已反應了減息的預期,而且是深度反應。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 表面上,長年期美國國債和公司債券的收益率確實處於10年高位,但那是相對以前零利率的時代,不是現在的聯邦基金利率水平。息差不斷縮窄的原因,一來是聯儲局的升息太急,國債和公司債收益率遠遠追不上,二來是由於市場對減息的預期太深。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 現在的投資級別債券息差距離正常的息差平均水平,低了大約3%,也就是說,市場現在已經提前反應聯儲局減息了3%,亦即提前反應了聯邦基金目標利率已從現時的5%-5.25%,減至2%-2.25%。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那已經是反應到猴年馬月的利率?</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">今天的局勢</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 美國聯儲局在6月14日(週三)宣布保持利率不變,暫停了連續15個月的加息措施。然而,根據最新的經濟預測,他們暗示可能在年底前再次加息兩次。聯儲局主席鮑威爾還提到,他們預計在「兩年後」才會考慮降息,因為目前通脹風險仍然是上升的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 沙盤推演,假設聯儲局說的成為事實,又假設現在的公司債價格不變,那麼債券收益率與聯邦基金利率的息差將會繼續縮窄。再升息2碼,距離以往的正常息差水平就會再低0.5%,達到3.5%水平。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 假設再升息2碼,真到了利率高峰期,要再等一兩年,才等到聯儲局開始討論降息,討論之後,還要再等聯儲局逐步從目標區間5.5%-5.75%降至2%-2.5%,每次降1碼的話就是要降14次,然後債券息差才算回到正常水平。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 聯儲局的理據,是美國核心服務通脹和就業市場仍相當頑強,每小時薪資增長仍維持4.5%,這有推動通脹的危險。而且今年下半年油價有望反彈,醫療成本可能回升,加上對比去年的高基數效應應該會有所減退,必須防止通脹反撲。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 為何市場總是不斷預期升息循環已近尾聲,期望今年底開始減息?因為大家都在一廂情願,思維仍停留在低息年代。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 為何要再加息2碼?假如聯儲局預計通脹數字必須控制在3.5%,聯邦基金利率就需要超過2%,代表最終的聯邦基金利率需要在5.5%以上。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 升息至高峰後為何要維持一段時間?因為聯儲局需要讓利率維持在高點,才能產生足夠的通貨緊縮。需要維持多久?從歷史來看,與今天的利率相近的上一次經驗是在2006年6月,當時利率升至5.25%,然後一直維持到2007年8月才開始降息,所以這一次維持1-2年並不算過份。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 市場一直存有過高的降息預期,其中一個原因是聯儲局控制市場預期的手法。這次升息週期從去年三月開始,聯儲局初時預測終端利率在3.25%-3.5%區間,之後暗示利率將略低於4%(令市場預估終端利率在3.75%-4%區間),之後再暗示利率達4.4%(令市場預估終端利率在4.25%-4.5%區間),直至現在,又再暗示利率將達5.5%。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這可能是出自於期望管理的考慮,以漸進方式不斷拉高利率指引,防止市場措手不及出現恐慌。想像一下,如果去年三月一開始就預測終端利率將達到5.5%,將為市場帶來多大的震盪。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但我認為真正的理由,是聯儲局自己也是一直在摸著石頭過河,根本不知道終端利率在哪裡。因為終端利率是由實際利率去判定的,在通脹年代,只能根據不斷變動的通脹數據去不斷修改。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">後續的發展</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我是在建議大家拋售公司債嗎?不是。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 錯的方向也可以賺到錢,對的方向也可以虧到錢,只視乎你好不好運。你大舉投入長債,好運的話,也可能真如你所願賺息賺價,或許是通脹數字突然大幅下降(俄烏戰事結束?)令聯儲局提前降息,或許是出現深度經濟衰退逼使聯儲局提前降息,也或許是負息差破歷史性地持續擴大令公司債價格不斷上升,誰知道呢?只是,當聯儲局自己也是在摸著石頭過河時,為何你會覺得自己更有能力作出準確預測?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有人會反駁,加息週期後遲早也會輪到降息週期,只是時間問題而已,投資債券是為了收息,並不在乎價格。而且我不是常說,作為現金流投資者,只要現金流和收益率符合期望,價格不必放在心上嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 的確是的,只不過現在大家都說要等待降息賺價差,那我就從價差角度來跟你聊。散戶的一大特色就是,開始投資時心內根本是為了價差,一旦套牢,就會改口說是為了收息。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 更重要的是,你投的可能是2099年才到期的超長債呀。也許你認為,投資等級債券相比高收益債券穩健,發行者肯定是好公司,倒閉機率非常低。但是,超過20年以後的事情誰能說得準?我們又怎可能判斷哪一家公司,在20年以後就一定不會倒閉呢?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 好,就算不倒閉,超長年期的債券也失去了債券到期回本的最大優勢,因為你的壽命大概率是等不到債券到期那天,你大概率會在市場上沽出,因而承受市場價格的風險。別忘了,信評是隨著公司經營而調整,現在是A級的評級,可能幾年後等到聯儲局真的降息了,評級卻變成了Ba1,債券價格也會隨著被市場調降,你不但沒有賺到還損失了巨大的本金價差。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">總結</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 投資並無必勝法,尤其是想賺價差的時候。現在的利率可能是高峰,也可能不是,聯儲局年底前是否如其暗示的再加息2碼,機會也只有一半一半。但連決定加不加息的那個人,自己也是見一步走一步,看著通脹數字來走,我們又如何能說得準?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 即使利率已經達到高點,我們仍無法確定降息會在多久之後發生。如果在降息之後,通脹再度上升,可能會再次轉向加息,這種情況並非不可能發生。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 現時投資等級債券4.63%-5.74%的收益率,好像頗為吸引,但是基準利率實際上就是5%,長債與超長債收益率,與基準利率已沒有息差甚至出現負息差,基於風險溢價,代表已經將降息效應深度地提前實現了。缺乏合理的正息差,理論上就不是購入長債的好時機。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 再次重申,這篇文章不是建議大家要買、或不要買長年期債券,只是將事實闡述出來,破解市場上「長債必勝」的迷思,決定權在你們手上。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在市場上,沒有甚麼東西是不能買的,沒有最好的資產,只有適合你的資產。但你要先知道自己買的是甚麼,知道自己在做甚麼,搞清楚狀況,然後控制好持倉的比例。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> ......</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (節錄自兩個月前的Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; 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font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-49693369443713931042023-07-21T20:00:00.002+08:002023-07-21T20:00:00.152+08:00 再談美國遺產稅<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但凡投資美國資產,遺產稅是千年不變的老問題,鑑於非美國稅務居民只有6萬美元的遺產免稅額,所以隔一段時間就要提一提。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-069cc87f-7fff-409f-3a67-75782f379897"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 先從最簡單的聊起,根據美國國家稅務局(Internal Revenue Service, IRS)法令規定,外國人去世時如果擁有美國資產,如美國公司股份或美國房地產等,需向美國政府繳交遺產稅。除了首13,000美元的稅收抵免(相當於60,000美元遺產的價值)外,餘下的遺產稅稅額均需視乎遺產的價值按18%-40%的稅率徵收,超過100萬美元以上的遺產稅率為40%。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以下這幾類投資不需繳付美國遺產稅:</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">由非美國公司發行的股票(例如Tesla的股票應稅,而TSMC台積電的ADR免稅);</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">非美國註冊的共同基金;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">由任何美國或非美國發行商發行的債券和商業票據(只要這類債券或商業票據的利息免於預扣稅);</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">美國國庫券證券;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">美國政府機構證券(包括市政債券);</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">單一美國公司債。</span></p></li></ol><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 理論上,美國屬全球徵稅,不管你通過甚麼渠道投資美股或美國房地產,遺產稅都是免不了。但是在現實上,如果你通過一些本地證券行/銀行(台灣稱之為複委託)投資美國資產,竟可以避免美國遺產稅。這是因為複委託是代投資者持有股份,在資產持有人過世後,如果複委託沒有向美國稅務單位通報,直接就結束戶口或更改客戶姓名,美國國稅局是不知道的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這種情況台灣比較多見,其實已經屬於逃稅的一種,近年有逐漸收緊的趨向。有些複委託已經明確告訴客戶,帳戶持有者過世後,會代扣美國遺產稅後才轉移給家屬。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如何避免高昂的遺產稅,或曠日彌久的遺產申領程序,開始出現千奇百怪的方法。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 通用、快速而又「王道」的解決辦法就是定期人壽保險或意外保險,投資者可以考慮準備一份賠償金額為200萬港元(720萬台幣)或以上的保單,利用人壽保險或意外險的「槓桿」對沖遺產稅的影響。這筆賠償是用來請律師會計師處理在美國的遺產,以及繳付遺產稅,免卻現金缺口的煩惱,代價是每年的保險費用。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 接下來聊聊不大「王道」的做法。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 假如使用IB、Firstrade、Charles Schwab這些海外券商,很多人首先想到的是,事先將登入資訊與操作告訴最親近的人,萬一自己出事,有人立即賣出資產並將資金調回本地銀行。IB有一個被稱為「自爆鍵」的「Close All Position」功能,一經按下,會自動以市價將所有持倉沽出,正符合此用途。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,這方法在台灣不大適用,因為台灣本地銀行遇上海外匯款,一定會聯絡本人確認。在香港,海外匯款近年也在逐漸收緊,據會員分享,如果轉出金額不高(例如30至40萬港幣),似乎沒有問題,但太高的話IB會致電本人確認。如果分散金額、頻密轉出至同名而不同的銀行帳號收款,不久後同樣會收到IB 通知,要求確認身份及提供證明。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 使用Charles Schwab的Debit Card以海外提款方式提款呢?這方法更不實際,除了手續費外,每天提款限額不能超過1000美金,那是要提到猴年馬月、民國幾年?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 另外使用公司帳戶持有美股,也可以解決遺產稅的問題。不過這會衍生公司盈利稅、核數成本與持有公司成本等問題,未見官先打八十大板。而且公司在交易與股息稅務上,通常與個人不同。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最後我發現聯名帳戶似乎才是最靠譜的避稅方法。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 海外券商的聯名帳戶,當其中一個持有人不幸過世,另一個持有人只要向券商遞交死亡證明,就可以取得帳戶所有權,包括帳戶內所有資產。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但聯名帳戶不會牽涉到美國遺產稅嗎?根據我查到的資訊,當帳戶內的主、副申請人都是外國人,並不會被套用美國遺產稅法,除非聯名帳戶內的成員有人是美國公民,才會被套用美國遺產稅法。當原本的主申請人過世後,券商只是依另一申請人提供的證明文件,將聯名帳戶內的主申請人名字變更。遺產稅部份,就只剩下當地稅務機構怎麼看待聯名帳戶的戶名繼承問題。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 聯名帳戶的最大問題,就是資金匯入與匯出的困難。原則上,證券聯名帳戶只能與銀行聯名帳戶互匯(兩個名字都要完全相同),目前暫時只有Charles Schwab與IB才允許聯名帳戶匯給個人帳戶、或個人帳戶匯給聯名帳戶,而且不知道甚麼時候又有改變。問題是,台灣並沒有銀行可以開立聯名戶口。 </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這裡總結一些重點:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 1.用聯名帳戶的形式開設IB戶口,乃是最簡單、最方便的避稅方法。當其中一人遇到意外時,另一個聯名者仍可以繼續操作帳戶,由於共為所有權人,因此無遺產稅或繼承贈與的問題。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 2. 台灣銀行是不能開設聯名帳戶的,但是網上已有人以親身經驗分享,IB的聯名帳戶可以出金至銀行個人戶口(前提是那個人為聯名戶之一),可參考:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><a href="https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Foreign_Inv/M.1653401749.A.433.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Foreign_Inv/M.1653401749.A.433.html</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><a href="https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Foreign_Inv/M.1653393004.A.B1E.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Foreign_Inv/M.1653393004.A.B1E.html</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 3. 以公司名義開立帳戶,是另一種可以避免美國遺產稅的方法,但維持公司名號有一定的成本,包括公司成立費用、會計費用等等,而且公司在投資交易與股息稅務上,通常與個人不同。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 4. 用券商提供的Debit Card以海外提款的方式領出資產,並不實際,只適合資產規模小的情況。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 5. 幾乎所有證券商只允許出金至同名戶口。在台灣,如果投資者死亡,醫院即時會通知衛福部,48小時內衛福部會通知戶政處,戶政處收到就會通知金資中心,金資中心即刻通知所有銀行。也就是說,死者的銀行戶口三日內就會被凍結,不能匯入任何款項。台灣銀行做事一向沒甚效率,這方面倒是超級有效率的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 6. 在香港,如果投資者死亡,銀行戶口並不會被即時凍結,但如果金額較大或次數較頻密,也會以電話確認本人,導致匯入款項失敗。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 7. 使用本地境內證券商(即台灣所稱的「複委託」)可避免美股遺產稅的說法,肯定是不正確的,就算有人曾經成功過,也屬於證券商的私下操作,是屬於逃稅而不是避稅。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 8. 複委託的好處,是提供一個本地窗口幫你代為處理稅務問題,你不需直接面對美國國稅局。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 9. 如果不是聯名帳戶或公司帳戶,申領遺產的程序就是先接洽證券商,然後跟著證券商給出的流程跑。其間需要向美國國稅局繳交遺產稅申請表格706-NA、遺囑副本、死亡證明副本、財產判決書等等文件,再邀交遺產稅,取得相關證明後才可向證券商申請取回遺產。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 10. 不同的證券商,包括美國券商、複委託、銀行等等,各自的規定和處理流程都有所不同,視乎情況可能還需要聘請美國律師向法院申請,整個過程動輒可以消耗你兩三年。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 11. 由於要先繳稅才能取回財產,如果家人沒錢繳稅,也是取不回的。所以你需要留一定數量的現金在境內給家人,或以定期壽險來補足這一塊。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 12. 即使你的投資資產是免稅類別,例如國債、市政債或公司債,最後根本不需要繳付遺產稅,上述的流程也是要跑足,一樣也少不了!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 13. 除非你一開始就決定將過身後的財產全部捐給美國政府,為美國再次偉大盡自己最後一分力,否則,你必須盡早讓家人知道你的財產放在哪裡、投資分佈如何、以及日後怎樣取回。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 14. 最後,美國稅項是世界上最複雜的東西,眾說紛紜,而且每個人遇到的情況都可能不同,如果你堅持要求有百份百正確的答案,請自行諮詢稅務相關的專業人士。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-25399224425557282882023-07-06T20:00:00.001+08:002023-07-06T20:00:00.141+08:00 博傻遊戲<p><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 早在2月初,我寫下了一篇《</span><a href="http://laxinvest.blogspot.com/2023/02/blog-post_20.html" style="text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">人工智能體驗之旅:從文字、圖像至影片</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》,分享自己在AI方面的初步探討,也利用AI拍了三段短片。最後一段短片甚至創造了一個虛擬人物作主持,又未看過的朋友可以一看:</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-88eb6fbf-7fff-6c16-f2fd-d5b761b83893"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@laxinvest/videos" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.youtube.com/@laxinvest/videos</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在拍了三段短片後,我發現自己對拍片和剪輯實在沒甚麼興趣,也就停了下來,對AI的探討也隨之停止了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事實上,之後AI發展一發不可收拾,每天都有新的東西,幾個月就面目全非。在數月內,微軟各級產品AI化了、Bing可以創作文章和繪圖了、Google的Bard正式推出了、百度的文心一言也推出了、Adobe圖像軟件全方位加入了AI、AI詐騙和AI相片開始泛濫……更別提各式各樣不斷出現的無數新開源AI模型,全方位地讓你感受到AI時代的到來。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這為更多人帶來了焦慮,幾乎所有人都出現了「AI錯失恐懼症」,但對一般人來說,要天天緊緊跟隨AI潮流,又頗有「以無涯隨有涯」之感。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 面對AI帶來的焦慮,也許我們需要一些自我修養,包括:</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">AI是你的個人助理,不是老闆,不必事事跟隨,反受牽制;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">現在AI生產答案的速度已是以秒計算,我們要培養的,是問問題的能力;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">問問題的能力,是先了解問題,然後切分問題,才能對AI作出有意義的提示;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">有些AI要求特定的Syntax,那並不重要,只是一個中介技術,死記Syntax只會增加你的焦慮,日後複雜的Syntax會內建;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">討論AI技術的限制並無意義,技術迭代下很多東西很快可以做到,例如現在AI的中文寫作創力有限,我最多只能拿來作一些文字的重寫和修飾,所有論點架構還是要自己來,但我不會知道甚麼時候AI可以補足這方面;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">辨讀資訊的能力和素養將是未來的核心技能,AI的發展,勢必造就大量的假訊息和垃圾訊息(現在我臉書的詐騙垃圾留言每天已是數以百計),日後被詐騙的容易度是過去的百倍;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">基本的自我學習能力比過去更需要,沒有基本學力是不懂問問題的;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">一般的辦公室文書工作,例如白領工作,現在是最受AI影響的工種;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">在AI面前,我們的角色應該是老闆,要清楚自己的目的、規劃和路線,然後將執行工作交給AI;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">面對AI,不大可能躺平,我們只能接受AI時代已經到來,然後放開心胸,擁抱變化,接受甚麼事都有可能。</span></p></li></ol><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以上只是心理層面,在投資層面,又是另一回事了。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">幾個月前的看法</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以下數段文字,是我在今年1-2月寫下的,當時AI的投資熱潮尚未正式大爆發。最終這些初稿沒有成文,只在投資組合2月結文章文末引用了一些,因為我發現自己的認識遠遠不夠班。現在看回來,短短數月很多東西已經實現,也很多東西已經過時,不要介意我在這裡拿出來獻醜:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;">「</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; white-space-collapse: preserve;">最近的AI概念,Google算是遇上了最大的危機,處境很是不妙。首先,我相信論以AI的技術和成熟度,Google的Bard不在Open AI之下,而AI結合傳統搜尋引擎,強強聯手大概率成為新的搜尋趨勢,接下來就是Microsoft的「chatGPT + Bing」與 Google的「Bard + Google」之爭了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 問題是,數字廣告收入佔了Google總收入的超過8成,其中又以Google搜尋廣告為重,現在,Google由原本市場率93%的搜尋引擎寡頭壟斷地位,一夜之間重回起點,和別人站在同一起跑線上,無論最後是勝是敗,只怕對其營收都是致命性的打擊。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 更糟的是,當Google面對史無前例的挑戰時,表現得驚慌失措、進退失據,竟犯下了低級錯誤,令Microsoft更佔先機。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 對Microsoft來說,搜尋引擎原本就不是主業,藉AI技術捆綁自家的Bing,根本是想徹底擊潰Google。日後進化版的ChatGPT再結合Microsoft的Office,正式進入所有文書處理,試問還有誰人能敵?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,不管Microsoft和Google誰勝誰敗,挖金礦的不一定能賺錢,賣鏟子的一定賺錢。隨著AI爆發式增長,算力需求幾乎無窮無盡,據研究數據,用於AI訓練的算力增長符合摩爾定律,即大約每20個月翻一番,但深度學習的出現加速了性能的擴展,AI訓練的算力大約每6個月翻一番,而大規模模型出現,更讓訓練算力達到原來的10到100倍。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 由於AI的計算涉及較多的矩陣或向量的乘法與加法,專用性高,不適合用普通CPU進行計算,主要用GPU和專用晶元進行運算。那就很明顯,諸如NVIDIA、AMD、台積電這些GPU或高階晶片製造商將成為最大的直接得益者。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 就以NVIDIA來說,之前我對這家公司相當反感,感覺它的高市盈率(本益比)就是建基在虛擬貨幣、元宇宙、NFT等等一大堆亂七八糟的潮流概念之上。但ChatGPT的橫空出世,幾乎可視為人類科技的奇點(Technological Singularity),NVIDIA、台積電這類公司的價值亦需要重新評估(雖然現在NVIDIA的過百倍市盈率還是令人不敢恭維)。</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;">」</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">AI熱潮是2000年的翻版?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 最近,Rosenberg Research 經濟學家兼策略師 David Rosenberg與瑞銀分析師同時表示,在人工智慧狂潮的帶動下,美股反彈將像網際網路泡沫時代一樣稍縱即逝。他們稱,美股的 AI 熱潮看起來就像是2000年網際網路泡沫的縮影。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 個人意見,現在的AI熱潮,表面看都是短期資金過度集中的非理性漲幅,但整體而言,現在和2000年網路泡沫末期的情況還是有很大差異,例如:</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">2000年末期網際網路泡沫的瘋狂行情,是好壞股皆漲;現在的AI熱潮,暫時還主要是以NVIDIA、APPLE、Microsoft、TSM、ASML等科技巨頭為主;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">2000年的網際網路,仍無法帶給企業實際營運貢獻;現在的AI已從題材轉為能實際帶給企業貢獻,這由NVIDIA的財報可以見到;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">2000年的網際網路技術才剛起步,終端應用和需求尚未出現;現在的AI配合成熟的網路環境,生成式AI各種應用正遍地開花。</span></p></li></ol><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 所以,這次的AI熱潮就算最後真的走上2000 年網際網路泡沫的老路,現在似乎也只像是當年泡沫的前期。無可否認,現在一些股票的短期漲幅過大、估值也過高,但整體而言,泡沫似乎是方興未艾。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那麼我們是應該全心投入進去,參加這個狂歡派對?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 每當有朋友問我是否應該投資AI股時,我都會問一個問題:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「為何你現在才想到要投資AI股票?」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 生成式AI的熱潮由去年11月開始,但這一波的AI投資狂熱,是今年5月才算正式啟動。無可否認,確實有一些投資者,在事前或事後看到了AI的前景,並以此計算出某股票的合理價值。但是,現在才想要投資AI股的,大多不是這種人。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 例如,你有能力回答以下幾個問題嗎?</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">AI技術的發展速度和潛力,以及其對社會和經濟的影響為何;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">AI相關公司和產品的真實價值和競爭力,以及其能否創造持續的利潤和增長;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">投資者對AI市場的預期和心理,以及你是否能夠理性地評估風險和回報。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 以上問題,不僅要有能力回答,還要有能力量化。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不要照搬其他人或專家的答案,誠實地問自己,能,或不能?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 有些人,是基於相信一些專家的分析,或傳媒的風向,以為自己懂了,其實他並不是真的懂。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果不懂,實質上他參加的,就是一個博傻遊戲。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">甚麼是博傻遊戲?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「博傻遊戲」是一種有趣的投機策略,它基於「博傻理論」(Greater Fool Theory)。這理論告訴我們一個有趣的事實:人們在資本市場上買賣時,並不在乎資產的真實價值,而是期待找到一個更大的傻瓜,以更高的價格買走這個資產。所以,在博傻遊戲中,關鍵就是要確保自己不是最大的傻瓜。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 博傻遊戲,說穿了就是投機行為,這種「傻瓜贏傻瓜」的策略在股市中被廣泛應用,你可以高價買進股票,等待行情上漲時賣出,這樣就能賺取差價。畢竟,只要你不是最後一個接手的人,你就能獲利。當然,如果沒有更大的傻瓜來接手,你可能會成為最後一個傻瓜。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 那麼,現在的AI投資熱潮是博傻遊戲嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這問題並無意義。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果你擁有自己的投資系統,經過系統性的研究,計算出自己相信的股票真正價值和增長性,進階者再輔以技術指標作為出入市指引,那麼,在任何市況下你都可以算是在投資。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 或者,你看好長遠科技的未來發展,以一籃子ETF形式作被動投資,將其作為投資組合配置的一部份,並定時監察與作出重新平衡(rebalance),那麼,你也可以算是在投資。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 否則,任何市況下,你都是在參與博傻遊戲,無論是基於錯失恐懼症,或是聽信傳媒與專家的推介。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 參加博傻遊戲沒關係,有關係的是,你必須知道自己在參加博傻遊戲,和投資是有分別的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們在這個世界上,做傻子不可怕,做最後一個傻子也不可怕,可怕的是,做了傻子自己還不知道,下次還繼續做,不斷做。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 為何你必須知道辨別自己是否在參與博傻遊戲?因為只有這樣,你才會問自己一些問題,例如:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「博傻值得大額投入嗎?」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「博傻如果輸了,帳面損失有可能以時間回補嗎?」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我經受得起多少不可逆轉的損失?」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我怎麼能確保自己不是最後一個傻子?」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「這次就算贏了,下次呢?」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 「我每次都可以全身而退嗎?」</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> ......</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們可以在能力範圍下適度參與博傻遊戲,安慰自己內心潛在的FOMO情緒,前提是,我們明白,音樂椅遊戲,並不是一種能長遠持續的投資策略。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><div><br /></div>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-16382301528963001772023-06-19T20:00:00.001+08:002023-06-19T20:00:00.148+08:00 封閉式基金ROC的疑惑<p><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> ROC 全寫為 Return of Capital,也就是返還投資本金的意思,這個詞如果出現在封閉式債券基金(Closed-end Bond Fund, Bond CEF),經常令投資者聞虎色變。因為,當封閉型基金出現三大訊號:高槓桿、高溢價、高ROC,代表該基金的風險增加。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-fb9900a5-7fff-ec13-430c-b59ee6fe92a6"><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事實上,CEF有時出現了一些ROC是正常的,因為需要維持穩定的派息,尤其是每月派息的CEF,其持有的債券很難每個月都派出相同數額的利息。所以,在收到利息較少的月份從本金中攤出一部份用來補足派息金額,到了收到的利息較多的月份就補回本金,會計上就會令一些月份有ROC的存在,這種情況是正常的,不需放在心上。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但是,如果你持有的CEF長期派息都含有高比例的ROC就需要留意了,代表基金的確是在用本金來派息。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 退回你投資的本金去維持高息率這回事,說到底不算是甚麼好現象,有人說,ROC的那部份能得到退稅,是優點,這明顯講不通。本來那就是你的本金,你將本金交給基金經理投資,兜個圈又回到你手上,是不是有點除褲放屁?你的本金來自你除稅後的收入,如果兜個圈甚麼也沒做卻要繳交股息稅,會不會太寃了一點?更別說ROC是否永久性地降低了每股的資產淨值,從而降低了未來的盈利能力?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">反常的跡象</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 曾經的高收益債券CEF王者——Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund (GOF),在2019年開始每月出現了相當比例的ROC,一直維持到現在,很多投資者對此極不待見,取而代之的是另一檔熱門的基金PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (PTY)。因為PTY給出的收益率差不多,在帳面上卻沒有ROC。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 奇怪的是,理論上以本金維持派息的GOF應該因資產淨值一直下降,總回報不如沒有ROC的PTY才對,可是我們發現事實不是這樣的,下圖是近三年多以來PTY和GOF的回報比較:</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRGsHumU_EtVB8VsMS19-ShciDRk9TsO7QM0tJ3l34TyvCvHXI8NRf7cpR8C0JozOsSpHed-2MBBYcQ8zRrcGLy2egIX1ziGWLEkg0-T-yfm_hAkXgBbZiYTIDRmYkuAwrCMR6GHvZrFG6ea4rrtddRbhQklptTonEF6FrgmPgs_mn8aOgWqWRqVAWYg/s828/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="828" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRGsHumU_EtVB8VsMS19-ShciDRk9TsO7QM0tJ3l34TyvCvHXI8NRf7cpR8C0JozOsSpHed-2MBBYcQ8zRrcGLy2egIX1ziGWLEkg0-T-yfm_hAkXgBbZiYTIDRmYkuAwrCMR6GHvZrFG6ea4rrtddRbhQklptTonEF6FrgmPgs_mn8aOgWqWRqVAWYg/w400-h333/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 從2020年1月至今,假設沒有將派息再投資,GOF的每年連息收益率為7.47%(股息再投資的年收益率則為8.43%),PTY的每年連息收益率為-1.6%(股息再投資的年收益率則為-1.91%)。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 事實證明,自GOF出現ROC後,無論是3年、2年還是1年的總回報表現,都大幅跑贏沒有ROC的PTY,這是怎麼回事?是PTY的基金經理能力太差嗎?但事實上PTY在同儕中的表現是在平均線之上,以同樣沒有ROC、市值是PTY三倍的同公司基金PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI)為例,其表現比PTY還更差一些。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">令人疑惑的問題</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 這牽涉到另一個問題,在沒有ROC的情況下, PTY現時息率11.4%、槓桿30.54%、溢價15.09%,計算下來所持有的債券平均收益率高達10.05%;PDI現時息率14.58%、槓桿41.25%、溢價4.13%,計算下來所持有的債券平均收益率高達10.75%。這高息率計算還未計及管理費及槓桿費用,也就是所持有的債券平均收益率應該高於此數,是怎麼做到的?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 我們用PTY為例,從CEFDATA網站可以看到,PTY的投資級別債券(BBB或以上)比例高達62.61%,這種級別的債券的收益率應該只在4%至6%之間。其亦持有較高風險的Asset-Backed Security (ABS)與Non-Agency MBS,但比例只有12.5%,並不足以支持這麼高的收益率。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 作為對債券有經驗的投資者,我們知道在沒有ROC的情況下,這樣的組合不可能派出超過10%的收益率,個人猜測有兩個可能的原因:</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">持有債券的價格大跌,令債息率大漲。PTY和PDI的槓桿率皆超過30%,漲跌幅也按比例擴大。但是,FED的快速升息雖然令投資級別債券(尤其是長年期的)價格回落、息率上升,但最多也就是由3%上升至5.5%左右,這種幅度遠不足以支持現在的收益率。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">PTY其實是有ROC的,只不過被基金公司用不知甚麼方法隱藏了起來。</span></p></li></ol><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> ROC的複雜性還在於不同網站顯示出的資料不同,在CEFCONNECT網站,PTY和PDI歷年都沒有ROC,但在CEFDATA網站,兩年前PTY與PDI也曾出現一定比例的ROC。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 不同網站資料的出入,源自於PIMCO官網對ROC的資料沒有如其他基金公司那樣透明和直接,有點諱莫如深,但是我們在年度報表中可以看到PTY於2017年與2021年確曾有過ROC的稅項記錄(Tax Basis Return of Capital):</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIk3yVIimnyetKINIvXhzzpmUZrd0p_ke90FNsFxoOfFEZGgqoBOq3hlGf4FlCaGv-H1lSKzf-R_H-9s4SmJ0U2J43FhERkY_CYeJ7rP36Ij2riVvQyvXrJ_HL6YzULIthBsHu9cCqbXuCV38ZCvc0qsoa88FaO1Ay8uU6taBZx_gZgVXL3lrp2GtEDQ/s916/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="647" data-original-width="916" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIk3yVIimnyetKINIvXhzzpmUZrd0p_ke90FNsFxoOfFEZGgqoBOq3hlGf4FlCaGv-H1lSKzf-R_H-9s4SmJ0U2J43FhERkY_CYeJ7rP36Ij2riVvQyvXrJ_HL6YzULIthBsHu9cCqbXuCV38ZCvc0qsoa88FaO1Ay8uU6taBZx_gZgVXL3lrp2GtEDQ/w400-h283/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 也就是說,PTY和PDI也是有過ROC的,下圖的資料來自CEFDATA網站,是PTY、PDI 與GOF近2年的派息成份表:</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU1WeOSoNr5pW1u68ywiNEF2begNYVhymg-HJtAp4EK6XUZJt68a1PaxS8RqhLVyZWzuSUN6guAM_dHqhHcL4AHwDxnUpT1emBYPE5SKBQxozU_vrppsGPHoxXLqGmADqrClIML4US6zMbC9oukX21Wb5MiybyE0u5qmT1DvEZrPQxtACns4uiFVtuKw/s1060/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1060" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU1WeOSoNr5pW1u68ywiNEF2begNYVhymg-HJtAp4EK6XUZJt68a1PaxS8RqhLVyZWzuSUN6guAM_dHqhHcL4AHwDxnUpT1emBYPE5SKBQxozU_vrppsGPHoxXLqGmADqrClIML4US6zMbC9oukX21Wb5MiybyE0u5qmT1DvEZrPQxtACns4uiFVtuKw/w400-h294/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu712SjLLGe8famPjHjfNj9OLB0Y8d8SQzJgoOph2AlsjTlg8md2MxpNTXnrjj-V-9feSBwfkP7Sa6HgCXsTqGqvTEtMtBP2NFHaFbyyn8CHwphYzXonTbWlFO6woE4K9Muga9HfjTnyYsPj3-avEfGnShP1WAbqvn0WVLaPURd-E8GUVL_v9cU_oiiw/s1071/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="783" data-original-width="1071" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu712SjLLGe8famPjHjfNj9OLB0Y8d8SQzJgoOph2AlsjTlg8md2MxpNTXnrjj-V-9feSBwfkP7Sa6HgCXsTqGqvTEtMtBP2NFHaFbyyn8CHwphYzXonTbWlFO6woE4K9Muga9HfjTnyYsPj3-avEfGnShP1WAbqvn0WVLaPURd-E8GUVL_v9cU_oiiw/w400-h293/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh30b1Nb9Uz0vIupyUR8R0i31RgISYjsDvrSND-khRdIF1LbtfkAkw-q3d9l75lRmpA_zCHyxD_mv6B-hFrTloMq9YwcvbGkNSO8xQ5B0jdTVpp3onb4Vkyz9mocKzZ1-AQI8GsgXXm4kXF3pWN_UouukT067jwfFnkGpt6oTpJ5a34kGmO5GqRce5BMQ/s1085/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="761" data-original-width="1085" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh30b1Nb9Uz0vIupyUR8R0i31RgISYjsDvrSND-khRdIF1LbtfkAkw-q3d9l75lRmpA_zCHyxD_mv6B-hFrTloMq9YwcvbGkNSO8xQ5B0jdTVpp3onb4Vkyz9mocKzZ1-AQI8GsgXXm4kXF3pWN_UouukT067jwfFnkGpt6oTpJ5a34kGmO5GqRce5BMQ/w400-h280/20230513%20-%20%E5%B0%81%E9%96%89%E5%BC%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91ROC%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E6%83%91-5.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 但即使這樣,PTY和PDI的ROC比例也很低,SeekingAlpha網站有</span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4587070-pdi-and-pty-roc-buyer-beware" style="text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">一篇文章</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">,探討了PTY和PDI可能隱藏或掩飾ROC的一些方法。</span></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">掩飾ROC的方法</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 其中一種方法,是使用一種衍生工具,稱為掉期合約(Swap Transactions)。簡單來說,基金從銀行或其他第三方以合約形式借入資金,合約結束後連本帶息歸還,而借入的資金一部份就分派出去成為股息,由於資金借入後要還的,用來派息的這部份實際上就是ROC,但在會計角度還不算是。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 借入的資金在合約期間會有投資,合約期滿後如果投資有利潤,就抵銷了合約期的ROC損失,ROC就可以被隱藏了,神不知鬼不覺。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 如果投資沒有利潤或有損失,理論上ROC應該會在合約期結束後出現,也就是說,在會計報表上ROC被延遲表現了。但對於延遲出現的ROC,可以通過將基金合併的方式(例如之前將PCI、PKO與PDI合併),以未實現資本收益的方法予以消除。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 在PTY的年度報表中,這方面是這樣寫的:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> “It is important to note that differences exist between a Fund’s daily internal accounting records and practices, a Fund’s financial statements presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP, and recordkeeping practices under income tax regulations. For instance, a Fund’s internal accounting records and practices may take into account, among other factors, tax-related characteristics of certain sources of distributions that differ from treatment under U.S. GAAP. Examples of such differences may include, but are not limited to, for certain Funds, the treatment of periodic payments under interest rate swap contracts. Accordingly, among other consequences, it is possible that a Fund may not issue a Section 19 Notice in situations where a Fund’s financial statements prepared later and in accordance with U.S. GAAP and/or the final tax character of those distributions might later report that the sources of those distributions included capital gains and/or a return of capital.”</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">我們應該如何應對</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 個人認為,PIMCO公司在ROC的披露方面至少是比其他基金公司較不透明,是有意識地掩飾ROC的出現,這會對投資者會造成誤導,以為真的有這麼好的事,可以避免ROC之餘又維持高息率,造成不公平的溢價。而對於基金公司而言,掩飾ROC的出現更有助其籌集資金發行新基金</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 話說回來,這並不代表PTY與PDI不是好標的,將GOF與PTY的回報相比較,其實有不恰當的地方,因為兩者的投資策略有所不同,前者的投資主要為高收益債券,後者則主要投資在投資級別標的之上。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 要了解基金過往表現,就要全局去看。我這裡送上一份封閉式債券基金CEF比較表大全,其中包括所有上市債券CEF的類別、槓桿率、收益率、溢折價、高/低於平均表現值、總回報等等,供大家參考比較(僅限Patreon會員)。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 從這份資料,我們可以發現PTY和PDI的回報,以及相對同類型基金的平均表現差(Z-score)雖不如GOF,但也皆在水準之上。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 再次提醒大家,投資沒有公式、沒有定律,大部份時間更像一種藝術。在一般情況下,大家都認為危險的封閉型基金有三大訊號:高槓桿、高溢價、高ROC,但是我們也不可以一本通書看到老。高槓桿,要視乎持有的投資標的及利率環境,當年GOF由相當高的槓桿率減至零,再由零加到現在的接近25%,並不代表其體質由低至高再至低;高溢價,並不是本質的改變,只是基金的市場價格與淨值相比起來貴太多,通常是因為深受投資者喜愛與持續買入追捧所致;高ROC,涉及複雜的計算與會計處理方法,未必能從簡單的數字去判斷。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 因此,當封閉式基金出現高槓桿、高溢價或高ROC時,是應該謹慎對待,不要貿然買入。然而,這種說法也並非百分之百準確,畢竟債券封閉式基金也是一種基金,是投資者想要通過基金經理來間接投資債券的替代方案。基本上,所有基金的運作都像是一個黑盒子,最終還是要依靠基金經理的能力和誠信。世上沒有免費的午餐,也沒有完全透明的基金。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> ......</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 註:Patreon有一系列封閉式基金的分析文章,最近的兩篇對PTY和GOF的進行了深入分析與探討。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">《</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/84185693" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">回復光輝歲月–PTY是時候投資嗎?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》</span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">《</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/84599533" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">失去領袖的王者–GOF還可以投資嗎?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">》</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">******************************************************</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-33085740113350999162023-06-05T20:00:00.007+08:002023-06-07T19:03:26.359+08:00 IB二三事 – 無風險賺錢與資產保障<p><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 之前有一篇文章「</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/82596073" style="text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">IB二三事–窮人私銀的代價</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">」頗受歡迎,但從一些留言和私訊得知,有些朋友可能沒留意或不知道一些和己身有密切關係的賺錢和安全資訊,今天就聊聊這話題,聊的都是一些基本知識,如果你是IB的熟練用戶,倒是可以跳過。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-1576bf10-7fff-ad9a-381d-c3f8c46d8677"><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">IB的現金利息</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 大家都知道,放在IB的餘額現金可以收取利息,由於可隨時取用,靈活性相當於銀行的活期存款。IB利息的計算是以該貨幣的某參考基準利率減去一個百份比,以美元為例,IB利息的基準利率(BM)參考是聯邦基金有效利率(隔夜利率),IBKR PRO支付的現金利率為BM – 0.5,執筆之日實質的利率為年息4.58%。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXp_xP46QFiycgGEYG-KQS_40oWjp0xgmyHYzRuKyC8Xm2uh1gUZrE0fboVtZT4hHoZojkECtfT1nwjX6X9Zfmq9UTpk4po4NdkREdzmYh9JGlwG-pNd3Yv0VgehO_CQFl2o8_1olFTm0h7PTpFSj_iDFF5u23O2hMmAknj-sRJhw_LaSNnw86rI6Hww/s1133/20230522%20-%20IB%E4%BA%8C%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%8B%20-%20%E7%84%A1%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA%E8%B3%BA%E9%8C%A2%E8%88%87%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E4%BF%9D%E9%9A%9C-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="163" data-original-width="1133" height="58" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXp_xP46QFiycgGEYG-KQS_40oWjp0xgmyHYzRuKyC8Xm2uh1gUZrE0fboVtZT4hHoZojkECtfT1nwjX6X9Zfmq9UTpk4po4NdkREdzmYh9JGlwG-pNd3Yv0VgehO_CQFl2o8_1olFTm0h7PTpFSj_iDFF5u23O2hMmAknj-sRJhw_LaSNnw86rI6Hww/w400-h58/20230522%20-%20IB%E4%BA%8C%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%8B%20-%20%E7%84%A1%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA%E8%B3%BA%E9%8C%A2%E8%88%87%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E4%BF%9D%E9%9A%9C-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> IB的利率經常轉變,我們可以從以下的網頁獲取最新的利息和融資資訊:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><a href="https://www.interactivebrokers.com.hk/cn/index.php?f=2365" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.interactivebrokers.com.hk/cn/index.php?f=2365</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 大家也許都知道,放在IB的頭1萬美元是不計息的,1萬美元以上才開始以4.58%的利率計息。但是,你可能不知道的是,如果放在IB的淨資產價值未達10萬美元(或等值),那麼你的1萬美元以上的現金,是拿不到4.58%利息的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 所謂淨資產,即戶口內所有證券、期貨、商品、現金等所有資產減去借貸的淨清算價值。如果你的戶口淨清算價值低於10萬美元,1萬美元以上的那些現金,就只能按10萬美元的比例來計算利息。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 舉個例子,假設你的現金餘額為2萬美元,沒有其他投資,淨清算價值也是2萬美元,比例就是10萬美元的20%(20,000 / 100,000)。如此一來,你的頭1萬美元沒有利息外,次1萬美元也只能取得4.58%利息的20%,即0.916%(4.58% x 20%)。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> IB的利息和融券網頁提供了計算工具,我們可以直接輸入現金餘額與淨資產價值,即可獲知應得的現金利息。如下圖所示:</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy50dm5plN9g60sp2qWmY6hqHr45hkCzSNVpV0jMALNJ5lskBwdsWFaqIKJdUT8W2tA2CBpjaLCp-PHWw-EEk4z52GoukrOX-DU7t88Fni4c0yGBdepP-U1Znbo2hbaF9Xpds9wz_GxtctF4AaUusTTjXrLP1WG9kp-Bg93UAx94xcwcMo5Zx2BmSdqA/s1093/20230522%20-%20IB%E4%BA%8C%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%8B%20-%20%E7%84%A1%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA%E8%B3%BA%E9%8C%A2%E8%88%87%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E4%BF%9D%E9%9A%9C-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="706" data-original-width="1093" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy50dm5plN9g60sp2qWmY6hqHr45hkCzSNVpV0jMALNJ5lskBwdsWFaqIKJdUT8W2tA2CBpjaLCp-PHWw-EEk4z52GoukrOX-DU7t88Fni4c0yGBdepP-U1Znbo2hbaF9Xpds9wz_GxtctF4AaUusTTjXrLP1WG9kp-Bg93UAx94xcwcMo5Zx2BmSdqA/w400-h259/20230522%20-%20IB%E4%BA%8C%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%8B%20-%20%E7%84%A1%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA%E8%B3%BA%E9%8C%A2%E8%88%87%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E4%BF%9D%E9%9A%9C-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> IB的戶口分為IBKR PRO與IBKR Lite兩種版本,大多數人都屬於前者,後者現只適用於美國本土稅務居民,不必理會。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 除了美元,如果你在IB有其他貨幣的現金餘額,也會獲得相應的利息,例如港幣曾可得到3.991%的年利率(存款的78,000以上),比銀行的定期存款利息更佳。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 美元和港元不是利息最高的貨幣,利息給得最高的貨幣是匈牙利幣,高達14.253%(即不計匯價風險的話,甚麼都不做每年就是超過14%的收益率),其次是墨西哥披索的8.23%與南非幣的7.033%,當然這些貨幣的風險波動性可不是人人可以承受得了的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 聊起現金,許多投資者都有「現金恐懼症」,即一持有現金就全身不舒服,好像現金會咬到手似的,總想盡快投資出去。這心理的源頭,大抵是受到主流傳媒「不投資就跑輸通脹」的長期荼毒所致。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 事實上,現金在資產配置上佔了一個很重要的地位,我們根本不應該將現金和投資分開。因為現金也是資產的一種,持有現金也是投資,和其他低收益/零收益類資產,例如黃金、國債等,並沒有本質上的分別。現金可能在大部份時間跑輸通脹,卻不代表在資產配置上沒有緩解波幅與對沖作用,不論你是只敢持有100%現金、或恐懼持有任何現金,都是不健康的心態。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">IB的資產保障</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 關於IB的資產安全性,我很早前已寫過多篇文章論述,無奈這似乎是萬年爭議的話題。對IB沒信心的人,怎麼解釋都不會有信心,而且他們總喜歡將美國公司倒閉事件或遺產問題與IB的資產安全混在一塊來爭論。也許在這些人的心中,資產只應該放在銀行或家中牀板下,其他任何地方都不會安全。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 所有人都知道,IB LLC 的客戶證券賬戶受到美國證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的保護,最高保額為 50萬美元(現金額度25萬美元)。此外,IB LLC 亦與 Lloyd's of London 的某些承銷商簽訂了超額 SIPC 保單,該保單將每個賬戶 的承保範圍額外擴大了3,000 萬美元(現金額度90萬美元),總限額為 1.5 億美元,涵蓋了除期貨和期貨期權之外的帳戶所有資產。留意此保險是針對證券商倒閉提供的保護,並不是用來保障投資或交易損失。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> IB LLC的香港分號,IB HK的帳戶,首先是受到香港投資者賠償基金的50萬港元的保障,但這50萬港元保障只限於港元、港股和A股的證券與期貨。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> IB HK帳戶是否同時受SIPC的50萬美元保護?這裡面有模糊地帶。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 因為IB HK的帳戶資產是與IB LLC的資產放在一起的,近年有一些網友直接詢問過IB客服,答覆是SIPC同時保障到IB HK的帳戶,我暫時未能在IB網站上找到相關資料。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 事實上,SIPC保障用到的機會相當低,因為證券商和銀行性質不同。你將錢存入銀行,那些錢就屬於銀行,銀行可以自由將其挪用,當銀行破產時,你成為債權人。相反,證券商只是一個中介人,你投資的股票、證券或任何現金,在名義上都是屬於你而非證券商,因此理論上客戶的帳戶是和證券商完全隔離的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 也就是說,證券商任何破產的成本和負債(例如支付債權人、僱員、法律成本等等)都和你沒有任何一毛錢關係。證券商如果倒閉,你唯一成本,就是要考慮將資產轉移去哪里、以及相關的轉移成本,除非證券商非法挪用了你帳戶內的資產。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 凡事都有但書,如果你的帳戶屬於保證金戶口,整件事就會較為複雜,因為這相當於你和IB簽署了質押協議,授給了IB運用你的證券的一些權利,類似於將資產抵押予IB取得貸款那種。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">受保銀行存款轉存計劃(Insured Bank Deposit Sweep Program)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 受保銀行存款轉存計畫(Insured Bank Deposit Sweep Program)是IB去年推出的新計劃,近日有些合資格的朋友已經陸續收到IB電郵的介紹。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這計劃其實是補充SIPC的現金保障額度只有25萬美元的限制,如果你的美元現金餘額超過25萬美元,參加此計劃就能額外獲得高達250萬美元的聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC)保險,即總現金保險覆蓋達到275萬美元。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這方法是利用了每家美國銀行都擁有FDIC的25萬美元存款保障,做法是,每天IB會將每位參與計劃之客戶的閒置現金餘額劃轉到一家或多家銀行,每家銀行最多246,500美元,以此獲取利息並控制在FDIC的承保範圍之內。超過275萬美元的現金餘額仍保留在IB內,繼續由IB的其他保險措施保護。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 此計劃適用於所有美國和外國的個人帳戶、聯名帳戶(僅限50/50所有權)、IRA和公司證券帳戶,最低美元現金餘額需超過25萬美元。計劃並不影響任何帳戶應得利息、功能或交易權限,純粹就是增高現金的保障範圍。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 符合條件的客戶可以登入IB的網頁版帳戶管理主頁,點擊右上角的頭肩圖示,再點選「設置」,就可以在「帳戶配置」內見到「受保銀行存款轉存計劃」的配置選項。</span></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNbQRaik9krK_1Ii57ERDU2xNS43y65S3t26-khp_gJ_GFw12VlBfZOeN0V2dsPrYd6eTBpqw3rTJeVCiiaO4MYT5NmZGCvExOCnY8tFT37J7LPID4Xk2DToStGYI-YK8ubl8vhD2Ll1C0pux3Hlm1ldA-HHjnxURdtqfdAAZ3YAgZBi_4_xR3sk-bYg/s1650/20230522%20-%20IB%E4%BA%8C%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%8B%20-%20%E7%84%A1%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA%E8%B3%BA%E9%8C%A2%E8%88%87%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E4%BF%9D%E9%9A%9C-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1650" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNbQRaik9krK_1Ii57ERDU2xNS43y65S3t26-khp_gJ_GFw12VlBfZOeN0V2dsPrYd6eTBpqw3rTJeVCiiaO4MYT5NmZGCvExOCnY8tFT37J7LPID4Xk2DToStGYI-YK8ubl8vhD2Ll1C0pux3Hlm1ldA-HHjnxURdtqfdAAZ3YAgZBi_4_xR3sk-bYg/w400-h194/20230522%20-%20IB%E4%BA%8C%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%8B%20-%20%E7%84%A1%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA%E8%B3%BA%E9%8C%A2%E8%88%87%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E4%BF%9D%E9%9A%9C-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 點擊該選項後,就可閱讀說明並選擇參加計劃,你還可以選擇退出不希望轉入的任何個別銀行。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 留意,如果你在帳戶配置內找不到此選項,代表你的帳戶並不具備參與資格(例如現金餘額未超過25萬美元)。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">股票收益提升計劃(Stock Yield Enhancement Program)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 最後,順便聊聊很多人都有開通的IB股票收益提升計劃(Stock Yield Enhancement Program),這計劃是允許你將持有的證券出借給其他交易者,然後和IB對分出借證券所得的利息收入(各佔50%)。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 參加方法,同樣是登入IB的網頁版帳戶管理主頁,點擊右上角的頭肩圖示,再點選「設置」,就可以在「交易」內見到「股票收益提升計劃」的配置選項。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 雖然名稱是「股票收益提升計劃」,其實不止股票,債券也同樣可以出借。借入者通常是想沽空股票或債券的投資者,他們沽空前,必須借入股票或債券並支付利息,這利息就成為我們和IB收入的來源。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 如果你持有的標的剛好是熱門的沽空目標,融券利率可達10%以上,等於無本生利,甚麼也不做就增加了5%收益。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 台灣的證券商也有類似的計劃,但台灣證券商在出借證券後,那標的在你的戶口結餘中會消失掉,如要沽出該標的,必須先申請歸還。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> IB這類國外券商做得很好的地方是,證券被借出並不影響戶口結餘,也不影響我們隨時沽出,不會造成任何限制。所有證券的借出和歸還過程,對客戶來說是完全沒有存在感的,你甚至要特地去列印每月/每日報表才知道甚麼標的曾被出借過。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 有些人可能會擔心,參加此計劃等於助長沽空機構的沽空行為,造成股價的壓力。我的看法是,撇除惡意沽空,一買一沽是兩方面的配對交易,不管是先買後沽還是先沽後買,本質都一樣。沽空對流通性很有幫助,而流通性對交易市場來說,才是最重要的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">結語</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 不少人對IB限制純外匯兌換的手法表示不滿,公平些來說,IB一直都不是兌換貨幣平台,而是專業投資平台,真正專業的投資人,不會只拿IB來兌換貨幣,也不會覺得IB介面不友善。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 作為專業投資平台,IB在很大程度上提供了相當多的便利和「著數」,包括廣泛的投資選擇、相當低的融資貸款、相當高的現金利息、透明而無負擔的借券收入、足夠高的戶口保障等等,難怪獲得「窮人私銀」的名號。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 更重要的是,與真正的私人銀行相比,後者靠的是客戶經理的質素,客戶經理可能良莠不齊,可能不斷推銷不同的理財產品,可能推介你去購買Accumulator或CS AT1債券,如果你對金融產品不熟悉,一不小心可能就會中招。IB的操作則全靠你自己去摸索、去了解,在稍高的技術門檻下,你不得不步步為營,這樣也許、或許、或者、可能、有機會可以令你在投資時,少踩一點真正的坑。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 最後的最後,還是要再次重申,如果您對IB有任何投訴、或發現帳戶有問題、或操作IB平台有疑問,最好先去聯絡IB客服,IB網站也提供了大量教學課程。我不是IB客服,更不是IB代言人,我與IB唯一的關係和大家一樣,只是IB的一名普通用戶。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">附:會員問答</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 問:想請問IB是如何做到比其他券商(甚至銀行定期)提供更高息率比客戶呢?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 答:是這樣的,IB將大多數客戶資金(截至 2023 年 3 月 10 日約為 92%)投資於短期美國國債和逆回購協議,賺取中間的息差。現在的短期美國國債收益比公司債還高,才可以給予這息率,但這息率是隨時變化的。另外,頭一萬美元無息及低於10萬美元給低息,其實已佔了很大的資金比重。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 問:我還是不太明白,風兄說過IB會將客戶的錢隔離,既然隔離,為何還可以把92%的客戶資金拿去買短期美國國債和逆回購協議?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 答:所謂隔離,即將客戶資金與IB資產完全分開,放在零風險或接近零風險而提取又靈活的地方。接下來將問題交回給你,為何你認為零風險或接近零風險,就只限放在銀行?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(節錄自之前Patreon文章及留言問答,資訊包括利率資料並不更新)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><br /><div><br /></div>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-38397257447746574912023-05-18T20:00:00.001+08:002023-05-18T20:00:00.141+08:00 閒聊一下,如何成為成功的人?<p><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 不久前,我無意間看到熱門Youtube頻道「</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzIfQ5_gYzc" style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">老高與小茉</a><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;">」(熱門度是華語Youtube頻道的首三位)內有一條影片,內容是探討成功和能力之間的關係,結論大約是,一個人成功與否,純粹是由運氣決定,與能力毫無關係。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-5c54a4f7-7fff-c2a8-b1e7-9414a901c888"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 結論主要建基於一個以Agent-Based Model(ABM)而設立的模擬社會運作研究。簡單來說,該研究模擬有1000個小人,以社會常態分佈每人都賦予一個能力值(社會常態是能力值在中間範圍的人佔大多數),然後模擬每個小人掙錢40年。在這40年間,有250個幸運綠點和250個不幸綠點在隨機移動,當每個小人碰到綠點就有機會將財產翻一倍,代表遇上了好事,能力愈高,翻倍機率愈高;相反當每個小人碰到紅點,無論能力高低,都會損失一半財產,代表遇上了災難或意外。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 研究最後的結果顯示,賺錢最多的人,並不是能力最好的人,而是遇到綠點最多、紅點最少的人;賺錢最少的人,也不是能力最差的人,而是遇到紅點最多、綠點最少的人。最後財富的分佈圖也不是能力愈高的人財產愈多,而是常態分佈,即最多的富豪存在於中間偏右的能力位置。這結果表示,你賺到多少錢,純粹就是機會率問題,能力的高低沒有發揮任何作用!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 影片一出,大受歡迎,堪稱是一劑心靈鴉片,看底下的留言,極多人得到了精神安慰。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 如果你觀看此影片後的感覺,只是覺得真是太爽了,科學都證明了自己的失敗全因運氣不好,與自己無關,你倍覺老懷安慰——坦白說,你真的注定了終生就是一個失敗者!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 因為,這研究有很高的片面性,與現實並不相似,咱們就以此為引,聊聊這方面的課題。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">何謂成功</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 首先,我們必需先定義何謂「成功」?或何謂「成功的人」?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 在ABM的模擬世界中,財產多寡代表了成功高低,這是為了統一研究結果而假設的前題,無可厚非,但我們都知道在現實世界中,「財產」並不代表成功,最多只算是其中一種世俗標準。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 個人認為,「成功」的定義應該是「做到自己想做的事情」、「達到自己的目標」。你想做的事可以有無限種類,例如想賺到一百萬、想成為一家公司的老闆、想升職加薪、想得到他人尊重、想成為暢銷書作家、想成功移民、想成功追到一個女人……目標無關大小、性質,只要不是異想天開或天馬行空,你做到了就已算是「成功」。關鍵是,你做的這事真的是你的追求、你真正想去做的,而不是迫於無奈去做,或別人洗你腦後你自以為想要的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 一個人達成了他的目標謂之「成功」,即使未成功,如果正用實際行動走在達成目標的道路上,我也會視之為「成功的人」,重點是「實際行動」,而不是「空想」。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ABM研究的漏洞</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> ABM模擬社會的運作將財產作為成功與否的準則,那不是問題,問題是,現實中不幸與幸運的因子並不是如模擬那樣平均分佈的,這一點錯了,研究結果也肯定是錯的。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 其中最大的漏洞是,將資產突然減半的機率與其他所有的好機率(即資產翻倍由零至100%的機率)相等,那代表了甚麼?代表超大災難在你身上會頻繁發生。事實上,在一般人的世界中,極端的意外或災難(例如重大的傷病、意外或破產)並不會頻繁發生,人天生有迴避高風險的本能,除非你不斷故意去做一些無意義的高風險動作。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 相反,最頻繁在你身邊出現的,是那些可能直接或間接令你的財產增加幅度由零至100%的機會,例如,學懂一門技能、認識一位貴人、發現一份更好的工作、負責一項重要的Project,甚至閱讀到一本好書等等……這些機會也許最後令你失望(運氣不好)、也許最後獲益不多,但最多也只是沒有令你的財產增加,而不是損失。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 重點來了,如果我們運氣比別人差,那麼如何才能增加成功機會?就是儘量接近這種有助達到目標的大大小小的機會,以數量來補足其機率。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 在「老高與小茉」的影片中也提到這點,但其主張迴避壞機率、迎合好機率,這就明顯互相矛盾,因為假如我們逃避紅點,同時也就失去了遇上更多數量綠點的機會,就像我們為了避免發生交通意外而不去開車,但不懂開車,同時也就失去了利用開車這技能賺取更多收入的機會。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 毒男式魯蛇為何會感情失敗,甚至一生都沒有接觸過女人?因為他們太害怕被女人拒絕,寧願封鎖自己在網路世界,完全失去了接觸女人的機會。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 現實中,綠點出現的機率遠高於帶來極端性災難的紅點,可是現在受高等教育程度的人愈來愈多,只看到紅點的人反而愈來愈多,不願意衝出舒適圈的人也就愈來愈多。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 有些人一聽到衝出舒適圈就渾身不舒服,隨之而來的是極恐怖的聯想,這其實是誤解。衝出舒適圈,並不是叫你放棄一切,更多的是逐步嘗試,例如你想創業,你不用一開始就辭職然後將所有財產拿去創業「搏一鋪」,你可以在工餘時間先利用網路以小部份資金嘗試,慢慢探索可行性,累積經驗,試得多了,成功的機會自然大增。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 成功雖然很吃運氣,但能力也有影響,只不過這能力並不是指智力、學識或金錢,而是敢於嘗試、敢於行動、敢於堅持的執行力,這就是「自古成功在嘗試」的道理。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 失敗的人和成功的人有一個非常明顯的性格差別:前者想多過做,計劃多過行動,總是以避險為藉口掩飾不敢動作的懦弱;後者知行合一,通過行動和實戰不斷調整自己的策略和方向,始終走在追求的道路上。</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">如何成為成功的人</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 有些人會說,你說得倒容易,但我有很多負擔、很多苦衷、很多隱情,我沒有的更多,我沒有時間、沒有精神、沒有條件去闖,你根本就不理解!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 是的,對於寧願想一千個藉口去逃避、也不願意去想一個理由行動的人,我是很不理解,也不大想去理解。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 我不否認運氣遠比天賦更加重要,在成功的道路上,運氣確佔了大部份因素,但我同時亦在「一命二運三風水」這篇文章中闡述過「謀事在人、成事在天」的道理。關鍵是,我們如何通過不斷的嘗試,在一定程度上彌補運氣的不足,也許我們嘗試後還是不能成功,但只要肯嘗試,就有成功的機會,不去嘗試,就一定失敗!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 留意,我指的是「不斷嘗試」,並非「不斷賭博」,更非「不斷空想」。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 此外,如果想進一步提高成功的機會,還可以使用排除法,因為成功者與失敗者擁有各自獨特的性格,如果我們遠離失敗者擁有的特質,培養成功者擁有的特質,自然有助提升我們成功的機會。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這些特質包括但不限於:</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者重視結果;成功者重視體驗。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者更喜歡擁有物質;成功者更享受過程。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者凡事追求別人的認同;成功者凡事追隨自己的目標。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者的平淡,是害怕往外闖的藉口;成功者的平淡,是過盡千帆後的選擇。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者永遠想多過做,計劃多於行動;成功者永遠知行合一,坐言起行。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者凡事都覺得未準備好,還要再想一想;成功者制定初步計劃就立即行動,在實戰中慢慢調節策略。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者對待失敗,永遠找到一大堆藉口,認為是外界因素令其難以成功;成功者對待失敗,認為辦法總比問題多,思考如何克服不利因素。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者看待成功人仕,習慣酸言酸語,只看到對方短處,認為對方只是天生條件佳、運氣好;成功者看待成功人仕,習慣觀察對方的長處,從中學習成功的要素。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">失敗者習慣將成功歸於自己,失敗歸於外界;成功者沒有這種區分,他們只習慣去思考如何解決問題。</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: -18pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">有宗教信仰的失敗者,是在失敗和逆境時「交給神」,然後心安理得地覺得一切失敗都是「神的安排」(他們的神好慘,天天都要「食死貓」);有宗教信仰的成功者,是在成功和順境時「交給神」,覺得一切成功都是「神的恩典」。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> ......</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有網友文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><br /><br />風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-18127876710077122972023-05-03T15:23:00.001+08:002023-05-03T15:24:30.368+08:00 寶馬事件透視出的兩種中國人心態<p><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 波特王名句:「人生逃不過三件事,出生、辱華、往生!」</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-621ba356-7fff-f840-d1a6-a8768c3dc627"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 近日最熱火的辱華事件,莫過於「寶馬冰淇淋」事件了,起因是在上海車展時,車商寶馬(BMW)MINI的工作人員,被拍攝到面對中國客戶索要冰淇淋(雪糕)時說已經發完了,但外國人前來時卻熱情發放,還細心教導如何食用。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 不意外的,事件迅速地在中國網路上發酵,寶馬被痛罵為「辱華」、「種族歧視」、「崇洋媚外」,事發後車商緊急道歉,然後不意外的,令事件更加火上燒油。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這裡我不屑去討論中國小粉紅們那不可理喻的邏輯、智商和玻璃心,只想聊聊這事件背後流露出的兩款中國人普遍心態。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span> 首先,為何發生在全球的任何事件,只要牽涉到中國人和外國人,就一定上升到「侮華」、「種族歧視」的層面?<p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 種族歧視的指責在外國人身上也是會被激發的,尤其在美歐的左膠圈子。想像一下在美國,如果你發冰淇淋,見到黑人不給,見到白人就給,的確會引起種族歧視的討論。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 根源是,在美國的傳統的觀念,黑人是弱勢群體,這一點黑人知道、白人知道、全球都知道。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 如果你相反,只給黑人冰淇淋不給白人,或者只給一個白人冰淇淋不給另一個白人,是不會引起種族歧視誤會的。因為拿不到冰淇淋的那個白人,雖然也不會高興,但最多只是感覺自己被忽視了,不會聯想到甚麼侮辱和種族歧視之類。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 那麼問題來了,在這個到處叫囂強國崛起的中國戰狼時代,冰淇淋事件發生在中國,派發冰淇淋的女孩也是中國人,在自己的地頭,中國人理應是強勢群體,怎麼可能會攀上侮辱、歧視之類的?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 唯一的理由,就是在普遍中國人的意識中,自己對著外國人就是低人一等,就是低等民族,也就是自卑心態使然。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 中國對洋人的自卑心理,其實眾所週知,只要在中國生活過一段時間,就一定知道「崇洋媚外」在中國根本就是常態。普遍的中國女人,對洋人更是毫無抵抗能力,有兩句極為市井粗俗的話形容這個現象:「中國女人一見到洋人就濕」、「中國女人最喜歡吃洋腸」。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 在中國,不止是金髮碧眼的洋人受歡迎,就連譚德塞那類黑不溜偢、好像永遠髒兮兮的非洲黑人,地位也遠比一般中國人強。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 對於那些在思想上還拖著清朝小辮子的中國糞青糞中來說,被自己的中國女人歧視自然是恨得牙癢癢的,但別看他們天天在網路上跺著腳戟指大罵,在現實中,他們對著洋人可是不敢吭一聲的,只能藉一些事件發泄在自家人身上。因此,在中國的反日反美大運動中,受傷的是中國人,砸的是中國人買的車,直接損失的是中國人的財物。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 在這個國家,愈缺乏的東西就愈要強調,例如,「不准隨處大小便」表示很多人是在隨地大小便,「增強民族自信」表示這個民族一點自信都沒有……</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 接下來聊聊第二種心態。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 在寶馬的道歉聲明中澄清了事件的真相:當日派發給客戶的幾百份免費冰淇淋確實送完了,前台小姐沒有說謊,留下的幾十份是給員工的,而那個來要冰淇淋的外國人,是戴著寶馬的工作人員名牌。換句話說,給他冰淇淋並非因為他是外國人,而是因為他是寶馬的員工,人家吃的是員工內部的冰淇淋。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這解釋看似合情合理,對嗎?不過,這樣的解釋反而火上澆油,更燃起中國人的怒火,為甚麼?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 因為,在中國人的心目中,你寶馬一個賣車的,就是來伺候我的,怎麼還敢來跟我講道理?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 因為,普遍中國人的心態,壓根就沒有「公平貿易」這回事。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 你寶馬進來中國做生意,就是要賺我的錢,是你有求於我,你既然得罪了我,第一時間要做的,是出來跪舔磕頭兼狂扇自己的耳光,你還非要解釋?你解釋什麼?難道你想告訴我,是大爺我錯了?!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 所以,我們必須理解,中國人認為任何交易,不是我求你,就是你求我,求人者必須滿臉堆笑、唯唯諾諾,被求者必然趾高氣揚、頤指氣使。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 所以,我們必須理解,中國人認為你寶馬賣得這麼貴、賺這麼多錢,別說客戶要吃個冰淇淋,就算客戶要在你嘴裡撒泡尿,你也得立刻咽下去。還不明白的話,寶馬應該先自己撒泡尿照照。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 高啟強說,在我的地盤,法定的規則和我自己的規則,有分別嗎?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 對,中國人認為貿易沒有「雙贏」,只有一邊佔了另一邊便宜。他們讓你賺錢,他們當然就是你的恩主,儘管事實上並沒有人持著槍逼著他們購物,嚷得最大聲、姿態最兇狠的也未必是購物者。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 但是,中國的紅線永遠是浮動的,中國人這種「我給你賺錢就是你恩主」的心態也非一成不變,你來賺他們的錢,你固然要跪,他們將受污染的東江水以貴數倍的價格賣給香港人,香港人也一樣要跪下,謝主隆恩!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 換句話說,你賣東西給中國,中國是你的恩主;你向中國買東西,中國還是你的恩主。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 中國又贏!!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(完)</span></p><div><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: arial;">******************************************************</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有會員文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Patreon: </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><br />風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-20573847583097008342023-04-19T20:00:00.001+08:002023-04-19T20:00:00.189+08:00財務自由後的風險(續)<p><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 今天我們繼續聊聊財務自由或退休後的風險,這次討論的主要是非財務方面的風險。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-b8b9d95e-7fff-59c7-6db8-9ca96df70aac"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">心理風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">相對於財務風險,其實心理風險才是退休所面對的最大潛在風險,退休後情緒憂鬱或不安迷茫的數目,遠遠多過我們想像。我想主要的原因之一,是這些退休者失去了生活目標!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">你知道在監獄中,對犯人最大的精神懲罰是甚麼嗎?不是單獨囚禁、不是做苦工、也不是辱罵,而是懲罰犯人去做一些毫無意義、沒有目標、毫無成就、怎樣努力都不會有任何滿足感的工作,例如,強迫他們天天將一大堆磚頭從左邊搬到右邊,再從右邊搬到左邊。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">這也是希臘神話中薛西弗斯遭受到眾神施與的最嚴厲懲罰,他永遠要推一顆大石頭上山,每當汗流浹背地將石頭推上山頂,石頭就會滾落山底,接著他必須走回山腳下,再一次將石頭推上山。週而復始,不斷循環。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">雖然很多人以為人生沒有目標,還是可以活得好好的,但事實上以人的天性,真正的快樂,來自於全心全意進行自己喜歡的活動時的忘我「沉浸感」,以及完成目標後帶來的滿足感。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">吃喝玩樂是享受,享受也會帶來快樂,但這種快樂是短暫的,很快會因習慣而失去。追求目標才是人類的快樂來源,無論這目標看來多麼渺小、多麼微薄、或多麼不像目標——享受一頓早餐、完成一次旅行、做出一個蛋糕、追求一個女孩……</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">有人以為,退休的目標就是天天睡到自然醒,然後無所事事地悠閒渡日——那並不是生活目標,這種日子在剛退休時可能覺得很爽,但3個月後,大部份人就會感到折磨。沒有生活目標的退休日子,就像在接受薛西弗斯式懲罰,很快會成為噩夢。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">如果你除了工作竟找不到生活目標,這很可悲,代表你是典型的「社畜」。為避免退休後失去方向和目的感,我建議在退休之前最好盡快找到生活目標,退休後你才能透過這些目標繼續保持對生活的熱情和動力,這是非常重要的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">對很多人來說,尋找生活目標不是一件容易的事,有些人可能永遠無法明確自己的目標,而有些人則有多重目標和興趣,不管哪種情況,都需要花費時間和精力去找。我認為不必將生活目標看得過於宏大和長遠,甚麼維護世界和平、促進人類發展等等,那些不是目標是唬爛。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">生活目標可以是短期的,掌握一門有興趣的技能、完成一本書籍的寫作、達成某項考試的成績等等,都可以是生活目標。目標可以短期,完成一項再追求下一項,積短期成長為長期。但在同一時間內,我建議目標不要貪多,一至兩項為主即可,這樣可以令你的生活有重心。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">有一些方法可以幫助我們找到生活目標,例如參加興趣小組、閱讀自我發展書籍、學習新技能、結識新朋友、出外旅遊等等,可以幫助我們更好地定位自己的生活方向,並確定我們要在未來實現的目標和夢想,</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">除了缺乏生活目標外,心理風險還包括退休後可能感到的孤獨和沮喪。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">這種感覺大多來自於失去上班的目的感和社交圈子,因此感到寂靜、孤寂、無助與缺乏動力。想減輕這種風險,建議退休前與家人和朋友保持聯繫,並持續參加社交活動,不斷挑戰自己,保持自我成長。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">配偶風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">配偶是法律與經濟上的生命共同體,但其風險卻多數被忽視,因為大多數人都不願在這方面想像不好的狀況。事實上,配偶風險是一個亟需要務實規劃的風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">配偶風險包括多方面,首先是情感困境。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">許多人可能沒想到,退休後日夕相處的生活與以前各自上班、假日才在一起大有不同,可能會讓配偶們的情感關係發生變化,出現矛盾、衝突、甚至是分離和離婚的情況。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">這不是虛言恫嚇,而是真實發生在我週圍的實例,當兩人退休後生活在一起,可能發現雙方的興趣和生活方式有所不同,導致關係的緊張和不和諧(這是客氣說法,現實是家嘈屋閉、家宅不寧、家無寧日)。這些情況會對退休生活帶來極大的影響和困擾,甚至會導致精神上的創傷和傷痛。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">要避免情感困境,我們在提前規劃退休生活時,需確保配偶也能參與其中。另一半是繼續工作還是一同退休?大家的共同興趣是甚麼?旅遊、閱讀、健身等活動是否一起參與?可以一起積極開展社交活動、增擴人際網絡嗎?是否要給予對方一些空間?甚麼活動一起參與,甚麼活動分開進行?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">換言之,就是配偶雙方保持良好的共識和溝通,一起尋找新的目標和興趣,共同努力建立新的社交圈,這樣除保持身心健康外也有助於緩解社交孤獨的問題。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">另一類風險是配偶的財務風險,例如另一半有沒有借款?萬一有什麼意外,會不會變成自己要獨挑的負擔?這種情況之下,保險是較好的轉嫁風險的工具,決定退休之前需與配偶商量好保險的規劃。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">配偶的死亡是一個重大變化,可能伴隨著經濟風險和挑戰,例如一些收入(例如社會保障福利或養老金)會在配偶去世後停止發放,或者尚存的配偶可能無能力或不願意管理財務。因此,決定退休的人保有獨立的經濟能力,最好是不靠配偶也能過日子才去退休,這樣除了保護自己之外,經濟上的平等對於維持婚姻也是一項健康的正面因素。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">對於沒有能力理財的配偶,購買年金是其中一個可行辦法,但最好的辦法還是提高對方的獨立理財能力。此外,遺囑和遺產規劃是為未亡配偶或伴侶提供財產的重要工具。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">家庭風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">家庭風險是配偶風險外另一項很多人忽略的風險因素。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">有些費用可能在規劃退休時你根本沒有想過,卻在退休後突然冒出來,例如兒女突然因某些原因欠下大筆債項、親人突患疾病需大額醫療費用、老爸亂開車造成別人的死傷…….更高的可能性是,成年子女想買樓、進修、創業而希望父母支持等等。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">這方面最困難的是「親情」考慮,退休者往往在家庭成員有需要時心軟而提供經濟支持,這種支持更可能從一次性演變成持續性,從而完全打亂了退休的經濟規劃。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">要應對家庭風險,家庭成員的醫療保險必不可少外,退休前的良好溝通更為重要。尤其在財務資源方面的期望,坦誠的溝通有助於最大限度地減少未來的衝突。事先清楚向家庭成員劃下財政資源的底線和期望,退休後切實並鐵實心腸地執行,是不二之法。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">時刻銘記,成年人必須承擔自己的責任,就算親如子女,也沒有任何人應該依賴別人支持的道理。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">政策風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">這裡指的是公共政策的變化帶來的退休福利改變,如果你有部份退休收入是依靠公共福利制度,就要小心保持財務緩衝,因為公共政策不是個人可管理或可預測的,規劃起來很困難。在台灣這可能是勞保和國民年金,在香港可能是長者生活津貼或「生果金」,</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我的建議是盡量不要將主要的退休收入依靠在退休福利上,除非你是政府公務員的「長俸制」。如果拿的是台灣的勞保和國民年金,鑑於台灣勞保的財務問題,在試算的時候不要滿額計算,打個折只算六七成就好。至於香港長者生果金,根本不必計算在收入內,那只是一點零用錢罷了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">戰爭風險</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">在以前,相信沒甚麼人會想過戰爭這回事,但是現在,以某強國無底線的胡作非為,戰爭成為不可不考慮的風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我相信台海一旦宣佈開戰,很大概率並不是大多數人想像的那樣立即進入熱戰階段,例如甚麼三天佔領台北之類,而是中國先佔領一兩個金門彭湖之類的台灣離島、或封鎖台灣海峽一帶航線,甚至可能連這些也不做只是多加戰機擾台。這種僵持的戰爭局勢很可能會維持一段極長時間,以利於習包子以戰時狀態為籍口,進一步在國內實施集中營式統治,暴力鎮壓因經濟問題產生的民間反對聲浪與異見。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">不要以為香港會置身於台海戰事之外,剛好相反,香港是處在刀口浪尖之地。台海一旦開戰,香港立即被美國制裁是大概率的事,而港元和美元的聯繫匯率,在開戰前就會先脫鈎。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">戰爭風險是一個高度不確定的領域,比政策風險更甚,但我們不可能、也不可以因為害怕戰爭而影響正常的生活作息,能做到的,是將一部份資產以離岸形式轉到國外,可能的話制定緊急撤離計劃,然後正常生活。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">總結</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">退休後的風險和挑戰是多方面的,但是通過制定計劃,你可以減輕這些風險的影響。退休並不是停止人生,而是開始新的人生,你甚至可能在無意間用自己的興趣創造了多元化收入。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">以下有一些值得再強調的退休事項,包括但不限於:</span></p><p role="presentation" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre;"></p><ol><li><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">保持健康:健康是最重要的財富,要保持良好的健康狀態,適當的運動量、健康的飲食習慣、充足的睡眠、戒煙限酒必不可少,並進行定期的體檢與健康檢查。</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;">社交活動:社交活動可以幫助你擺脫孤獨和無助的感覺,參加社區活動、加入俱樂部、學習新技能等,有宗教信仰的定期參加教會活動,皆可以擴大自己的社交圈子。</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;">持續學習:退休後利用時間閱讀、學習新技能和知識,不僅可以幫助你保持活力和熱情,還可以增加你的自信和價值。</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;">足夠保險:保險可以幫助你減輕預期不到的財務風險影響,例如購買定期壽險、醫療保險和危疾保險等,以保護自己和家人的生活。</span></li></ol><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">最後我必須說,財務自由或退休,我們需要考慮可能的風險並採取適當的措施。但大家要明白,人生本來就是一場冒險,即使我們盡了最大的努力,也無法完全避免風險和不確定性。一些風險,我們就算預見了也只能承認(Acknowledge)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">但是,正因為人生中的風險無處不在,在每一次風險中,卻也蘊含了無限的可能性和希望。我相信,只要我們擁有信心和勇氣,就可以在生命中的每一次挑戰中不斷探尋和發現無盡的可能性,活出真實、真正的自己。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">以上所述,同樣適用於移民!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">前篇:</span><span style="text-align: left; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="http://laxinvest.blogspot.com/2023/03/blog-post.html" target="_blank">財務自由後的風險</a></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有會員文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-69483767928731105082023-04-04T13:55:00.001+08:002023-04-04T13:55:38.399+08:00 後疫情時代,你生活如何?<span id="docs-internal-guid-786c9d4e-7fff-cf67-0457-262095cd265a"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2022年12月1日,解除室外口罩令;2023年2月20日,解除室內口罩令;2023年3月6日,校園全面解除口罩。這是在台灣。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2023年3月1日,全球最後一個口罩令解除。這是在香港。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">今天,你出外還在戴口罩嗎?還有人繼續在打疫苗嗎?還有人覺得不舒服立即進行快檢嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">疫情,好像過去了,卻又好像沒有過去,陰魂不散,魂牽夢縈。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">無論在台灣或香港,當我們出外,總會見到百份之九十的人仍戴著口罩,那口罩似乎怎麼也脫不下來。像我這種堅持不再戴口罩出外的人,竟是少數中的少數。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">可以理解的,三年來的習慣,令口罩成為身體的一部份,直至現在我每次不罩出門,還是有一點失落感,就是好像沒穿衣服裸體出外那種感覺。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">但是,我告訴自己,這種感覺必須克服。脫下口罩,才是真正的復常,回復真正的正常生活,回復以往真正的正常人類生活。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">脫下口罩,代表我們從那原本就不應該出現、卻從某厲害國實驗室跑出來、殘害了全球千百萬生命的武漢肺炎的陰影中,走出來!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">女兒和我相反,不管是上學還是出去吃飯,只要一踏出家門口她必然戴上口罩。對於個人選擇,我只有尊重,反正她不戴口罩,臉上也早有明顯的口罩印記了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">在台灣,罩不罩是公民自由,你想怎樣都可以。但在香港,就不能那麼隨意了。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">現在的香港,有人敢戴上黃色口罩嗎?恐怕就算是黑色口罩和黑色衣服也不敢輕易戴穿出街吧。一個曾經的國際城市,竟淪落到公民選擇衣著顏色也要戰戰兢兢,生怕觸犯當局的超級敏感神經。舉報文化下,港人還必須時刻提訪時刻潛在的小人暗箭威脅,當「香港加油」也成為敏感詞,一部拍得很爛的維尼電影也因某些說不出口的原因下架時,白色恐怖已是無處不在。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">另一方面,據香港民意研究所去年12月公佈的民調顯示,港府的滿意度有42%、不滿意為39%,滿意度淨值是正3個百分點,創2018年12月以來的新高。嗯,大家認為在國安法的陰霾下,市民回應民調講真話的機會有多高?講真話會否被視於「煽動仇恨政府」?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">一些港人繼續戴罩的理由,是否和台灣有點不一樣?是否對「禁蒙面法」的逆權表現?是否在僅有的空間裡,珍惜僅有的選擇權,不甘於當奴才的另一種表現?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">一個荒謬的城市,當政治、法律、施政的種種荒唐成為日常,自我審查、人人自危、動輒得咎,人們就只能借助一些社會事件宣泄。蔡天鳳事件,一桩表面上謀財害命的刑事案件,愈揭愈多,愈揭愈黑暗,逐漸涉及警方包庇黑幕、黑白相互勾結、司法明顯不公、強姦犯逍遙法外、通緝犯自由出入、社會名流和黑道關係糾纏不清等等,形成一個複雜而黑暗的網絡。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">事件的調查中,真相、準真相、偽真相、謠言、八卦等各種消息滿天飛,是民心借事件表達不滿的一種反應?是對現狀反感的宣泄口?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">這一座國際城市,這麼近、那麼遠,這是一座言論審查下的高壓城市,一座官匪難分的城市,一座遊行要遵從政府指示戴狗牌的城市……</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">當真.香港人已散佈全球,遍及香港、英國、台灣、澳洲、加拿大、美國……大家的生活如何?已忘記初衷了嗎?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">一位移英的網友如是說:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">「剛到英國的頭三四個月,我天真地以為這裡的香港人就好像一些KOL或文宣聊天室那樣,在繼續抗爭,以為大家繼續像2019年的真.香港人那樣,為同一個理想無分彼此、同舟共濟。原來就像少林足球內的大師兄所說,那團火熄了,不熄,連在英國生存的能力都沒有……</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">據我觀察,這裡的香港人與2019年612的民意分佈有相似地方,假設700多萬人中,200多萬上街的都屬於偏黃,偏藍、小粉紅和廢老大概再佔一百多至兩百萬,剩下的300多萬人就是其他沒有明確表態的港人。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我感覺到,現在來到英國的大部份都是這班當年選擇獨善其身的300多萬港人,當中涉及好多原因,包括年紀、賺錢能力、資產水平、心繫香港的程度、法律和出入境風險等等,自然出現了一些歸屬感問題。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">每一次有機會去社區論壇,我都會舉手發問:正在坐牢的手足,以後出來後如何幫助他們?BNO Visa會否等他們?如果BNO Visa計劃好像台灣早年的投資移民那樣,被一班無心入藉、純粹為一己私利幫自己財產同家人買保障的港人『玩爛』,我不敢想像這班手足和年輕人會變成怎樣。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">其實我早已知道,這就是人性。2019至2020年大家一鼓作氣,但人是不可能長期處於抗爭和大無畏狀態,當我們從『伊甸園』返回面對『凡間』,會很灰!但實在有必要醒悟。」</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我了解並認同這位網友的失望和無奈,他見到的不止發生在英國,同時也發生在台灣,因為都是同一類香港人。這些人糾纏於指責台灣政府拒港移民於門外,對滯台手足卻不聞不問。我只能說:</span></p><ol style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: 6pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">有能力移民的絕大部份不是站在前線的一群,不計混水摸魚的「藍屍」,其他大概率就是所謂「港豬」和淺黃;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: 6pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">一向以來,對政治漠不關心才是港人的日常,2019年的抗爭,那種團結某程度算是天時地利下的激情,激情不是不好,只是難以持久;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: 6pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我們必須明白,香港人本質不是戰士,99%港人首先照顧的肯定是自己的日常生活,這很難怪他們,只能平常心視之;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: 6pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我們需要有合理的期望,在某方面,港人有「計到盡」的特質,人性本是自私的,但港人這種特質更顯,因為大家都在一個經濟掛帥、追求效率的競爭環境下長大;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: 6pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">隨著時間過去,敢出面講話的港人會愈來愈少,因為大多數人會不時回港,基於香港的國安法,他們將逐漸沉默,這點也不能苛求;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: 6pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">但我相信,只要保留心底的初衷,在適當的時候,當初的激情還是會再度爆發;</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; margin-left: 6pt; padding-left: 6pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">所以,暫時我們只能先做好自己,好好生活,毋忘初衷,能力範圍下做多一點,這已是對那個極權政府的最好報復。</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">至於BNO VISA是否像台灣投資移民那樣被人「玩爛」,不在我們的控制範圍內,不過我認為手足日後的路未必是BNO VISA,就像台灣政府幫助手足留在台灣的方法,從來不是被人「玩爛」的投資或專業移民。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我們也許暫未有能力如黑暗榮耀女主那樣復仇,但我們仍可以選擇不低頭、不原諒,在自己能力範圍內保護弱勢的真香港人,以行動削弱敵人實力。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我們可以選擇忘記過去五年發生過的事,也可以選擇記住那一筆筆血帳;我們可以選擇忘記一顆東方之珠曾經如此明亮過,也可以選擇記住極權統治如何毀滅一座國際城市;我們可以選擇好像病毒從未出現過,也可以選擇記住某國如何使病毒出走全球、如何戕害數以百萬的人命、如何造成數以千億美元的經濟損失,現在又如何與另一邪惡帝國結盟......</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">好好生活,毋忘初衷,兄弟爬山,各自努力!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有會員文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><br />風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-71794935465879006062023-03-21T12:29:00.001+08:002023-03-21T12:29:42.997+08:00 瑞信風暴 - AT1債券是甚麼<span id="docs-internal-guid-712ba181-7fff-eb8f-e287-e64ca64c900d"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">原本瑞銀收購瑞信是一件回復市場信心的好事,卻因瑞士央行的支持而啟動了瑞信AT1債券的團滅,由於結果是債權人竟比股東蒙受更高損失,引發了強烈反應和對AT1債券市場前景的恐慌。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">不過,AT1債券本身就是債券類別中的最高風險等級,早在2020年我寫過一篇文章分享這種銀行資本協定下的債券風險,其中內容亦有收錄在</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">《懶系投資法》系列的</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">第二本書中,現在可以拿來重温了。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">不少投資者喜歡投資金融機構發行的債券,因為通常金融機構,尤其是銀行,都有比普通上市公司較高的評級,並有大得不能倒的特性。以投資級別的銀行為例,公司的平均違約率大約只有0.62%,許多聰明的投資者就想到,反正違約率這麼低,就選較低級但回報率高得多的Subordinate Note、永續債甚至Coco債就好啦,風險也沒有甚麼分別啦。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">一般投資者的理解,債券違約的條件,是公司出現財政困難而無法償還債息或本金,就會正式進入違約。公司通常先嘗試進行破產保護與債務重組(詳見公司破產怎麼辧),要是債權人不服氣,就能入稟法院申請清盤,然後變賣公司資產,再按債權順序把清盤所得還給債權人。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">照這樣的推理,不同級別的債券只是償還順序與損失本金百份比的不同,只要公司不破產,大家承擔的風險是一樣的。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">基本上這樣的理解沒有錯,除了銀行!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">銀行債券產品,關係到銀行資本協定,特別是經常聽到的「巴塞爾協議」。但在瞭解之前,首先要對背後複雜的資本管理及監管機構的思維有一點認識。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">一間大型的國際金融公司,例如大型銀行,如果宣佈破產,會對社會造成極大的震盪(大家回憶一下當年雷曼事件就會理解)。因此,在雷曼兄弟破產兩年後,世界主要國家的央行總裁與金融監管首長,在瑞士巴塞爾通過了「巴塞爾協議Ⅲ」,以加強金融機構管理,使全球金融業更安全,防止金融危機再發生。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">措施的目標,就是在某些警號出現時,銀行就要做點事情,確保經營能力不會持續惡化。而監管機構所使用的其中一個指標,就是資本充足率(Capital Adequacy Ratio)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">所謂資本充足率,說穿了就是銀行的財務實力。一旦發現資本充足率不足,一般的公司,應付辦法不外是配股/供股來擴大股本、或是變賣資產增加現金,但對於銀行來說,這都是很沒有面子的措施。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">所以,天才的金融精英們想出了一個好辧法:直接將一部份債務倒掉!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">情況就像一架載滿乘客正在高空飛行的飛機,機長發現油量可能不足以維持飛到安全的地方降落,為避免整架飛機墜落(公司破產),就將一部份乘客扔下飛機——而且沒有給降落傘的哦!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">銀行那些千奇百怪的債券產品投資者,就是那些準備被扔下飛機的乘客。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">好,接下來是沉悶的專業講解部份了,請做好心理準備。 </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9oQi-oWiBQwv1TMw5CTy0S10xOe-9vpyIto7EmXTR2k-64n1mIt1T_cpJYRF_BcQoUIqm4MFdzslhUy_2_qCZIGDuu5cyIfdKC1X1e2lWznwJwCoyiiaym6YUKlInE6XDL7wP8ZiRBQT4IRIJCFQ70IgOo9olIb2mIOWVTioVal4cp-ik-dY-J8vMvQ/s640/20201216%20-%20%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E8%B3%87%E6%9C%AC%E5%8D%94%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA(1).JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="299" data-original-width="640" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9oQi-oWiBQwv1TMw5CTy0S10xOe-9vpyIto7EmXTR2k-64n1mIt1T_cpJYRF_BcQoUIqm4MFdzslhUy_2_qCZIGDuu5cyIfdKC1X1e2lWznwJwCoyiiaym6YUKlInE6XDL7wP8ZiRBQT4IRIJCFQ70IgOo9olIb2mIOWVTioVal4cp-ik-dY-J8vMvQ/w400-h188/20201216%20-%20%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E8%B3%87%E6%9C%AC%E5%8D%94%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA(1).JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">如果大家有留意銀行業的數據,經常會看到上圖的CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1)、AT1 (Additional Tier 1)或T2 (Tier 2)之類字眼。這些是不同資本級別的名稱,共同構成銀行的資本充足率。當它們低於某個比率,就代表銀行的財務實力出現了問題。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">CET1與AT1,屬第一類資本(Tier 1 Capital),只看這個名稱,有很優質的感覺,對不對?嗯,確是很優質——不過是對監管機構與銀行而言。對投資者來說,第一類資本,則代表了第一級危險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1),指的是銀行的核心第一類資本,通常指公司股本的持有者,亦即大家熟悉的普通股投資者。股票投資的本質,大家都知道的,公司出事時股票是最快變廢紙的東西,只不過大家好像從未放在心上而已。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">如果CET1 Ratio過低想要提高,就要降低槓桿比率,對銀行的ROE有負面影響。所以,天才的金融精英們想出了一個絕妙的辧法——搞一些平時不是T1,但危機出現時卻變成T1的東西,這就是AT1 (Additional Tier 1)資本的由來。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">AT1就是在特定情況下變成CET1的東西,其最大特色,不,應該是唯一目的,就是拿來彌補虧損(Loss Absorption)——不是銀行彌補你的虧損,而是你彌補銀行的虧損。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">AT1的債券,只要觸發特定條件——通常是CET1 Ratio跌至某百份比——即使銀行還未進入違約,債權人也會遭受損失。這種損失,通常以兩種形式實現:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">第一種是直接不再履行該筆債項的義務,包括不派息(配息)與不償還本金,優先股與某些次順位永續債(Subordinated Perpetual Note)都屬於這一種。這種產品的派息與否由銀行全權決定,不派息的話也不算違約。這就是文首所說,第一批直接被丟下飛機的乘客。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">第二種是Coco債(Contingent Convertible Bond)。Coco債堪稱是金融史上最具創意的金融產品,在觸發條件時,Coco債就會被強制以特定價格轉換成銀行的普通股——投資者由債權人變成了負債人,真是天才的構思!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">不要以為你手持的債券不是屬於AT1類別就沒事,當扔下第一批乘客後,如果機長發現油量仍然不大夠,就會扔下第二批乘客——T2 (Tier 2)債券的投資者。這個時候,代表銀行進入了PONV (Point of Non-viability)的臨界點,已經無法繼續經營下去了,所以T2的工具也要拿來彌補虧損。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">T2工具包括償債順序高於AT1債券的次順位債、較高級的Coco債等等。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">如果情況壞到連扔下第二批乘客也還未達標,就輪到第三批乘客了——即所有符合TLAC (Total Loss Absorbing Capacity)架構的債券,因為這些債券也具有損失吸收能力,其中甚至包括了高級無擔保債券。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">記住,這時銀行還未破產,只是在暫停經營狀態。當第三批乘客被扔下去後,銀行得以繼續經營——飛機繼續飛行,乘客卻跌死了,而且大多數死得不明不白。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我們投資債券,判斷其合理價格的基礎是其評級(Credit Rating)及與無風險債務的息差(Risk Free Spread)。而評級又代表了其違約風險的數字,例如標準普爾評級A-的公司,其每年的違約率低至0.05%,代表債權人一年內被違約的可能性低至0.05%。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">但是,在銀行資本協定下,即使銀行未進入違約,債權人也可能遭受損失。因此,單靠發行人的評級,你根本衡量不了具TLAC架構的銀行債券要負擔的實際風險。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">也許大型銀行確實是大得不能倒(Too Big to Fail),但世上沒有免費的午餐,只有等價交換。銀行不能倒,代價就是投資者代他倒,是投資者用血肉築成萬里長城,才使銀行不倒。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">最後一句,債券結構可以千變萬化,投資前需注意其中的細節,避免自己在不知情之下,被機長扔下飛機,死不瞑目。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlr4AXei1wrX83v62SfohTMAkwCZmXFay7lV51OwpXAcRm_v5Hc-e_U_nShPghQOpL4tMo8ipipl_YSzPBw__tpNQQ7UZCVFN4k5S6ATdixklt3o4MpSHnR1Ev4d--_TfZh9bH5TbEM-Rj3-CuH8L_fDwUB94Rse74RF6Uoi3Liu96DYgwRnmAyp3WuA/s640/20201216%20-%20%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E8%B3%87%E6%9C%AC%E5%8D%94%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA(3).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="640" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlr4AXei1wrX83v62SfohTMAkwCZmXFay7lV51OwpXAcRm_v5Hc-e_U_nShPghQOpL4tMo8ipipl_YSzPBw__tpNQQ7UZCVFN4k5S6ATdixklt3o4MpSHnR1Ev4d--_TfZh9bH5TbEM-Rj3-CuH8L_fDwUB94Rse74RF6Uoi3Liu96DYgwRnmAyp3WuA/w400-h270/20201216%20-%20%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E8%B3%87%E6%9C%AC%E5%8D%94%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA(3).png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br />(節錄自Patreon,全文:</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/45095706" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.patreon.com/posts/45095706</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p><br />風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5942568277233109422.post-47655811686833975152023-03-09T20:00:00.001+08:002023-03-09T20:00:00.227+08:00 財務自由後的風險<p><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 聊到財務自由和退休,人人情況不同,有人退休後才找到真正目標達成理想,卻也有人退休後因無所事事而情緒憂鬱,其分別在於退休前有否做好充足的準備和安排,包括心境、經濟、興趣、目標各方面,更重要的是,對退休風險的認知與管理。</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-6a265868-7fff-c525-f185-f7e217cab278"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 退休或自認為財務自由退下職場,失去主動收入的同時也就代表將面臨一系列新的風險。很多人以為退休風險只是指經濟上的風險,事實上不止經濟風險,還有健康、個人規劃、住房、配偶、家人、意外等各方面都有的挑戰。美國精算協會曾發表一份報告,研究如何管理退休後的風險(見</span><a href="https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2020/post-retirement-strategies-secure-chart.pdf" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Managing Post-Retirement Risks: Strategies for a Secure Retirement</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">),藉這份報告的其中一些重點,這裡就聊聊我個人的一些看法。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 退休最直接面對的首先是經濟風險,其中又包括通貨膨脹(通脹)風險、利率風險和投資風險等等。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">通脹風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 現時最普遍應對通脹風險的策略是4% Safe Withdrawal Rate,即每年提取生活費一次,第一年4%,之後每年提取的金額按通脹調整。計算上,假設通脹為3%,以這策略只需每年7%回報率,資產就可以維持到53年才花光,如增加至每年8%回報率,更可保證資產永遠花不完。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 此策略的最大缺點是在高通脹時會失效,而現在我們就處於高通脹時期,令不少退休人仕憂心忡忡、坐立難安。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 但其實我們回看歷史,通脹高於3%的時刻並不多,以下分別是是歐洲和美國歷年通脹率的走勢圖:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrXB18XIrUm_z7VCRUna8UY_y3ged-7nO3YuLBje1-36SqcA_dJNNLa5J0QFCK4idDot3Nji693sQhI53aeawcX96z3n_j8uBKclMMjB3NAzHuymEnSVLzF_zZjtKtjrPq8xEbDF0hEibyyz36zmsWscKkbfZx4Kz4rtGH5K23PXu94q6CgNzSNEb9Sg/s897/20230222%20-%20%E8%B2%A1%E5%8B%99%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%BE%8C%E7%9A%84%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="897" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrXB18XIrUm_z7VCRUna8UY_y3ged-7nO3YuLBje1-36SqcA_dJNNLa5J0QFCK4idDot3Nji693sQhI53aeawcX96z3n_j8uBKclMMjB3NAzHuymEnSVLzF_zZjtKtjrPq8xEbDF0hEibyyz36zmsWscKkbfZx4Kz4rtGH5K23PXu94q6CgNzSNEb9Sg/w400-h259/20230222%20-%20%E8%B2%A1%E5%8B%99%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%BE%8C%E7%9A%84%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL27r28FhstMGg1KKiKQ1oYuE4eHCaCQxj085-Mc_TBjwsP70itLpgXmcx_K6FHdn2exGgxobIJOYMHfHM4L9xeXgQkkGVuHYhB82iwVZ1_ag247bh6s_eU2A-EfTN-UZcywXmqpXeA2eEZFN85BOhKhTsE3Jw_sd4_DHX7CkPMvDFF711v5oGxHY4Pw/s902/20230222%20-%20%E8%B2%A1%E5%8B%99%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%BE%8C%E7%9A%84%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="587" data-original-width="902" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL27r28FhstMGg1KKiKQ1oYuE4eHCaCQxj085-Mc_TBjwsP70itLpgXmcx_K6FHdn2exGgxobIJOYMHfHM4L9xeXgQkkGVuHYhB82iwVZ1_ag247bh6s_eU2A-EfTN-UZcywXmqpXeA2eEZFN85BOhKhTsE3Jw_sd4_DHX7CkPMvDFF711v5oGxHY4Pw/w400-h260/20230222%20-%20%E8%B2%A1%E5%8B%99%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%BE%8C%E7%9A%84%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 過去幾十年,平均通脹大約在2-3%之間。理財需要的是長遠的目光和不受短期氣氛影響的意志,有時通脹帶來的真正覆滅性風險並不在通脹本身,而是我們因短期的高通脹而作出的過度反應,例如因過度擔心而突然改變自己的投資風格,將資產轉為全攻型而追入市場熱點的「增長股」,這些心理衍生的風險,比實質通脹風險更可怕。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 大部份人建議對抗通脹風險的策略,是在投資組合中加入適當的抗通脹資產,例如增長型股票。但是,這類資產價值在短期內有很大差異,某程度上是在以金融市場風險換取通脹風險。更重要的是,較高的風險和較高的回報並不是直接相關,不穩定的回報代表不可能提供絕對可靠的抗通脹保護。因此,增長型資產在退休組合中只宜佔一小部份,我的建議是在10%以內。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 而與通脹真正掛鈎的資產,例如TIPS或隨通脹調整的年金計劃,是可以考慮納入投資組合內。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 租金是通脹的一大部份,經常是通脹的源頭,所以自置物業對退休人仕來說是必需品。你可以不作任何投資,但一定要有自住房產,這不止是對沖通脹這麼簡單,萬一年老又逢投資失敗或有意外發生,自住房產就是最後防線(例如逆按揭、抵押貸款、大換小等等)。再說一次,自置物業是退休人仕的必需品!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> REIT可以是投資組合的一部份,但不可能完全代替實質房產,領匯的供股事件已給很多人上了一課。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 收租物業是一個可考慮選項,債、房、股可以是退休組合的三支腳柱,但也許並不適用於所有國家和地區。在一些地區,收租對很多退休人仕來說知易行難,除回報率的考慮外,有另一系列的風險,包括維修、空租期、租霸等等,容易淪為為租客打工。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 如果你想依靠炒房來對抗通脹,結果可能更糟,因為不同地區、不同型態的房產價值變化可以很大,未必會如你所願隨通脹上升,同時房產的套現時間長、交易成本高,機動性相當弱。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 我個人還是喜歡退休人仕的投資組合以固定收益資產與穩定收益資產為主,增長型資產與REITs類資產為輔,另加自住物業與TIPS類資產。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">利率風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 利率風險和通脹風險有一點關係,較低的利率往往意味著較低的通脹。但低利率又代表較低的利息收入,可能影響退休人仕的生活。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 減低利率風險的方法,是在我們的投資組合中配置一定比例的長期債券以鎖定利率,同時增加浮息利率資產的比重。其餘中短期債券資產,可使用「債券梯」(Bond Ladder)策略去平緩利率波動。有些人喜歡投資高股息股票,雖然這類標的也是較少受低利率影響,但另方面會帶來較高市場價格風險,與及派息的不確定性。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 進階的投資者,如果懂得在低利率時代適當使用槓桿增加回報,也是對抗利率風險的一大利器。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">投資風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這裡的投資風險,指的是金融市場的波動帶來的價格風險,這是很多退休人仕跨不過去的坎。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 退休人仕的投資組合中可能包括債券、股票、基金、ETF、期權等等,如果股票類資產比較多,在極長期表現來看可能提供較高回報,但短期由於經濟和股市的波動,資產帳面價值會大幅波動,從而導致退休人仕想從投資組合中提取收入時遭遇到「報酬順序風險」(Sequence of Return Risk, SRR)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 所謂「報酬順序風險」,簡單來說就是被迫在價格不佳時將資產變賣,大大減損了未來收入的潛力。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 想像一下,如果你有主動收入,股市債市大幅下跌不但不需沽資產,還可以用每月的儲蓄去逢低買進,但退休人仕就沒有這種能力,相反是要賣出變現來過日子。危機在於,在市場下跌和你需要金錢過日子的兩方夾擊下,你的投資組合價格將大幅下降,而且恐怕再也無法復原,進而使得你以後的退休生活都得節儉度日甚至要重出江湖!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這其實沒有完美解決的方法,減低投資風險的方法不外乎是分散投資,與及定期再平衡。其中以固定收益資產為核心的現金流投資組合是波動性相對低的組合,加上不管高潮低潮都能提供源源不絕的現金流,算是最好的配置。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 對這類現金流投資者而言,投資組合淨值的下跌其實對心理上的打擊更大(即使相對股市跌幅已算很低),在草木皆兵風聲鶴唳的時刻需要強大的心理質素加持,應對方法包括保持一定程度的現金、擁有彈性的財務計畫並根據狀況作調整、不要因恐慌而隨便改變自己的投資風格等等。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">健康風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 健康風險包括了日益增長的醫療費用和長期看護費用,甚至是太過長壽帶來的資金不夠用風險(對,太過長壽也有風險)。這部份風險,我認為只能靠及早購買保險來轉移,其中定期壽險、醫療保險和危疾保險我認為是必須有的,其次是意外保險和較少見的失能險。至於儲蓄型或投資型保險,則絕對要避開。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這方面的詳細分享,可參見「</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/44650609" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">怎樣買保險才精明?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">」一文。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">詐騙風險</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這裡所說的詐騙風險,不止是指新聞報導上的騙財騙色或參與龐氏投資那類騙局,更多的是聽信一些財演或KOL的貼士、明牌、快速致富秘技、或「無風險投資法」,貿然將身家投入進去。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 公平來講,很多KOL誤導的案例不屬於詐騙,其免責聲明通常亦說得滴水不漏。我將之歸類於詐騙風險,是想指出我們不一定是遇上詐騙集團才會被騙,更常見的是受害者貿然跟隨某些KOL或只有半桶水的所謂專家(你可以認為我也包括在內),缺乏獨立思考的能力。只顧追求回報而漠視風險的人,不是輸錢就是等著輸錢。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">結語</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這一篇文章針對的是退休後的財務風險,其實退休的風險遠不止財務方面,還有心理風險、配偶風險、家庭風險、政策風險、戰爭風險、意外風險等等。這些風險可能比財務風險更重要,在</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">「</span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/79618196" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">財務自由後的風險(續)</span></a><span style="font-family: PMingLiu; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">」一文中有詳細闡述。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 財務自由或退休,本是一件樂事,這一篇卻寫得好像危機四伏,主要是想提醒大家,人生沒有事情是一勞永逸的。退休有退休的挑戰,需要有相配的心理質素和能力,並不代表甚麼也不必做。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 24pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 這就是人生。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (節錄自Patreon文章)</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">******************************************************</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 歡迎同道中人加入我的Patreon,閱讀所有會員文章,一齊討論、一齊交流、一齊進步。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Patreon: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.patreon.com/laxinvest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Facebook: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.facebook.com/chaseinwind/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Blogspot: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><a href="https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://laxinvest.blogspot.com/</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p>風中追風http://www.blogger.com/profile/01518501085208630672noreply@blogger.com